PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch
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  PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch
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Author Topic: PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch  (Read 6341 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: September 19, 2014, 06:56:18 PM »

Should Republicans worry about winning races this year before declaring races in 2016 safe? If Republicans manage to win the Senate, then all of the blue state seats they hold in the 2016 cycle are not going to be anywhere close to being safe.

Obviously you're too dumb to tell from the *smirk smirk* that I was kidding.

It's hard to tell with Republicans and overconfidence. And oh, the name calling is not necessary and has been reported. It's really not necessary to call anyone dumb, it's just rude.
Shouldn't you be worried about holding control of the Senate in 2014 before declaring Toomey dead on arrival? You are starting to become a self-parody.


I never said Toomey was dead on arrival, no one used that phrase in this thread until YOU. If that's what you saw, you are very mistaken.
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Princess Nyan Cat
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« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2014, 12:41:34 AM »

My cousin served under Rear Admiral Sestak and said he was the worst commanding officer he'd ever seen. The kind description from his subordinates is along the lines of "tyrannical egomaniac." The unkind version is too harsh for even the saltiest of internet pages! Reports from his staff when he was in Congress don't sound any different. Here's hoping Sleazy Joe goes down to defeat yet again!
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Miles
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« Reply #27 on: March 03, 2015, 09:54:58 AM »

He's launching his campaign tomorrow.
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seanNJ9
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« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2015, 11:22:43 AM »

What has he done the last 6 years? Feel like he's old news.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #29 on: March 03, 2015, 05:05:02 PM »


Great news!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2015, 05:05:47 PM »

What has he done the last 6 years? Feel like he's old news.

Considering the "establishment alternatives" are Chris Carney and Vincent Hughes, I think I'll take the old news.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #31 on: April 06, 2015, 07:28:59 PM »

I'm not an expert on thread creation - Is it OK to give it a bump and just turn it into an all things PA-SEN thread? I don't see another one.

Anyway, it looks like Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (D) is going to jump into the race. That's a pretty significant name who may have an electoral advantage in the general against Toomey because he can neutralize the Lehigh County (and perhaps Northampton County as it's in the same metro area) advantage that Toomey starts out with despite its traditionally Democratic leanings. In a Presidential year, you probably don't have to worry as much about a drop off in Philly area turnout due to the loss of Sestak unless it's a brutal primary, and even then it is slim. Maybe 2% lower vote total in Delaware County - just a guess of what Sestak's hometown advantage would bring judging by 2010, adjusting for inferior gubernatorial candidate. .5-1% in Montgomery and Bucks Counties at most and Philly is decimal points lower than it could be with Sestak. The Democrats could really do well by branching out to the other major strongholds and take Philly as a foregone conclusion.

Pawlowski's fundraising efforts in 2014 for governor were pretty terrible, but it looks like he's making a better effort to secure donors this time around so that he is taken as a serious opponent. Still, even if he managed to surprise us with his fundraising, the Toomey money machine will be tough to stop - a Democratic primary will only drain the opposition's war chest regardless of which candidate comes out of it.
Pawlowski should be a more serious primary opponent than Carney, who is really just old news (or Hughes/Shapiro who both do next to nothing to improve the Dem's chances).

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-senate-ed-pawlowski-pat-toomey-20150404-story.html#page=1
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seanNJ9
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« Reply #32 on: April 06, 2015, 08:13:49 PM »

Best Dems can do?  What has Sestak done for 6 years?
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SawxDem
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« Reply #33 on: April 06, 2015, 08:17:31 PM »

I'm not an expert on thread creation - Is it OK to give it a bump and just turn it into an all things PA-SEN thread? I don't see another one.

Anyway, it looks like Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (D) is going to jump into the race. That's a pretty significant name who may have an electoral advantage in the general against Toomey because he can neutralize the Lehigh County (and perhaps Northampton County as it's in the same metro area) advantage that Toomey starts out with despite its traditionally Democratic leanings. In a Presidential year, you probably don't have to worry as much about a drop off in Philly area turnout due to the loss of Sestak unless it's a brutal primary, and even then it is slim. Maybe 2% lower vote total in Delaware County - just a guess of what Sestak's hometown advantage would bring judging by 2010, adjusting for inferior gubernatorial candidate. .5-1% in Montgomery and Bucks Counties at most and Philly is decimal points lower than it could be with Sestak. The Democrats could really do well by branching out to the other major strongholds and take Philly as a foregone conclusion.

Pawlowski's fundraising efforts in 2014 for governor were pretty terrible, but it looks like he's making a better effort to secure donors this time around so that he is taken as a serious opponent. Still, even if he managed to surprise us with his fundraising, the Toomey money machine will be tough to stop - a Democratic primary will only drain the opposition's war chest regardless of which candidate comes out of it.
Pawlowski should be a more serious primary opponent than Carney, who is really just old news (or Hughes/Shapiro who both do next to nothing to improve the Dem's chances).

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-senate-ed-pawlowski-pat-toomey-20150404-story.html#page=1


nah
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2015, 08:18:43 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2015, 08:37:51 PM by SMilo »

Best Dems can do?  What has Sestak done for 6 years?

