Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014

[politicus]

First provincial result:

Maputo City

Turnout 60.2%. Almost 282,000 registered voters in Maputo did not cast their ballots.


Presidential Election:

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) 287,674 (68.8%)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 86,326 (20.7%)

Davis Simango (MDM) 43,868 (10.5%)


Parliamentary election:

Frelimo 257,829 (62.7%) (11)

Renamo 82,447 (20.0%) (3)

MDM 64,490 (15.7%) (2)

The remaining 2,6% were scattered among 24 minor parties, only five of whom picked up more than 0.1% of the votes.

Frelimo's share of the vote has fallen significantly since the 2009 elections, where Guebuza won 80.4% of the Maputo presidential vote and Frelimo won 76,5% of the parliamentary vote

The parliamentary results mean that Frelimo takes 11 of the 16 seats allocated to Maputo city, Renamo 3 and MDM 2. In 2009 the city had 18 seats, 14 went to Frelimo, 3 to MDM, and 1 to Renamo.

The result is very disappointing for MDM, which failed to build on its succes in the 2013 municipal elections. But the 2013 polls were boycotted by Renamo, so MDM picked up the entire opposition vote.
Renamo's re-entry into electoral politics has clearly stripped away most of MDM's support.

The provincial results are still provisional. They will not become definitive until they have been confirmed by the National Elections Commission (CNE), but that should be a formality, since all major parties agree on them.

[politicus]

Renamo boss Afonso Dhlakama believes he won the election last Wednesday (but then again Dhlakama believes he has won every elections since 1994), and says he wants a national unity government and are calling for negotiations between Renamo and Frelimo to establish such a government with the task of totally restructuring the state apparatus and security forces to remove Frelimo influence. There would then be new elections in two years.

He says the polling on Wednesday was not a real election, and that "the world community should not accept in Africa an election which would not be acceptable in Europe" and instead support a unity government that would finally bring democracy to Mozambique.

Meanwhile he is maintaining the always implicit threat of violence. Young Renamo supporters attacked polling stations in Tete and Ihla de Mocambique on election day, and Renamo has not demobilised or disarmed all the forces remobilised for the 2012-13 insurrection. Dhlakama says he doesn't want violence, but his supporters are angry and he just isn't sure he can control them (all those young hotheads..). He also utters enigmatic statements such as: "Violence is not necessary if Frelimo negotiates and is not itself violent, as the "Frelimo police" were on polling day". So violence isn't in itself violent, gotcha Aphonso!

As examples of what he wants Dhlakama cites the national unity governments in Kenya 2008-13 and Zimbabwe 2009-13 (and we all know how well they turned out...).

Frelimo will obviously not accept a unity government. In the 1990-92 Rome peace talks Renamo had to accept the legitimacy of the government and constitution, which Dhlakama finally agreed to after two years of dragging his feet - and for Frelimo that is the basis for modern Mozambican politics. But as observers point out the importance of the Kenya example is that there was high level international mediation and the government was hugely expanded to create posts for the opposition. Dhlakama probably hopes that diplomats will put pressure on Frelimo and the government to make major concessions, even if not granting a unity government at least more Renamo people in state institutions. He already got a lot of his guys into the army and provincial administrations following the 2013 peace talks.

[politicus]

While still awaiting the final result it may be time to do a bit of status on this election:

1. Violence paid off for Renamo, which doubled their votes from 2009. Going into the bush and not returning before they had gotten concessions from Frelimo regained the trust of the dissatisfied, that Renamo is the only force capable of shaking the Frelimo hegemony.

2. MDM's success in the municipal elections last year was just because Renamo boycotted them. Even in a town like Quemane where MDM is in charge and has apparently done a good job, they don't get more than 10-12% of the national vote. It is of course very disappointing from a pro-democracy POV, that violence paid off and good governance wasn't rewarded.

3. Neither Renamo's populism nor MDM running on liberalism regarding constitutional rights, direct democracy and strengthening the private sector appeals to people in southern Mozambique. To cut into Frelimo's southern hegemony a party would need to run to the left of Frelimo criticizing the government for being too pro-business and neglecting rural areas and the poor. Dhlakama tried to position himself as the champion of the poor and gained a bit, but most southerners will never vote Renamo, the scars from the civil war runs too deep.

