Senate: Counties to Watch on Election Night.

[Senator Cris]

I made a work for every competitive Senate race in 2014 about counties to watch during Election Night. In the state maps, the county (or counties) that voted for the state winner during all Presidential, Senate and Gubernatorial elections from 2000 to 2012 is colored green.
The county to watch during Election Night in Iowa is Cedar County.



Presidential Elections:

2000 - Statewide: Gore 49% Bush 48% - Cedar County: Gore 48% Bush 48%
2004 - Statewide: Bush 50% Kerry 49% - Cedar County: Bush 50% Kerry 49%
2008 - Statewide: Obama 54% McCain 44% - Cedar County: Obama 54% McCain 44%
2012 - Statewide: Obama 52% Romney 46% - Cedar County: Obama 52% Romney 47%

Senate Elections:

2002 - Statewide: Harkin 54% Ganske 44% - Cedar County: Harkin 53% Ganske 45%
2004 - Statewide: Grassley 70% Small 28% - Cedar County: Grassley 73% Small 25%
2008 - Statewide: Harkin 63% Reed 37% - Cedar County: Harkin 65% Reed 35%
2010 - Statewide: Grassley 64% Conlin 33% - Cedar County: Grassley 66% Conlin 31%

Gubernatorial Elections:

2002 - Statewide: Vilsack 53% Gross 45% - Cedar County: Vilsack 50% Gross 47%
2006 - Statewide: Culver 54% Nussle 44% - Cedar County: Culver 55% Nussle 44%
2010 - Statewide: Branstad 53% Culver 43% - Cedar County: Branstad 55% Culver 42%

[JohnCA246]

That's pretty incredible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You should base yourself on aggregate percentage distance from the statewide numbers. "Voting for the State winner" is a pretty useless definition if the county was won by 30 points while the State was won by 3.

[IceSpear]

Interesting. Cedar County has also never been in Braley's district, which eliminates a potential variable.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cedar seems to generally be 1-2% more Rebuplican than the state as a whole.

[RR1997]

Thank you for doing this! Really interesting stuff.

[Niemeyerite]

You should base yourself on aggregate percentage distance from the statewide numbers. "Voting for the State winner" is a pretty useless definition if the county was won by 30 points while the State was won by 3.

But a county won by a R or D by 30 points won't have voted for the winner every election since 2000.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You should base yourself on aggregate percentage distance from the statewide numbers. "Voting for the State winner" is a pretty useless definition if the county was won by 30 points while the State was won by 3.

But a county won by a R or D by 30 points won't have voted for the winner every election since 2000.

It's rare, but it can happen. For example, Nevada since 1960 is often cited as a bellwhether because it always went with the winning candidate except in 1976... Despite the fact that from 1964 to 1988 it was always massively more Republican than the country as a whole (but it just so happened that this lean was only decisive in 1976). Nevada is not a bellwether.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson Parish, LA
Carroll County, AR
Anchorage, AK (if we can view Alaska regions)
Caswell County, NC
Gwinnett County, GA
Warren County, KY
Jefferson County, CO

[Miles]

Carroll County, AR

Good for Presidential numbers, but too Republican downballot to be a good measure of the Senate race, IMO.

[ElectionsGuy]

Carroll County, AR

Good for Presidential numbers, but too Republican downballot to be a good measure of the Senate race, IMO.

Yeah, you're right. How about Craighead or Greene county?

[Del Tachi]

Carroll County, AR

Good for Presidential numbers, but too Republican downballot to be a good measure of the Senate race, IMO.

Yeah, you're right. How about Craighead or Greene county?

The margins in Pulsaki will be more telling than anything else

[Miles]

Carroll County, AR

Good for Presidential numbers, but too Republican downballot to be a good measure of the Senate race, IMO.

Yeah, you're right. How about Craighead or Greene county?

Yeah, either of those seem to be decent. AR is a hard state for this. Ideally the bellwhether would be in CD1 or CD2, as those should be fairly neutral areas.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I really want to see how my home county (Campbell County) turns out. One of the Republican polls that had McConnell winning statewide had Grimes winning by 9% in central and northern Kentucky. No way that Grimes is doing 9 points better in Campbell County than statewide.

Campbell County though also has seriously competitive local elections, and there's a very real chance we could have a Democratic state senator for the first time in almost 40 years.

