Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014

[politicus]

Thought we should make a thread with less than a month to go. Current president Armando Guebuza is barred from running again due to term limits, so they'll get a new leader. They also elect the unicameral Assembleia da República with 250 members and 11 provincial assemblies (including Maputo capitol city assembly).


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozambican_general_election,_2014

Parties:

FRELIMO (Mozambique Liberation Front), the old Marxist guerrillas turned pro-business party of power, got 74,7% of the votes and 191 seats last time. These days the party is mostly technocratic and non-ideological using a populist nationalist rhetoric, but also has a wing of genuine leftists.
The party is strongest in the far north and in the south, it retains its popularity among rural voters and older people, but is increaingly unpopular among Mozambiques growing urban middle class and lost some big cities in the municipal election last year.

RENAMO (Mozambican National Resistance), the old South Africa backed "contras" fighting FRELIMO. They were reduced to 51 seats last time and only got 17,7%. All decent or semi-decent people in RENAMO seems to have left for MDM, so its basically an alliance of old war criminals and youngish opportunists with no ideology or purpose outside self enrichment.Strongest in the western and central provinces where they had control or a strong presence during the civil war.

MDM (Democratic Movement of Mozambique), pro-democracy breakaway from RENAMO founded in 2009 by Beira Mayor Daviz Simango. Got only 8 seats and 3,9% last time, but where barred from running in 9 out of 13 constituencies on technicalities, they only got seats in Maputo and Sofala province (around Beira). It looks like they will be able to get national ballot access this time and hopefully they can replace RENAMO as the official opposition.
MDM is has been growng fast in recent years and is built on its control of two of Mozambique’s largest clities Beira and Quelimane. MDM got overwhelming victories in these two municipalities at the local election last year, and won two other big cities Nampula and Gurué and performed really strong in areas once regarded as FRELIMO strongholds in the south.
Since large parts of the politically active urban population loads FRELIMO they may be able to get a national breakthrough this time.

Presidential candidates:

Filipe Nyussi (55) (FRELIMO), a mechanical engineer and the former head of the Ports and Railways authority and a Maputo football club, he has been Minister of Defence since 2008. Nyussi is the handpicked successor of Armando Guebuza, and is expected to let him continue to rule behind the scene after he leaves office, so kind of the Medvedev of Mozambique. An uncharismatic party bureaucrat he beat much better economist and women's right advocate, ex-Prime Minister Luisa Diogo 68-31 in the second round at the party congress last year, securing that the FRELIMO fat cats will continue to be able to get their loot unhindered.


Afonso Dhlakama (61) (RENAMO) has been the leader of RENAMO since 1979 and their perpetual presidential candidate since 1994. He got closest to winning in 1999 where Chissano beat him 52.3% to 47,7, but is without a chance this time. Started an insurrection ("a revolution" according to himself) in 2012, but didn't have the manpower or money for it to get serious. Is responsible for numerous atrocities, like mutilating orphans,  during the civil war and should be in Haag tried for crimes against humanity, but of course this is Africa, so it wont happen.


Daviz Simango (50) (MDM) is a charismatic and eloquent man, who has been the successful Mayor of Mozambique's second city Beira since 2003. He is the son of Rev. Uria Simango, who was the right hand of FRELIMOs first leader Eduardo Mondlane, but lost a power struggle in 1969 to hardline Marxist Samora Machel. Both the reverend and his wife was subsequently murdered by the regime after FRELIMOs ascent to power. Simango jr. joined RENAMO in 1997, but left to form his own party in 2009. Best of the bunch, but he wont win.


Mozambique uses party list PR, so no independents, and has a 5% threshold.

[politicus]

This isn't going all that well (violence, abuse of public funds etc) allthough probably not worse than one could expect.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409181626.html

The circumstances of the election are rather special since RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama only came out of hiding in the bush on September 4 after fighting government forces for a couple of years together with some of his old guerrillas from the 80s and early 90s.

Dhlakama then returned to the capital Maputo to sign a peace deal together with President Armando Guebuza, ending his two-year conflict with FRELIMO government forces, which the old rebel leader launched after accusing the state of reneging on the Rome General Peace Accords from 1992 that ended Mozambique’s brutal civil war (1977-92).