4. With a reduced Frelimo majority the interesting thing is if the Frelimo left wing around Luisa Diogo will get more leverage. If Frelimo only has around 140 of 250 seats, 15 deserters would be enough to vote down the government. The best thing for democracy would be a Frelimo split between leftists and the dominant pro-business wing, but given how valuable the Frelimo brand is and how beneficial it is to be a member of the party of power, this is unlikely. Still, there are obvious fault lines within Frelimo and one can always hope. It happened in Botswana with the BDP i 2010 and - less succesfully - in Namibia when RDP split from SWAPO in 2007.

5. Turnout is still dismal, even if it did go up from 45% to 50%. This probably reflects that many people are fed up with both Frelimo and Renamo and see no point in choosing between them and MDM is not seen as attractive by most poors and rubes (and in Mozambique that is 90% of the population), since it is viewed as the party for the well educated middle class.

[politicus]

Niassa

A Frelimo stronghold in the far north, where they got hammered, but still retained a majority. Very low turnout, so Frelimo failed to mobilize their supporters. Too many invalid votes indicates fraud, and there are a couple of complaints being investigated.
Note that the two opposition candiates got 50%+ combined, which is unheard of in traditional Frelimo territory.

Presidential election

Number of registered voters - 615,065

Number who voted - 288,831

Turnout - 46.95%

Valid votes - 249,698 (86.5 per cent)

Blank ballots - 22,992 (8.0 per cent)

Invalid votes - 16,141 (5.6 per cent)

Candidates (percentages of valid votes)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 120,818 (48.4 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 111,114 (44.5 per cent)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 17,776 (7.1 per cent)


Parliamentary election

Number who voted - 269,899

Turnout - 43.9 per cent

Valid votes - 224,691 (83.3 per cent)

Blank ballots - 25,604 (9.5 per cent)

Invalid votes - 19,604 (7.3 per cent)

Parties (percentages of valid votes)

Frelimo - 113,496 (50.51 per cent)

Renamo - 91,743 (40.8 per cent)

MDM - 18,105 (8.1 per cent)

These figures do not add up to 100%, because the many minor parties on the ballot paper, who took a handful of votes between them, have been disregarded.

Niassa will have 14 seats in the new parliament, and on the basis of this result, Frelimo will take 8 of them, Renamo 5 and the MDM 1. In the 2009 election, Frelimo won 12 seats in Niassa, Renamo two and the MDM none. So, on the basis of these calculations, Frelimo will lose 4 seats, 3 of them to Renamo and 1 to the MDM.

[politicus]

Cabo Delgado

Frelimo stronghold where the started the liberation war in 1964 and Nyusis home province remains a bastion for them, but a high number of blank votes indicate dissatisfation in an area where voting Renamo is just not an option for most people.

Presidential election

Registered voters - 964,071

Number who voted - 477,463

Turnout 49.53%

Valid votes - 416,154 (87.16 per cent)

Blank ballots - 44,211 (9.26 per cent)

Invalid votes - 17,098 (3.58 per cent)

Candidates (percentages of valid votes)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 324,857 (78.06 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 75,568 (18.16 per cent)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 15,729 (3.78 per cen)

Parliamentary election

Number who voted - 473,567

Turnout - 49.12%

Valid votes - 400,580 (84.59 per cent)

Blank ballots - 55,117 (11.64 per cent)

Invalid votes - 17,870 (3.77 per cent)

Parties (percentage of valid votes)

Frelimo - 310,608 (77.54 per cent)

Renamo - 69,167 (17.27 per cent)

MDM - 19,175 (5 per cent)

The remaining 1% of the votes were scattered around about two dozen minor parties whose names were on the ballot papers.

This parliamentary vote means that 17 of Cabo Delgado's 22 seats will go to Frelimo, four to Renamo and one to the MDM. In 2009, the seats divided 18 for Frelimo and four for Renamo. So on these calculations, Frelimo will lose 1 seat to the MDM.

[politicus]

Manica

This is traditionally an opposition stronghold, but went 70% Guebuza in the Frelimo landslide in 2009, this time Dhlakama won the presidential election, but Frelimo won the parliamentary election.