Fundraise! Smiley  Money is going to be critical. This has been the plan all along.


And sawx - yeah probably not in all likelihood, but it's fun to think about. It's the most legitimate we are going to get.
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Vega
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« Reply #35 on: April 06, 2015, 08:21:51 PM »

I've been left decidedly unimpressed by Pawlowski's tenure as mayor. But I'm glad Sestak has some competition,
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #36 on: April 07, 2015, 04:50:50 PM »

Although for some reason the national party has more or less come out against Sestak, he was an early supporter of HRC and he's likely to benefit from her support.  Already early HRC supporter Ed Rendell has pretty much endorsed Sestak.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #37 on: April 08, 2015, 11:22:05 AM »

I've been left decidedly unimpressed by Pawlowski's tenure as mayor. But I'm glad Sestak has some competition,

Pawlowski is not running.  He only said he's considering running.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #38 on: April 09, 2015, 12:02:37 AM »

I saw one recent newspaper poll (not a scientific poll) that showed 32% preferred Chris Carney to be the Democratic Party nominee and 22% preferred Sestak. I believe Carney represented a suburban Pittsburgh riding and that paper may have been from Pittsburgh.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #39 on: April 09, 2015, 05:58:28 PM »

Schumer and Tester are wooing Shapiro.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #40 on: April 09, 2015, 06:13:05 PM »

I saw one recent newspaper poll (not a scientific poll) that showed 32% preferred Chris Carney to be the Democratic Party nominee and 22% preferred Sestak. I believe Carney represented a suburban Pittsburgh riding and that paper may have been from Pittsburgh.

Nah, Carney used to represent northeastern PA.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2015, 06:31:01 PM »

Politics PA did a website poll recently where he led among their readers, but didn't we learn a lot about that from 1936! (The poll on the side of the screen right now shows their readers also believe Sestak would lose head-to-head vs. Pawlowski.)

Scranton-Times Tribune hasn't done a poll, but one writer claims he's almost definitely in.

All the interested candidates are from areas right next to the eastern border of the state unsurprisingly.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2015, 07:03:46 PM »


Why is he a better candidate than Sestak, aside from the fact that he hasn't run for Senate before? At first glance he seems like your generic state house democrat.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2015, 07:17:19 PM »


Why is he a better candidate than Sestak, aside from the fact that he hasn't run for Senate before? At first glance he seems like your generic state house democrat.

He's not. The Dem establishment is still bitter that Sestak beat Specter in 2010, and is acting accordingly. He will take them to the cleaners once again. We'll see if they decide to concede the seat to Toomey out of bitterness and spite afterwards.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2015, 07:19:35 PM »

Politics PA did a website poll recently where he led among their readers, but didn't we learn a lot about that from 1936! (The poll on the side of the screen right now shows their readers also believe Sestak would lose head-to-head vs. Pawlowski.)

Scranton-Times Tribune hasn't done a poll, but one writer claims he's almost definitely in.

All the interested candidates are from areas right next to the eastern border of the state unsurprisingly.

Politics PA polls are a good indicator in the sense that whatever they vote for, the opposite tends to occur. Tongue
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #45 on: April 09, 2015, 07:22:00 PM »

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.
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« Reply #46 on: April 09, 2015, 07:24:33 PM »

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.

Specter joined the democratic party because he was the biggest RINO in the Senate and was publicly asked to switch by Biden and other prominent democrats. Given the political climate of 2010, he almost certainly would have beaten Sestak in a GE.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #47 on: April 09, 2015, 07:31:10 PM »

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.

It's not really on a logical basis. Specter almost certainly would've lost by a bigger margin than Sestak did, that much is obvious. It's completely personal. It was a major black eye against both the PA Dem establishment and the national Dem establishment that not only did Sestak have the gall to challenge Specter (who was backed by nearly everyone from Obama down in exchnage for his party switch), but then actually won.

I don't think Shapiro would be a bad choice, but there's just nothing he really has over Sestak in terms of candidate quality that makes him superior. Maybe that he'd be less likely to get friendly fire even in the GE? Regardless, it's concerning that people are letting their personal and petty vendettas get in the way of a potentially Democratic Senate. If Dems are only 1 away from a majority with Toomey surviving, they only have themselves to blame.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #48 on: April 09, 2015, 07:37:51 PM »

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.

Specter joined the democratic party because he was the biggest RINO in the Senate and was publicly asked to switch by Biden and other prominent democrats. Given the political climate of 2010, he almost certainly would have beaten Sestak in a GE.

He joined the Democratic Party because he had no chance of surviving a primary challenge against Toomey (again I will cite Charlie Crist among many others). Being a RINO doesn't make one a Democrat. It often makes them a DINO if they switch. You of all people should understand that.

He would have beaten Sestak as a Republican, but he didn't have a chance to be that Republican.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #49 on: April 09, 2015, 11:50:05 PM »

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That is the national Democratic establishment, not the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
In Sestak's favor though is that he is a friend of Hillary.
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