(the real problem being the RENAMO bosses don't get a cut of all the lucrative business deals in the energy sector and big construction/infrastructure projects)

[politicus]

A big poll was conducted by the Polytechnic University in late August of 10.698 registered voters in five of the eleven provincial constituencies (Maputo City, Maputo Province, Tete, Zambezia and Nampula). It will be the last we get because their election law forbids polls after the start of the campaign (very inconsiderate towards the Atlas forum!).

Besides not covering the whole country it has other methodological problems (fx. the pollster excludes the “don't knows” and “won't says” from the percentages), but it gives an indication of where this election is going and suggests that RENAMO may no longer be the main opposition in the country, but might have been overtaken by MDM (which would be great if true!). Also MDM is more popular than FRELIMO among young urban voters, but FRELIMO remains on top because of their rural support.


All five provinces

President

Filipe Nyusi 47,5%
Daviz Simango 35,7%
Afonso Dhlakama 10,9%
Others 5,9% (it was conducted before it became official that their would be no other candidates)


Parliament

FRELIMO 48.2%
MDM 36.1%
RENAMO 10.7%
Others 5%

Maputo city

President

Nyussi 46.3%
Simango 45.3%
Dhlakama 8.4%

Parliament
 
FRELIMO 44.9%
MDM 42.6%
RENAMO 8.2%
Others 4.2%

In cities actually governed by MDM after the municipal elections, they lead the poll.

Quelimane, capital of Zambezia province

MDM 45.8%
FRELIMO 38.8%
RENAMO 11,0%
Others 4.4%

Its impossible to extrapolate from the poll to the entire country since six provinces are missing, and four of them (Gaza & Inhambane in the south and Cabo Delgado & Niassa in the far north) are FRELIMO strongholds. Even in the provinces covered only a couple of districts in each province were sampled.

There are also serious problems of methodology with the poll. Not only have the “don't knows” been tossed aside, but the sample is seriously skewed in terms of gender and education. No less than 63.3% of the sample were women and only 36.7% men! While 13.5% were university students, 4.8% had a college degree and 37.7% had mid-level education. So well educated people were vastly overrepresented in comparison with the general population.

[politicus]

Mozambique's macroeconomic indicators are pretty impressive. The country's growth rate has exceeded 5-7% over the past decade, and growth has exceeded 7% in each of the past two years.

Extractive industry, which is the fastest growing sector with 33% last year contributed 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth.

Coal, oil and gas are driving the country's impressive growth. Mozambique has delivered its first commercial crude oil shipment in 2014 - and begins LNG exports by 2018, according to the oil companies operating in the country.

Analysts believe the country has the potential to join the ranks of resource-rich countries, and emerge as a leading natural gas producer .

Foreign direct investment, mainly in energy and mining, has exceeded USD 1 billion in each of the past three years and will continue to go up as new projects come on line.

But its not all coal and oil. The Cahora Bassa dam is one of the largest hydropower installations in Africa, generating 2,075 megawatts (or 85% of the country's current energy production capacity), with much of this power exported regionally.



The country's potential hydropower generation is estimated at 13,000 megawatts, with the capacity to produce 65,000 gigawatt-hours per year of energy.

This untapped resource has attracted foreign interest in investing in several power mega-projects that could make Mozambique one of the largest power producers in the Africa.

Mozambique has produced natural gas since 2004 in Temane field in the south, but it's recently discovered natural gas resources in the Rovuma basin exceeds 30 trillion cubic feet (comparable to Oman). Companies like South Africa's Sasol Petroleum, US-based Andarko Petroleum and Italian giant Eni have been joined by Chinese players to turn Mozambique into a natural gas powerhouse exporting to Asian countries.

Mozambique is already a major producer of aluminum, beryllium, and tantalum, but its coal reserves could also transform the country into one of the world's largest coal exporters.

So lots of economic potential, but also big environmental risks and lots of potential for corruption and conflict over the spoils.

They have a big fishing and tourism industries as well. Rising crime might jeopardize their tourist sector, but its a beautiful country with fantastic beaches, so they will probably keep expanding (crime still relatively low by African standards).

[politicus]

Isn't Mozambique's economy flourishing quite alot?

Is this more a combination of a low base and still recovering from the war or is there something more to it?

Yes. Energy and mineral boom. I am a bit puzzled by the first sentence. Didn't you read the post above?