Numbers are from “Diario de Mocambique” , not the electoral commission, and only includes valid votes, which is a shame since protest voting with blank ballots and possible fraud reflected in high numbers of invalid votes are interesting elements, but Manica had a clean poll according to EU observers.

Dhlakama took 48.5 per cent of the vote and Filipe Nyusi got 47.8 per cent. For Frelimo this is a sharp decline. In the previous election. In 2009 Armando Guebuza, won in Manica with 70.4 per cent of the vote. Dhlakamas share of the vote more than double, from 22.2 per cent to 48.5 per cent. Daviz Simango saw his vote fall from 7.4 to 3.8 per cent.

In the parliamentary poll Frelimo finished ahead of Renamo, but behind the combined opposition and looks set to lose a third of their 12 Manica seats in the current parliament.

The results, as given in “Diario de Mocambique” are:


Presidential election

Valid votes - 349,559

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 169,359 (48.45%)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 167,018 (47.77%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 13,182 (3.77%)


Parliamentary election

Frelimo - 156,835

Renamo - 147,087

MDM - 16,276

"Since “Diario de Mocambique” did not mention the number of blank ballots or invalid votes, it is impossible to calculate the exact turnout, but since Manica has 712,938 registered voters, the turnout looks to be around 50 per cent.

Nor did the paper cite figures for the numerous minor parties contesting the parliamentary election, making it impossible to give exact percentages for the 3 main parties. According to observer group AIM  breakdown of the 16 seats allocated to Manica in the next parliament will be 8 to Frelimo, 7 to Renamo and 1 to MDM. In the 2009 elections, Frelimo won 12 seats and Renamo took 4, whereas MDM was barred from standing in Manica in 2009.  So Frelimo will lose 4 of its Manica seats, 3 of which will go to Renamo and 1 to MDM.

[politicus]

Inhambane

Registered voters - 598,276

Number who voted - 327,773

Turnout - 54.78 per cent


Presidential election

Blank ballots - 14,051 (4.29%)

Invalid votes - 11,460 (3.49%)

Valid votes - 302,262 (92.22%)
----------------------------------------

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 228,819 (75.7%)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 57,523 (19.03%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 15,920 (5.27%)


Parliamentary election

Blank ballots - 25,145

Invalid votes - 15,768



Frelimo - 207,642 (72.05 per cent)

Renamo - 44.055 (15.29 per cent)

MDM - 15,941 (5.18 per cent)

More than 7% of the valid votes were scattered around a large number of minor parties on the ballot papers.

Inhambane has 14 seats in parliament, and 12 will go to Frelimo and 2 to Renamo.

In the last election, in 2009, Inhambane had 16 seats, 15 of which went to Frelimo and 1 to Renamo. So Frelimo will lose 3 Inhambane seats. Renamo gains 1, while the other 2 are lost because of demographic changes.

[politicus]

Tete

In the isolated and often troubled western province of Tete Afonso Dhlakama won, but Frelimo finished first in the parliamentary election.

531,953 people voted out of 971,644 registered voters, so a turnout of 54.75%.

Riots staged by Renamo supporters in the districts of Tsangano and Macanga on polling day led to the destruction of 22 polling stations, so its an incomplete count (the ballot boxes and the votes they contained were burned).

No decision has yet been taken as to whether the elections will be rerun in these parts of the province. Its before the Constitutional Council, Mozambique's highest body in matters of constitutional and electoral law. Until this decision is taken, any results from Tete can only be regarded as provisional.

Dhlakama won the presidential election with 49% of the vote to 46% for Nyusi. In the parliamentary election it was  48% Frelimo against 46% for Renamo.

But the harsh fact is that the Frelimo vote has collapsed in Tete. In 2009 , won 86% and Frelimo did even better, winning 87.2% of the vote.

Dhlakama's vote has soared from 8.8% in 2009 to almost 50% now, while  Simango has dropped from 5.3 to 4.4%

Some caution needs to be taken with the 2009 results, since there was substantial fraud in favour of Frelimo, notably in Changara district, where many polling stations claimed impossible turnouts of 100% or close to 100 per cent (there were even some with turnouts of over 100%, but the electoral bodies threw those out).


