KS: Paul Davis addresses strip club incident

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Posting this story was the absolute worst decision for obvious Minnesotan reasons.

This, also what a dumb way to blow an election

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Posting this story was the absolute worst decision for obvious Minnesotan reasons.

This, also what a dumb way to blow an election

How would this blow the election? Obviously this is sad on Brownback's part from my perspective. Then again, I'm not the average Kansan.

It's pathetic and shows major desperation on Brownback's part, but Kansas is nothing if not a bible belt state.  Sadly, I could see this giving just enough Republicans an excuse not to vote for Davis for Brownback to win by the skin of his teeth (especially with the Libertarian likely already taking a small but significant number of would-be Davis votes).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also, the ad writes itself: "Who else is Paul Davis in bed with"

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Does this remind anyone of the whole "woman in the car" story with FitzGerald?

I'm afraid such a comparison would be extremely inaccurate.  The Davis faux-scandal and the FitzGerald scandal differ in a number of key ways.  Let's review the material again, shall we? 

1. Unlike Paul Davis, who had turned this into a lean Democratic race before the strip club incident was revealed, Ed FitzGerald never had a snowball's chance in Detroit of winning.

2. Unlike Paul Davis, who was just getting a lap dance in a strip club 16 years ago and wasn't even been married at the time, FitzGerald was pretty clearly having an affair.  In fact, those who insist he was probably just innocently sitting in an empty parking lot with a woman who wasn't his wife despite the fact that his version of the incident doesn't hold up at all should probably be referred to as "FitzGerald truthers." 

3. Unlike Paul Davis, who by all accounts didn't do anything illegal, Ed FitzGerald was also illegally driving a number of vehicles (including a county car) for about ten years because he didn't bother to get his driver's license renewed (for reasons unknown).  Furthermore, FitzGerald punished multiple individuals for driving without a license even as he himself was doing the exact same thing.

4. Unlike Paul Davis, who hasn't done anything like this, Ed FitzGerald sent out fundraising e-mails shortly after his scandal was reported which made it sound like his son's cancer (IIRC) appeared coming back in a pathetic attempt to raise money off his son's illness and try to distract people from the fact that he (FitzGerald) was imploding after being exposed as a law-breaking, womanizing, hypocrite who no one ever really liked in the first place (except Adam). 

5. Unlike Paul Davis, who is running against a highly unpopular Governor with very few supporters other than people who will reflexively vote for anyone if he/she has an R next to their name, Ed FitzGerald is facing a Governor with average popularity with a solid support base who *used to be* extremely unpopular, but now generally gets a "meh, he's okay, I guess" rating from many Ohioans outside of the Republican party.

6. Unlike Paul Davis, who is still running a very competitive race, Ed FitzGerald has basically all-but-suspended his campaign and only failed to do that because it'd mean his name would be out of the papers and that may well be all he has left

7. Unlike Paul Davis, whose race is probably now toss-up tilt R at worst, there is no chance FitzGerald can still pull out a win. 

8. Unlike Paul Davis, who won't hurt Democrats in the SoS race or Greg Orman in the Senate race even if Brownback wins, it is pretty much a given that FitzGerald will cost many good Democratic candidates their races (ex: the only statewide officer race that is now even remotely competitive is State Treasurer which has gone from Lean D to right on the border between Lean R and Toss-up tilt-R because of FitzGerald).

Study these notes and you should have no trouble with tomorrow's quiz.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why did that guy even call 911 on FitzGerald? That's what I never understood. It wasn't even remotely an emergency.

I don't know, but does it really matter?  I'm not saying I would've called the police, but I can sorta understand why someone might if the lot was private property.

quote author=IceSpear link=topic=199064.msg4308353#msg4308353 date=1411317059]

Does this remind anyone of the whole "woman in the car" story with FitzGerald?

I'm afraid such a comparison would be extremely inaccurate.  The Davis faux-scandal and the FitzGerald scandal differ in a number of key ways.  Let's review the material again, shall we? 

1. Unlike Paul Davis, who had turned this into a lean Democratic race before the strip club incident was revealed, Ed FitzGerald never had a snowball's chance in Detroit of winning.

2. Unlike Paul Davis, who was just getting a lap dance in a strip club 16 years ago and wasn't even been married at the time, FitzGerald was pretty clearly having an affair.  In fact, those who insist he was probably just innocently sitting in an empty parking lot with a woman who wasn't his wife despite the fact that his version of the incident doesn't hold up at all should probably be referred to as "FitzGerald truthers." 