The civil war ended 22 years ago. The 2012-13 thing was minor skirmishes. Its a poor country, so yes, the base was low.

[politicus]

Like everywhere in Africa the top 5% gets most of the money, but they have reduced the share of Mozambicans living in absolute poverty to less than 50% from 70% in 1997, but the vast majority of the rural population still lives on less than 1.50 $ a day and lacks basic stuff like access to safe water, health facilities and schools.

The urban middle class is growing, but they are the ones most dissatifsfied with FRELIMO, since they think that development and progress for ordinary people should be faster and that there is too much corruption and nepotism. Rural people mostly support FRELIMO.

Its been a democracy since 1994 and the one party rule is only on the national level, several provinces and big cities are ruled by the opposition.

Mozambique is generally heading in a much more positive direction than Angola.

[politicus]

Good opinion piece about where Guebuza failed as leader:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409221329.html?viewall=1

Daviz Simago, leader and presidential candidate of MDM, says he wants a parliament that is more independent of the government, he also demands an end to “political interference” in the mass media. One of his campaign themes is that if he wins he will slim down the size of the government to cut costs and fight the vested interests of the bureaucracy.

[politicus]

Does Mozambique have run-offs? It would be terrible if RENAMO and MDM split the opposite vote.

Yes they do.

[politicus]

Daviz Simango wants to keep the government cheap loan to peasants program (the District Development Fund). The idea is that village entrepreneurs with viable projects that can create jobs and boost food production gets dirt cheap loans, but a lot of people use it as free government money.

Simano wants  private banks to run it and will secure that the money will be repaid later (so no handouts). Its one of the most popular programs (for obvious reasons..). Guebuza sat it up in 2006, but RENAMO wants too kill it, so Simano is taking the middle ground here.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201410061875.html

Simago:

“The public administration cannot manage this money, otherwise we will have people using the money for purposes of political opportunism, which is what is happening now. It is not the job of the public administration to grant loans”.

[politicus]

If people wouldn't pay back the government, why would they pay back a bank?

It has been administered as a form of paying for support/taking care of your clients by the FRELIMO officials involved, people having to apply through a bank would change the whole attitude about this, besides private businesses are generally a lot more efficiently run than the government in places like Mozambique (I guess you could say worldwide, but even if if we disregard the usual Western "left/right has different views on government"-stuff, its objectively true in Africa).

[politicus]

Link to the National Electoral Commission: http://www.stae.org.mz/index.php/en/

Polls are open from 7AM to 6PM GMT UTC+2 (Central African Time) - which is equal to Central European Time with DST for us Euros. They probably don't have a (preliminary) result before the next day.

Interesting trivia: FRELIMO uses the same Brazilian advertising agency, that has ran Lula's and Dilma's campaigns.

[politicus]

Official results are first expected 15 days after polling due to the kind of infrastructure they have in many areas, but hopefully we will get a preliminary result earlier.

Mozambique electoral code stipulates that the district electoral commissions have 72 hours to announce results at the district level, while the provincial electoral commission have five days to report results. The national results must be announced 15 days after Election Day.

Spokesman for the electoral body Paulo Cuinica says that they will be announcing the results as they will be pouring in.

According to him the election went peaceful with interest and very few "episodes", but that is not the whole truth: http://allafrica.com/stories/201410151980.html

EU observers were barred from polling stations in Tete in the west, where the worst fraud happened in 2009, officially because their credentials didn't have any stamps!

[politicus]

With some 20% of the votes counted Filipe Nyusi from FRELIMO has 63% against almost 30% for Renamo's Afonso Dhlakama and only 7,5% for Daviz Simango.

But RENAMO has already denied the legitimacy of the poll, claiming major irregularities.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/10/mozambique-opposition-rejects-election-result-2014101794844507622.html

Local and international observers say the incidents that have occurred will not affect the final outcome of the elections.

A projection of the parliamentary result by a group  of NGO's showed:

FRELIMO 142 (-49),
Renamo 75 (+24) and
MDM 31 (+23)

Two seats missing in this and AFAIK indies can't run, so there is some rounding error.

Regarding why Afonso Dhlakama is doing better than Simango. Afonso Dhlakama has by far the best name recognition of the candidates and bizarrely it seems his stunt with returning to the bush paid off, many young people who haven't experienced the horrors of the civil war apparently viewed this move in a romantic light, with the old bushfighter returning to the bush to fight his far superior enemy one last time giving him a Rambo-image.
Dhlakama has also tried to position himself as the champion of the poor and his rallies has drawn big crowds all over the country.