Presidential election

Valid Votes - 471,315

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) -231,972 (49.22%)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 218,850 (46.43%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 20,493 (4.35%)


Parliamentary election

Frelimo - 208,933

Renamo - 197,922

MDM - 26.343

Exact percentages for the parliamentary election can't be calculated, since the local media don't mention the results for minor parties, who will have picked up a couple of per cent between them.

These results mean that 11 of Tete's 22 seats will go to Frelimo, 10 to Renamo and 1 to the MDM.

In 2009, Tete only had 20 seats. 18 of these went to Frelimo and2 to Renamo (MDM was barred from standing in Tete). So Frelimo will lose seven Tete seats, Renamo will gain eight and MDM one.

[politicus]

UK based Mozambique Political Process Bulletin has analyzed the fraud situation.

Their basic premise is that reports of impossibly high turnouts is evidence of ballot box stuffing. Turnouts of more than 80% of registered voters are highly unlikely in Mozambique, especially in rural areas where people have to walk long distances. It is much more likely that there has been ballot box stuffing, either putting unused ballot papers into the ballot box, or simply changing the results sheets (editales) at the end of polling day.

The most extreme cases are from the southern Frelimo stronghold Gaza, where five districts report very high turnouts:

Chicualacuala 89%
Chigubo 82%
Mabalane 80%,
Massangena 96%
Massingir 92%.

These results are especially suspect when compared to equally loyal Frelimo areas of Gaza, such as Mandlakazi where the turnout was a more average 56%.

These five are small rural districts, but they have probably added 20,000 false votes for Frelimo and Filipe Nyussi.

"The Electoral Observatory (EO) also points to suspiciously high turnouts in Guija, Gaza, where we do not have a district result yet."

Another suspect district is Ka Nanyaka in Maputo city, which reported a turnout of 79% compared to a city-wide turnout of 60%. Again the EO finds suspiciously high turnouts in the sample polling stations in that district.

Mabote district in neighbouring Inhambane, with 81% turnout, was also reported by EO observers to have an impossibly high turnout.

EO data also point to ballot box stuffing in these districts:

Cabo Delgado: Muidumbe

Inhambane: Inhassoro and Panda

Nampula: Ilha de Mocambique and Nacala-a-Velha

Niassa: Mecula

Tete: Cahora Bassa, Changara and Zumbo

Most of these districts are strongly pro-Frelimo. The Tete districts are majority Frelimo with a significant Renamo vote. The Nampula districts are divided and hard fought. Ilha de Mocambique and Changara have a long history of ballot box stuffing in favour of Frelimo.

Nearly all ballot box stuffing has been in favour of Frelimo and its presidential candidate.

More than 5% of ballot boxes seems likely to have been stuffed

"We estimate that there was significant ballot box stuffing in more than 5% of polling stations, which probably increased the vote for Frelimo candidate Filipe Nyusi by more than 100,000."

Using the Electoral Observatory sample count they also estimate that there were problems such as very late opening or changed location for about 130 polling stations. Observers and party delegates reported cases of polling stations having an additional register book which was not on the official list of polling stations and register books. They suggest this happened in up to 250 polling stations.

The alternative NGO Electoral Observatory sample count collected data from observers in 1770 polling stations which were selected by statistical methods to be an accurate sample of the more than 17,000 polling stations. They use that informationto estimate the scale of problems.

The basic estimate is that any turnout above 80% is irregular and probably indicates ballot box stuffing. And the sample count found that 5% of all polling stations had a higher turnout. If that percentage applies to all polling stations, that suggests that there was significant ballot box stuffing by polling station staff (MMVs, membros das mesas de voto) in more than 850 polling stations, which could have added more than 100,000 votes for Filipe Nyusi. If that 100,000 is removed from his total, his share of the vote in the provisional count would fall nearly 1%, from 56.8% down to 55.9%

Turnouts of over 80% were particularly noted in Tete, Gaza, Inhambane, and Cabo Delgado. So southern and far north Frelimo heartland + ever troublesome Tete.

This estimate is based only on large-scale ballot box stuffing, there is also reported smaller scale ballot box stuffing, of a few extra ballot papers, which cant be identified by statistical methods.

Still, conntrary to last time the amount of fraud is so relatively limited this time, that the result is largely correct. Nyusi did win an outright majority and Frelimo did get over 50% of the seats in parliament, but their margin should have been lower.