3. Unlike Paul Davis, who by all accounts didn't do anything illegal, Ed FitzGerald was also illegally driving a number of vehicles (including a county car) for about ten years because he didn't bother to get his driver's license renewed (for reasons unknown).  Furthermore, FitzGerald punished multiple individuals for driving without a license even as he himself was doing the exact same thing.

4. Unlike Paul Davis, who hasn't done anything like this, Ed FitzGerald sent out fundraising e-mails shortly after his scandal was reported which made it sound like his son's cancer (IIRC) appeared coming back in a pathetic attempt to raise money off his son's illness and try to distract people from the fact that he (FitzGerald) was imploding after being exposed as a law-breaking, womanizing, hypocrite who no one ever really liked in the first place (except Adam). 

5. Unlike Paul Davis, who is running against a highly unpopular Governor with very few supporters other than people who will reflexively vote for anyone if he/she has an R next to their name, Ed FitzGerald is facing a Governor with average popularity with a solid support base who *used to be* extremely unpopular, but now generally gets a "meh, he's okay, I guess" rating from many Ohioans outside of the Republican party.

6. Unlike Paul Davis, who is still running a very competitive race, Ed FitzGerald has basically all-but-suspended his campaign and only failed to do that because it'd mean his name would be out of the papers and that may well be all he has left

7. Unlike Paul Davis, whose race is probably now toss-up tilt R at worst, there is no chance FitzGerald can still pull out a win. 

8. Unlike Paul Davis, who won't hurt Democrats in the SoS race or Greg Orman in the Senate race even if Brownback wins, it is pretty much a given that FitzGerald will cost many good Democratic candidates their races (ex: the only statewide officer race that is now even remotely competitive is State Treasurer which has gone from Lean D to right on the border between Lean R and Toss-up tilt-R because of FitzGerald).

Study these notes and you should have no trouble with tomorrow's quiz.

Agreed with most of this, but I take issue with 2 and 7. The only evidence which contradicted FitzGerald's version of events was the word of the 911 caller, who easily could've been mistaken or going based solely off assumptions. Just being in a parked car with a woman does not guarantee you're having sex with them. As for 7, I doubt this will effect the race in any way.  If Davis was married at the time, of course, it would be a different story.
[/quote]

Regarding 2, if a man is in a car at 4:00 in the morning in an empty parking lot with a woman who isn't his wife and the person who called the police thought it looked like the man and woman were having sex, what's more likely?  That the man was having an affair or that the woman got lost at 4:00 AM and the man (who also doesn't have a driver's license ) was helping her find the rest of her group who were at some event at 4:00 AM?  I'd say the former and that's FitzGerald's problem (well...one of them ): At this point, even if by some freak chance he's telling the truth about that part, the whole thing looks so bad that no one is gonna believe him anyway and that's really what matters here.  Beyond which, the worst thing wasn't the affair, it was the way he tried to hide behind his son's cancer and raise money off it.  Even as far as U.S. politics goes, that was exceptionally sleazy. 

Regarding 7, I think you may've misunderstood what I meant.  I was saying even in the worst case scenario, I can't see the Davis thing doing more than making it toss-up tilt-R.  I personally think the strip club thing moves it from lean-D to pure tossup, but it could easily go right back to lean-D if the next couple of polls show this having had no effect.  My concern is that there are a lot of Republicans who were planning to hold their noses and vote for Davis because they hate Brownback, but are still looking for any excuse to vote against the Democrat.  Kansas being Kansas, this is something that could serve as an excuse to rationalize voting for Brownback or even simply the Libertarian.  Fortunately, I suspect most of the Republicans who would be angriest about this sort of thing are probably already in the Brownback camp, but I could easily see some moderate female Republican voters voting Libertarian over this.  The issue is really that (to oversimplify things a bit) Democrats win in Kansas if they do everything right and the Republican does everything wrong.  That's basically why Brownback and Kobach are in danger.  The Senate race is a freak occurrence and basically uncharted territory.  I'm less confident about Kobach losing because while he's basically done everything wrong, I don't know if his opponent has done everything right or not.  Davis has been running a top-notch campaign, it isn't enough that Brownback's policies were FUBAR.