[politicus]

Why did the MDM underperform so badly?

The poll I posted was the only one done and it was enormously skewed, with urban and educated being overrepresented a lot in a country that is still 80% rural. So I am not sure they underperformed that much - maybe Westerners just had the wrong expectations.

Regarding President: Lack of name recognition and the strange Dhakama-romanticism among young people (well educated and/or dissatisfied urban youth and youngish should have been Simangos best group) was a big factor.

It seems that cheating was most rampant in central Mozambique (Tete and rural Sofala), where MDM are strong, so they probably did better in reality in those rural areas than the numbers reflect.

Also, this is still early and we don't know if those figures are representative.

[politicus]

Turnout is up a bit from 45% last time to 50%, but still low of course.

Regional pattern

The opposition is ahead in the important Zambézia and Nampula provinces in the Lower North, but only with a small overall opposition majority - approximately 45% Frelimo, 45% Renamo and 10% MDM. This is opposition heartland. Margins should be much higher here for them to beat Frelimo, given the numbers Frelimo is likely to run up in the south.



The basic pattern should be opposition strenght in the Central Region: Sofala, Manica and Tete + Lower North: Zambézia and Nampula. Frelimo is expected to dominate in the Upper North (Cabo Delgado & Niassa) and in the South (Gaza, Inhambane, Maputo Province). In Maputo City the opposition was expected to gain a lot, but with the apparent MDM collapse, this may not have happened.
Also, massive fraud in Tete and rural Sofala may mean Frelimo wins them.

Background:

Mozambican politics is basically a competion between the southern Maputo based elite, that created and still dominates Frelimo, and the Sofala/Manica elite based in Beira (where Simango is Mayor) allied with other central and northern elite groups. Simangos dad was prevented from taking over Frelimo because he was from Manica and not from the south and Renamo was founded by Frelimo members from Sofala/Manica to fight southern domination (Dhakama is from Sofala). The favourisation of Maputo and the south is the perennial theme in Mozambican politics (and as evident as ever). The far north is a Frelimo stronghold because it was here Frelimo guerilla fighters originally entered from Tanzania and established their first bases.

The situation

Current projections for President are:

Filipe Nyusi 60% Afonso Dhlakama 32%, Daviz Simango 8%. Even if Nyusi is down 3% from the initial prognosis - and may sink further - it seems like a solid first round victory.

and for Parliament:

Still Frelimo 57% (142 seats) Renamo 30% (75 seats) MDM 12% (31 seats), Others 1%. MDM is doing worse than at the municipal elections last year.

[politicus]

With 5,720 of the 17,010 polling stations processed (33.63%), the results were as follows:

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 1,051,921 (61.67%)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 526,984 (30.89%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 126,877 (7.44%)

The STAE provisional results remain very much in line with the parallel vote tabulation undertaken by the Electoral Observatory, Mozambique's largest and most credible domestic observer group. The Observatory's parallel count, from a sample of 2,107 polling stations predicts that Nyusi will win 60.5% of the vote, Dhlakama 32%, and Simango 7.5%.

Broken down by province, the STAE provisional results are as follows:


Upper North

Niassa  (results from 300 of 1,102 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 34,713 (60.53%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 19,024 (33.17%)

Daviz Simango - 3,616 (6.3%)


Cabo Delgado  (results from 198 of 1,555 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 15,207 (77.9%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 3,794 (19.43%)

Daviz Simango - 521 (2.67%)


Lower North

Nampula (results from 613 of 3,071 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 69,344 (47.21%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 67,736 (46.11%)

Daviz Simango - 9,818 (6.68%)


Zambezia (results from 671 of 2,925 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 79,393 (45.29%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 80,199 (45.75%)

Daviz Simango - 15,695 (8.95%)


Central

Tete (results from 339 of 1,663 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 64,122 (58.26%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 39,691 (36.06%)

Daviz Simango - 6,249 (5.68%)


Manica (results from 790 of 1,104 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 114,175 (49.24%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 108,715 (46.89%)

Daviz Simango - 8,979 (3.87%)