The fraud has been slightly more sophisticatred this time. In 2009 there were district with 98-100% turnout (and even some 100%+ turnout district!).

[politicus]

Results now in from all provinces - some invalidated ballots will be acepted (likely between 10-20%), but it wont change the distribution much.

Basically the opposition had a majority in Central + Northern Mozambique taken as a whole, but Frelimos "Solid South" won it for them.

Far North

Niassa

Presidential election

Filipe Nyusi 120,818 48.39%

Afonso Dhlakama 111,114 44.5%

Daviz Simango 17,776 7.12%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 113,496 50.51%

Renamo 91,743 40.81%

MDM 18,105 8.06%


Cabo Delgado

Presidential election

Filipe Nyusi 324,857 78.06%

Afonso Dhlakama 75,568 18.16%

Daviz Simango 15,729 3.78%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 310,608 77.54%

Renamo 69,167 17.27%

MDM 19,175 5,00%


Lower North

Nampula

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama 375,592 49.46%

Filipe Nyusi 339,143 44.66%

Daviz Simango 44,587 5.87%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 306,676 45%

Renamo 299,311 43.73%

MDM 57,416 8.39%


Zambezia

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama 327,300 50.11%

Filipe Nyusi 268,856 41.16%

Daviz Simango 56,983 8.72%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 243,036 41.12%

Renamo 283,036 47.88%

MDM 65,033 11.00%


Central

Tete

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama 231,972 49.22%

Filipe Nyusi 218,850 46.43%

Daviz Simango 20,493 4.35%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 208,933 48.23%

Renamo 197,922 45.69%

MDM 26.343 6.08%



Sofala

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama 229,341 55.72%

Filipe Nyusi 146,043 35.48%

Daviz Simango 36,189 8.79%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 138,493 37.07%

Renamo 182,049 48.73%

MDM 53,040 14.20%


Manica

Presidential election

Afonso Dhlakama 169,359 48.45%

Filipe Nyusi 167,018 47.77%

Daviz Simango 13,182 3.77%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 156,835 49.02%

Renamo 147,087 45.93%

MDM 16,276 5.05%

South

Inhambane

Presidential election

Filipe Nyusi 228,819 75.7%

Afonso Dhlakama 57,523 19.03%

Daviz Simango 15,920 5.27%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 207,642 72.05%

Renamo 44.055 15.29%

MDM 15,941 5.18%


Gaza

Presidential election

Filipe Nyusi 342,470 93.79%

Afonso Dhlakama 11,591 3.17%

Daviz Simango 11,098 3.04%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 269,914 93.84%

Renamo 7,249 2.52%

MDM 10,454 3.63%


Maputo (province)

Presidential election

Filipe Nyusi 298,624 73.63%

Afonso Dhlakama 71,407 17.61%

Daviz Simango 35,543 8.76%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 265,508 68.27%

Renamo 66,684 17.15%

MDM 47,998 12.34%


Maputo City

Presidential election

Filipe Nyusi 287,674 68.84%

Afonso Dhlakama 86,326 20.66%

Daviz Simango 43,868 10.50%


Parliamentary election

Frelimo 257,829 62.69%

Renamo 82,447 20.05 %

MDM 64,490 15.68%

[politicus]

Renamo claims that the results released by the provincial elections commissions are "adulterated" and don't reflect what really occurred at the polling stations.

At a Renamo regional conference for central and northern Mozambique in Beira, Renamo declared that it had won 139 seats in the 7 northern and central provinces to just 34 for Frelimo and 14 for MDM and would not accept any results which did not agree 100% with its own count.

Even without counting the 4 southern provincial constituencies, these figures would give Renamo an absolute majority.

The problem is Renamo's numbers are wildly at odds, both with the official results and with the parallel count undertaken by the Electoral Observatory (the largest and most credible group of Mozambican election observers).