[Senator Cris]

The counties that voted for the state winner during all Presidential, Senate and Gubernatorial elections from 2000 to 2012 in Colorado are Larimer County, Jefferson County, Broomfield County, Arapahoe County and Alamosa County



Presidential Elections:

2000 - Statewide: Bush 51% Gore 42%
Larimer County: Bush 53% Gore 39%
Jefferson County: Bush 51% Gore 43%
Arapahoe County: Bush 52% Gore 43%
Alamosa County: Bush 50% Gore 43%

2004 - Statewide: Bush 52% Kerry 47%
Larimer County: Bush 52% Kerry 47%
Jefferson County: Bush 52% Kerry 47%
Broomfield County: Bush 52% Kerry 47%
Arapahoe County: Bush 51% Kerry 47%
Alamosa County: Bush 51% Kerry 48%

2008 - Statewide: Obama 54% McCain 45%
Larimer County: Obama 54% McCain 44%
Jefferson County: Obama 54% McCain 45%
Broomfield County: Obama 55% McCain 43%
Arapahoe County: Obama 56% McCain 43%
Alamosa County: Obama 56% McCain 42%

2012 - Statewide: Obama 51% Romney 46%
Larimer County: Obama 51% Romney 46%
Jefferson County: Obama 51% Romney 46%
Broomfield County: Obama 52% Romney 46%
Arapahoe County: Obama 54% Romney 44%
Alamosa County: Obama 57% Romney 40%

Senate Elections:

2002 - Statewide: Allard 51% Strickland 46%
Larimer County: Allard 54% Strickland 43%
Jefferson County: Allard 51% Strickland 46%
Broomfield County: Allard 52% Strickland 45%
Arapahoe County: Allard 52% Strickland 45%
Alamosa County: Allard 51% Strickland 45%

2004 - Statewide: Salazar 51% Coors 47%
Larimer County: Salazar 51% Coors 47%
Jefferson County: Salazar 51% Coors 47%
Broomfield County: Salazar 52% Coors 46%
Arapahoe County: Salazar 52% Coors 46%
Alamosa County: Salazar 64% Coors 35%

2008 - Statewide: Udall 53% Schaffer 43%
Larimer County: Udall 52% Schaffer 44%
Jefferson County: Udall 53% Schaffer 42%
Broomfield County: Udall 54% Schaffer 42%
Arapahoe County: Udall 54% Schaffer 42%
Alamosa County: Udall 56% Schaffer 37%

2010 - Statewide: Bennet 48% Buck 46%
Larimer County: Bennet 48% Buck 46%
Jefferson County: Bennet 48% Buck 46%
Broomfield County: Bennet 49% Buck 46%
Arapahoe County: Bennet 50% Buck 45%
Alamosa County: Bennet 54% Buck 40%

Gubernatorial Elections:

2002 - Statewide: Owens 63% Heath 34%
Larimer County: Owens 65% Heath 30%
Jefferson County: Owens 65% Heath 32%
Broomfield County: Owens 66% Heath 31%
Arapahoe County: Owens 67% Heath 31%
Alamosa County: Owens 56% Heath 41%

2006 - Statewide: Ritter 57% Beauprez 40%
Larimer County: Ritter 56% Beauprez 40%
Jefferson County: Ritter 58% Beauprez 40%
Broomfield County: Ritter 57% Beauprez 41%
Arapahoe County: Ritter 58% Beauprez 40%
Alamosa County: Ritter 65% Beauprez 33%

2010 - Statewide: Hickenlooper 51% Tancredo 36%
Larimer County: Hickenlooper 51% Tancredo 36%
Jefferson County: Hickenlooper 51% Tancredo 41%
Broomfield County: Hickenlooper 52% Tancredo 38%
Arapahoe County: Hickenlooper 53% Tancredo 39%
Alamosa County: Hickenlooper 58% Tancredo 22%

[Antonio the Sixth]

See, Alamosa County clearly isn't a good bellwether if Bennet carried it by 14 points.

[IceSpear]

Just eyeballing it without doing the math, Jefferson seems most consistent with the statewide margin.

[Niemeyerite]

See, Alamosa County clearly isn't a good bellwether if Bennet carried it by 14 points.

But we have Jefferson, which is the perfect bellwether.

[JerryArkansas]

Carroll County, AR

Good for Presidential numbers, but too Republican downballot to be a good measure of the Senate race, IMO.

Yeah, you're right. How about Craighead or Greene county?

Yeah, either of those seem to be decent. AR is a hard state for this. Ideally the bellwhether would be in CD1 or CD2, as those should be fairly neutral areas.

What I will be looking at for Arkansas will be the margin in Washington/Benton County, and vote percentage in counties that Blanche won.  That will give you good indication of what is happening.