Sofala (results from 523 of 1.267 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 66,348 (39.13%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 84,473 (49.83%) #1

Daviz Simango - 18,716 (11.04%) #1


South

Inhambane (results from 304 of 1,061 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 69,809 (78.5%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 14,315 (16.1%)

Daviz Simango - 4,799 (5.4%)


Gaza (results from 435 of 1.024 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 129,946 (92.80%) #1

Afonso Dhlakama - 4,959 (3.54%)

Daviz Simango - 5,122 (3.66%)


Maputo province (results from 735 of 1,244 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 174,584 (77.50%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 33,420 (14.84%)

Daviz Simango - 17,262 (7.66%)


Maputo city (results from 812 of 994 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi - 234,280 (68.70%)

Afonso Dhlakama - 70,658 (20.72%)

Daviz Simango - 36,100 (10.59%) #2


As for the parliamentary election, the vote tabulation is proceeding at an even slower pace. STAE provided provisional results from only nine of the eleven provincial constituencies (minus Niassa and Maputo City). They were as follows:


Upper North

Cabo Delgado (results from 198 of 1,555 polling stations)

Frelimo - 13,239 (79.79%)

Renamo - 2,693 (16.23%)

MDM - 571 (3.44%)


Lower North

Nampula (results from 613 of 3,071 polling stations)

Frelimo - 41,645 (53.12%)

Renamo - 31,836 (39.84%)

MDM - 6,338 (7.93%)


Zambezia (results from 325 of 2,935 polling stations)

Frelimo - 35,459 (43.71%)

Renamo - 35,914 (44.27%) #1

MDM - 8,979 (11.07%)


Central

Tete (results from 271 of 1,663 polling stations)

Frelimo - 47,165 (46.76%)

Renamo - 29,138 (35.06%)

MDM - 6,767 (8.14%)


Manica (results from 523 of 1.104 polling stations)

Frelimo - 72,439 (49.16%)

Renamo - 65,177 (44.23%)

MDM - 6,738 (4.57%)


Sofala (results from 192 of 1,267 polling stations)

Frelimo - 24,794 (36.63%)

Renamo - 26,339 (38.92%)

MDM - 16,122 (23.82%) #1


South

Inhambane (results from 213 of 1,061 polling stations)

Frelimo - 39,782 (77.97%)

Renamo - 8,297 (16.26%)

MDM - 2,625 (4.44%)


Gaza (results from 208 of 1.024 polling stations)

Frelimo - 37,059 (90.17%) #1

Renamo - 1,790 (4.36%)

MDM - 1,869 (4.55%)


Maputo province (results from 523 of 1,244 polling stations)

Frelimo - 110,777 (77 .00%)

Renamo - 17,204 (11.96%)

MDM - 11,905 (8.28%)

[politicus]

As the preliminary numbers illustrate the basic problem for the opposition remains, that while Frelimo is competitive across the country they are not competitive in the south (and Cabo Delgado) and can't dominate their strongholds enough to counterweight that (even in Sofala Frelimo got 35%+).

Maputo itself is getting slightly more competitive, but the rest of the south isn't really moving. There was widespread harassment of opposition in the provincial south, but even in the far north where the opposition was allowed to campaign unhindered they failed to make inroads into Frelimo core territory.

[politicus]

Thumbs up from EU observers

The head of the EU mission, Judith Sorgentini, says the observers had witnessed “an overall well organised voting and counting process conducted in a calm atmosphere”, although there were some inconsistencies in how polling station staff implemented procedures.

The EU observers visited 614 polling stations (out of 17,010) in all provinces.

Santorini said “90% were assessed as good or very good in their overall conduct of voting”.

The presence of Mozambican observers and of representatives of the political parties “added transparency to the process”. But Sorgentini added that “limits to the capacity of opposition parties to deploy delegates and delays in the submission and issuing of accreditation jeopardized their ability to observe the entire process in many polling stations”. Frelimo proved to be the only party capable of filling all the positions allocated to it.

The EU mission observed the count at 46 polling stations and found it to be “quiet and orderly”. As required by law, party agents received copies of the results. However violent incidents in several areas “generated fear and distrust in the population”.

As for the reported refusal of some officials to allow members of the EU mission to observe the voting, Sorgentini clarified that this only affected one polling station in Tete province, and the matter was cleared up with the intervention of the National Elections Commission (CNE).