Alternative numbers

Renamos claims to parliamentary seats as reported by the independent TV station STV, are as follows (distribution of seats based on the results announced by the provincial commissions shown below for comparison):

Niassa: Renamo count: Renamo 9 seats, Frelimo 4, MDM 1

Provincial commission count: Renamo 6, Frelimo 7, MDM 1

Cabo Delgado: Renamo count: Renamo 11, Frelimo 11, MDM 0

Provincial commission count: Renamo 4, Frelimo 17, MDM 1

Nampula: Renamo count: Renamo 36, Frelimo 7, MDM 4

Provincial commission count: Renamo 21, Frelimo 22, MDM 4

Zambezia: Renamo count: Renamo 34, Frelimo 6, MDM 4

Provincial commission count: Renamo 22, Frelimo 18, MDM 5

Tete: Renamo count: Renamo 18, Frelimo 0, MDM 3

Provincial commission count: Renamo 10, Frelimo 11, MDM 1

Sofala: Renamo count: Renamo 18, Frelimo 0, MDM 3

Provincial commission count: Renamo 10, Frelimo 8, MDM 3

Manica: Renamo count: Renamo 13, Frelimo 3, MDM 0

Provincial commission count: Renamo 8, Frelimo 8, MDM 0

(the figures show signs of hasty work. The total number of seats allocated in the Renamo count to Zambezia and Tete are respectively 44 and 21 - yet there are 45 seats in Zambezia and 22 in Tete.)

Renamo has not bothered to tell how they have arrived at these extraordinary figures...


Lets share Gaza...

They also proposed an usual "solution" to part of their "southern problem":

Renamo has a specific problem with Gaza, which has never elected any Renamo candidates. According to the results released by the Gaza provincial elections commission, Renamo (and MDM) again failed to elect anybody in the province, and all 14 seats were won by Frelimo.

Renamo now  propose to divide Gaza in half, with seven seats going to Renamo and seven to Frelimo. If Frelimo finds this unacceptable, then Gaza should simply be excluded from the count!!!


"Incredible results"

The figures from the 11 provincial commissions show that Frelimo won just over 57% (2.74 million votes), Renamo 33.8% (1.47 million), and MDM 9.1 per cent (394,000). In the presidential elections, Frelimo candidate Filipe Nyusi won with 57.14%, Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama took 36.38%, and Daviz Simango from MDM took the remaining 6.48%.

These percentages are corroborated by the Electoral Observatory's parallel count. From a sample of slightly more than 10% of the polling stations, both urban and rural and from all 11 provinces, the Observatory found that Nyusi won 57.24%, Dhlakama 35.22% and Simango 7.54%.

So the parallel count suggests that the results announced by the provincial commissions are broadly correct.

The observers from the Electoral Observatory watched the voting and the count at their chosen polling stations, and then received copies of the official results sheets. The parallel count is based on those sheets.

Yet the Renamo conference spokesperson claimed that "these were the worst elections in Mozambican history, in terms of electoral offences and distortion of data" and that the official results derive from an enormous dose of fraud (there has clearly been some irregularities and ballot stuffing, but less than usual by all accounts and not enough to influence the overall result significantly).


Lots of Renamo observers

As mentioned earlier Renamo has always alleged that Mozambican elections are characterised by fraud, but these elections are significantly different from all previous ones in that the opposition parties were present at all levels of the electoral apparatus.

The National Elections Commission (CNE) consists of five representatives of Frelimo, four of Renamo, one from MDM and seven from civil society (some of the civil society representatives were handpicked by the political parties). All of the provincial, district and city commissions contain three representatives of Frelimo, two of Renamo, one from MDM, and nine from civil society. Each of these commissions has two deputy chairpersons, one from Frelimo and one from Renamo.

Even more significant is the political party presence in the CNE's executive body, the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE), which organises the elections.

STAE has a professional national director, and two deputies, one from Frelimo and one from Renamo. There are six assistant national directors, three appointed by Frelimo, two by Renamo and one by the MDM, and eighteen other staff members, nine from Frelimo, eight from Renamo, and one from the MDM.

Likewise in the provincial, district and city branches of STAE - there are two assistant directors (one Frelimo, one Renamo), six assistant heads of department (three from Frelimo, two from Renamo and one from the MDM), and six other staff members (again three Frelimo, two Renamo and one MDM).

This politicisation extends to the polling station - each of the parliamentary parties, Frelimo, Renamo and the MDM, had the right to appoint a member of staff at each of the 17,010 polling stations.