Campaign conditions

The mission found the election campaign unbalanced in favour of Frelimo. “Frelimo profited from access to the national government administrative structure, mobilizing civil servants to its campaign marches and rallies and eventually using official vehicles, as witnessed by and reported to EU observers” giving Frelimo “an unfair advantage over its adversaries”. The use of state assets for political campaigns is illegal, but was reported from several areas by journalists.

Media

“Press freedom was generally respected during the election campaign, with a few cases of intimidation of journalists”.

Public sector media

Radio Mozambique “offered a balanced coverage”.

Mozambican Television (TVM) “clearly favoured the ruling party”, and was thus in violation of the Mozambican press law. TVM's coverage of the campaign gave Frelimo presidential candidate Filipe Nyusi 64 per cent of airtime, compared with 19% for Daviz Simango (MDM), and 17% for Afonso Dhlakama from Renamo.

TVM coverage of the political parties was also heavily skewed towards Frelimo - Frelimo received 57% of the airtime, Renamo 22% and the MDM 17%.

Private media

Independent television station STV provided “balanced coverage”, giving 41% of its time to Nyusi, 32% to Simango and 27% to Dhlakama.

Complaint

Asked about Renamo's announcement that it will not recognise the results, Sorgentini said opposition parties have the legal right to make complaints, “but they have to come up with the evidence”.

Members of the EU mission will remain in Mozambique until the final results are validated and proclaimed by the Constitutional Council, Mozambique's highest body in matters of constitutional and electoral law. For the immediate future, the mission will be observing district vote tabulation due to take place this weekend.

Sorgentini said the EU mission will observe this phase of the count in 46 districts, but she declined to name them.

[politicus]

First provincial result:

Maputo City

Turnout 60.2%. Almost 282,000 registered voters in Maputo did not cast their ballots.


Presidential Election:

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) 287,674 (68.8%)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) 86,326 (20.7%)

Davis Simango (MDM) 43,868 (10.5%)


Parliamentary election:

Frelimo 257,829 (62.7%) (11)

Renamo 82,447 (20.0%) (3)

MDM 64,490 (15.7%) (2)

The remaining 2,6% were scattered among 24 minor parties, only five of whom picked up more than 0.1% of the votes.

Frelimo's share of the vote has fallen significantly since the 2009 elections, where Guebuza won 80.4% of the Maputo presidential vote and Frelimo won 76,5% of the parliamentary vote

The parliamentary results mean that Frelimo takes 11 of the 16 seats allocated to Maputo city, Renamo 3 and MDM 2. In 2009 the city had 18 seats, 14 went to Frelimo, 3 to MDM, and 1 to Renamo.

The result is very disappointing for MDM, which failed to build on its succes in the 2013 municipal elections. But the 2013 polls were boycotted by Renamo, so MDM picked up the entire opposition vote.
Renamo's re-entry into electoral politics has clearly stripped away most of MDM's support.

The provincial results are still provisional. They will not become definitive until they have been confirmed by the National Elections Commission (CNE), but that should be a formality, since all major parties agree on them.

[politicus]

Renamo boss Afonso Dhlakama believes he won the election last Wednesday (but then again Dhlakama believes he has won every elections since 1994), and says he wants a national unity government and are calling for negotiations between Renamo and Frelimo to establish such a government with the task of totally restructuring the state apparatus and security forces to remove Frelimo influence. There would then be new elections in two years.

He says the polling on Wednesday was not a real election, and that "the world community should not accept in Africa an election which would not be acceptable in Europe" and instead support a unity government that would finally bring democracy to Mozambique.

Meanwhile he is maintaining the always implicit threat of violence. Young Renamo supporters attacked polling stations in Tete and Ihla de Mocambique on election day, and Renamo has not demobilised or disarmed all the forces remobilised for the 2012-13 insurrection. Dhlakama says he doesn't want violence, but his supporters are angry and he just isn't sure he can control them (all those young hotheads..). He also utters enigmatic statements such as: "Violence is not necessary if Frelimo negotiates and is not itself violent, as the "Frelimo police" were on polling day". So violence isn't in itself violent, gotcha Aphonso!

As examples of what he wants Dhlakama cites the national unity governments in Kenya 2008-13 and Zimbabwe 2009-13 (and we all know how well they turned out...).