Adding all these figures up Renamo had the right to appoint no less than 18,030 people at every level of the electoral machinery, from the polling station right up to the CNE. So if the massive fraud Renamo did take place, what the heck were these thousands of Renamo appointees doing? How come they did not notice or stop the alleged frauds? Is Renamo declaring that all the people it appointed were incompetent, fools or treacherous?

I fear this isn't going to end well...

[politicus]

The National Elections Commission (CNE) has approved the results of the election giving victory to Filipe Nyusi as president with 57% of the vote and Frelimo with 144 of 250 seats in parliament.

The results are close to those predicted by the parallel sample count. But CNE only approved the results by a 10-7 majority, with opposition nominees and some civil society reps voting against. Renamo today filed a formal protest.

CNE was required by law to report today, but  is continuing its investigations into a wide range of complaints including late opening of polling stations, conflicting numbers in different copies of some results sheets (editas), suspected ballot box stuffing, reports of pre-marked ballots in circulation, and opposition ballots improperly made invalid by polling station staff.  Some editais are also missing, but they don't identify how many.

The official results:

Turnout: 48.64%.

President:

Filipe Nyusi 2,761,025 - 57.03%
Afonso Dhlakama 1,762,260 - 36.61%
Daviz Simango 306,884 - 6.36%

Parliament:

Frelimo 144
Renamo 89
MDM 17

Total seats in the 10 provincial parliaments (Maputo City doesn't have a parliament):

Frelimo 485
Renamo 295
MDM 31

A total of 754,113 ballot papers considered invalid at polling stations were sent to Maputo and reconsidered by the CNE, and 174,614 were accepted as valid. This means 23% were accepted, which is higher than in previous elections. Of 466 protested votes, 323 were accepted as valid.

By comparison, the 2009 results were:

Turnout 44.63%

President:

Armando Guebuza 75.01%
Afonso Dhlakama 16.41%
Daviz Simango 8.59%

Parliament:

Frelimo 191
Renamo 51
MDM 8 (only allowed to run in 4 provinces)


MDM joins Renamo in rejection of the results

Like Renamo MDM has rejected the result because misconduct was too widespread. Daviz Simango has demanded that the general elections should be annulled.
In a statement Simango has expressed his “profound sorrow because these elections were stained by an unequal combat during the election campaign, and in proven acts of fraud and violence they have now had final discredit”. The results were “not credible, bearing in mind the countless reports of irregularities denounced by us and known by all of society”.

There was no hint in Simango's statement that MDM will take to the streets against the results, or that its elected MPs will refuse to take their streets.

The problem for MDM is the same as for Renamo. They were part of the electoral apparatus with MDM representatives on all election commissions - on the CNE itself, and on every provincial, district and city elections commission.
MDM polling station monitors did not submit a single appeal or complaint on time to the district courts, which handle all protests against events at the polling stations.

According to the Supreme Court, between them Frelimo, Renamo and the MDM only submitted 24 appeals to the district courts. All the ones from Renamo and MDM either contained no evidence, were submitted beyond the deadline of 48 hours after close of polls, or were addressed to the wrong body (provincial rather than district courts).
The only avenue still open to MDM is an appeal to the Constitutional Council - Mozambique's highest body in matters of constitutional and electoral law.

[politicus]

The National Elections Commission has thrown out Renamos electoral complaints on procedural grounds. MDMs complaints about the election in Maputo Province and City, Tete and Sofala is still pending, but was made after the two week deadline, so they are likely to be refused as well.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411050289.html

Meanwhile Renamo has refused to provide lists of its militia members, which should have made it possible either to either integrate them into the security forces or demobilize them. So Dhlakhama is keeping his "Presidential Guard" militia.

Those two things are hardly unrelated.

EDIT: NEC has now also rejected MDMs complaints.

[politicus]

Good analysis of the election process and result.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411071498.html


Dhlakhama now calls for a caretaker government instrad of a unity government.

[politicus]

Why did the MDM underperform so badly?

In addition to Renamo being seen as the only ones strong enough to get concessions from Frelimo it turns out imposing unpopular outside candidates on the locals and party big wigs medling in local affairs in municipalities they won in 2013 played a role. "We did not liberate ourselves from Maputo just to be colonized by Beira" is a telling statement.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411180259.html

[politicus]

Dhlakhma now says he will set up a parallel government in January if Frelimo doesn't accept a unity government.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411261601.html