Frelimo will obviously not accept a unity government. In the 1990-92 Rome peace talks Renamo had to accept the legitimacy of the government and constitution, which Dhlakama finally agreed to after two years of dragging his feet - and for Frelimo that is the basis for modern Mozambican politics. But as observers point out the importance of the Kenya example is that there was high level international mediation and the government was hugely expanded to create posts for the opposition. Dhlakama probably hopes that diplomats will put pressure on Frelimo and the government to make major concessions, even if not granting a unity government at least more Renamo people in state institutions. He already got a lot of his guys into the army and provincial administrations following the 2013 peace talks.

[politicus]

While still awaiting the final result it may be time to do a bit of status on this election:

1. Violence paid off for Renamo, which doubled their votes from 2009. Going into the bush and not returning before they had gotten concessions from Frelimo regained the trust of the dissatisfied, that Renamo is the only force capable of shaking the Frelimo hegemony.

2. MDM's success in the municipal elections last year was just because Renamo boycotted them. Even in a town like Quemane where MDM is in charge and has apparently done a good job, they don't get more than 10-12% of the national vote. It is of course very disappointing from a pro-democracy POV, that violence paid off and good governance wasn't rewarded.

3. Neither Renamo's populism nor MDM running on liberalism regarding constitutional rights, direct democracy and strengthening the private sector appeals to people in southern Mozambique. To cut into Frelimo's southern hegemony a party would need to run to the left of Frelimo criticizing the government for being too pro-business and neglecting rural areas and the poor. Dhlakama tried to position himself as the champion of the poor and gained a bit, but most southerners will never vote Renamo, the scars from the civil war runs too deep.

4. With a reduced Frelimo majority the interesting thing is if the Frelimo left wing around Luisa Diogo will get more leverage. If Frelimo only has around 140 of 250 seats, 15 deserters would be enough to vote down the government. The best thing for democracy would be a Frelimo split between leftists and the dominant pro-business wing, but given how valuable the Frelimo brand is and how beneficial it is to be a member of the party of power, this is unlikely. Still, there are obvious fault lines within Frelimo and one can always hope. It happened in Botswana with the BDP i 2010 and - less succesfully - in Namibia when RDP split from SWAPO in 2007.

5. Turnout is still dismal, even if it did go up from 45% to 50%. This probably reflects that many people are fed up with both Frelimo and Renamo and see no point in choosing between them and MDM is not seen as attractive by most poors and rubes (and in Mozambique that is 90% of the population), since it is viewed as the party for the well educated middle class.

[politicus]

Niassa

A Frelimo stronghold in the far north, where they got hammered, but still retained a majority. Very low turnout, so Frelimo failed to mobilize their supporters. Too many invalid votes indicates fraud, and there are a couple of complaints being investigated.
Note that the two opposition candiates got 50%+ combined, which is unheard of in traditional Frelimo territory.

Presidential election

Number of registered voters - 615,065

Number who voted - 288,831

Turnout - 46.95%

Valid votes - 249,698 (86.5 per cent)

Blank ballots - 22,992 (8.0 per cent)

Invalid votes - 16,141 (5.6 per cent)

Candidates (percentages of valid votes)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 120,818 (48.4 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 111,114 (44.5 per cent)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 17,776 (7.1 per cent)


Parliamentary election

Number who voted - 269,899

Turnout - 43.9 per cent

Valid votes - 224,691 (83.3 per cent)

Blank ballots - 25,604 (9.5 per cent)

Invalid votes - 19,604 (7.3 per cent)

Parties (percentages of valid votes)

Frelimo - 113,496 (50.51 per cent)

Renamo - 91,743 (40.8 per cent)

MDM - 18,105 (8.1 per cent)

These figures do not add up to 100%, because the many minor parties on the ballot paper, who took a handful of votes between them, have been disregarded.

Niassa will have 14 seats in the new parliament, and on the basis of this result, Frelimo will take 8 of them, Renamo 5 and the MDM 1. In the 2009 election, Frelimo won 12 seats in Niassa, Renamo two and the MDM none. So, on the basis of these calculations, Frelimo will lose 4 seats, 3 of them to Renamo and 1 to the MDM.

[politicus]

Cabo Delgado

Frelimo stronghold where the started the liberation war in 1964 and Nyusis home province remains a bastion for them, but a high number of blank votes indicate dissatisfation in an area where voting Renamo is just not an option for most people.

Presidential election

Registered voters - 964,071

Number who voted - 477,463

Turnout 49.53%

Valid votes - 416,154 (87.16 per cent)

Blank ballots - 44,211 (9.26 per cent)

Invalid votes - 17,098 (3.58 per cent)

Candidates (percentages of valid votes)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 324,857 (78.06 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 75,568 (18.16 per cent)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 15,729 (3.78 per cen)

Parliamentary election

Number who voted - 473,567

Turnout - 49.12%

Valid votes - 400,580 (84.59 per cent)

Blank ballots - 55,117 (11.64 per cent)

Invalid votes - 17,870 (3.77 per cent)

Parties (percentage of valid votes)

Frelimo - 310,608 (77.54 per cent)

Renamo - 69,167 (17.27 per cent)

MDM - 19,175 (5 per cent)

The remaining 1% of the votes were scattered around about two dozen minor parties whose names were on the ballot papers.

This parliamentary vote means that 17 of Cabo Delgado's 22 seats will go to Frelimo, four to Renamo and one to the MDM. In 2009, the seats divided 18 for Frelimo and four for Renamo. So on these calculations, Frelimo will lose 1 seat to the MDM.

[politicus]

Manica

This is traditionally an opposition stronghold, but went 70% Guebuza in the Frelimo landslide in 2009, this time Dhlakama won the presidential election, but Frelimo won the parliamentary election.

Numbers are from “Diario de Mocambique” , not the electoral commission, and only includes valid votes, which is a shame since protest voting with blank ballots and possible fraud reflected in high numbers of invalid votes are interesting elements, but Manica had a clean poll according to EU observers.

Dhlakama took 48.5 per cent of the vote and Filipe Nyusi got 47.8 per cent. For Frelimo this is a sharp decline. In the previous election. In 2009 Armando Guebuza, won in Manica with 70.4 per cent of the vote. Dhlakamas share of the vote more than double, from 22.2 per cent to 48.5 per cent. Daviz Simango saw his vote fall from 7.4 to 3.8 per cent.

In the parliamentary poll Frelimo finished ahead of Renamo, but behind the combined opposition and looks set to lose a third of their 12 Manica seats in the current parliament.

The results, as given in “Diario de Mocambique” are:


Presidential election

Valid votes - 349,559

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 169,359 (48.45%)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 167,018 (47.77%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 13,182 (3.77%)


Parliamentary election

Frelimo - 156,835

Renamo - 147,087

MDM - 16,276

"Since “Diario de Mocambique” did not mention the number of blank ballots or invalid votes, it is impossible to calculate the exact turnout, but since Manica has 712,938 registered voters, the turnout looks to be around 50 per cent.

Nor did the paper cite figures for the numerous minor parties contesting the parliamentary election, making it impossible to give exact percentages for the 3 main parties. According to observer group AIM  breakdown of the 16 seats allocated to Manica in the next parliament will be 8 to Frelimo, 7 to Renamo and 1 to MDM. In the 2009 elections, Frelimo won 12 seats and Renamo took 4, whereas MDM was barred from standing in Manica in 2009.  So Frelimo will lose 4 of its Manica seats, 3 of which will go to Renamo and 1 to MDM.

[politicus]

Inhambane

Registered voters - 598,276

Number who voted - 327,773

Turnout - 54.78 per cent


Presidential election

Blank ballots - 14,051 (4.29%)

Invalid votes - 11,460 (3.49%)

Valid votes - 302,262 (92.22%)
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Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 228,819 (75.7%)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 57,523 (19.03%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 15,920 (5.27%)


Parliamentary election

Blank ballots - 25,145

Invalid votes - 15,768



Frelimo - 207,642 (72.05 per cent)

Renamo - 44.055 (15.29 per cent)

MDM - 15,941 (5.18 per cent)

More than 7% of the valid votes were scattered around a large number of minor parties on the ballot papers.

Inhambane has 14 seats in parliament, and 12 will go to Frelimo and 2 to Renamo.

In the last election, in 2009, Inhambane had 16 seats, 15 of which went to Frelimo and 1 to Renamo. So Frelimo will lose 3 Inhambane seats. Renamo gains 1, while the other 2 are lost because of demographic changes.