NC-02: Can Clay Aiken win?

[Miles]

With very few competitive Congressional races in NC, this is one of the more interesting races. Clay Aiken received a good bit of hype when he first got in, and even going up to the May primary, but since then, this race has pretty much been invisible.

Lets start out with the Presidential results. On this level, the district is not competitive. McCain won 56/43 and Romney improved to about 57/42:



On a county basis, here's how Obama's strength in the district looked:



As you go further into the Piedmont, Obama's margin steadily drops off. The two primary areas of strength are in the east. The Wake County part of the district mostly consists of swingy precincts around Cary and Apex. Obama also carried the Cumberland County portion, even with most of Fayetteville absent; this area swung to him and will probably continue in that direction.

The most Republican-rich county in the district is Randolph (that square one in the far left). The county is usually one of the top 5 most GOP in the state; LBJ even lost it by 13% 1964. Its main city, Ashboro (not to be confused with the very liberal Asheville in the mountains) is relatively conservative; the rural areas are heavily evangelical. Republicans usually carry the county with 65-75%.

Other than Randolph, the second most GOP-friendly county is Moore, directly south. The largest city here is Pinehurst, which apparently is important if you're into golf. Its not as overwhelmingly Republican as Randolph, but Romney still won with a punishing 64/36. Democrats can usually come within 20% here if they're winning by at least 5% statewide.

Now, here's how much of the total district votes that each county casts:



There's not a really a 'center of gravity' for the district. Wake County casts a plurality of the votes, with Randolph and Cumberland close for second place. The good news for Aiken is that the two highest-voting counties voted Obama, though only by a few points. Still, Randolph and Moore are third and fourth, respectively, and vote Republican by overwhelming margins. Those four counties (Wake, Cumberland, Randolph, Moore) account for about 70% of the district. The counties that make up the remaining 30% voted about the same as the district as whole.

Comparing Ellmers to Romney, there was an interesting divide. I was expecting to Romney to perform better in the suburban areas and worse elsewhere, but  it was the opposite. I'm borrowing this map from Stephen Wolf, who posts a lot of great NC stuff at DKE:


(Pink= Ellmers, Blue=Romney)

Ellmers won by a similar margin, 56/41, to that of Romney. I think the Presidential/Congressional dichotomy was primarily due to redistricting. Ellmers, being the newest member of the delegation at the time, had the least clout; she got a seat that was over 70% new to her. She represented parts of Wake and Cumberland counties previously, so I think why she performed relatively well there.

Still, by most accounts, Hagan will be running disproportionately well in the Triangle and could lift Aiken there. The Wake County section will probably the area that swings the hardest against Ellmers this year.

So, what would an actual path to victory look like for Aiken? The best performing Democrat in 2012 was June Atkinson, the Superintendent of Public Instruction. Perhaps examining her coalition would be helpful:


Atkinson won 54/46 overall, but still came up 1.6% short in NC-02.

What did Atkinson do differently than Obama? First, she did better in Democratic-leaning areas. She won the Wake County precincts 57/42 and put up an even more impressive 65/35 in Cumberland County. She lost the rest of the district by a respectable 54/46, while Obama was closer to losing 62/38.

Keith Crisco was a rare Democrat from Randolph County and it supported him heavily over Aiken in the primary. As such, in the Piedmont counties, he has to work on consolidating Democrats as well as crossing over to Republicans.

So, overall, I'd say that this race is Likely R. Winning would require Aiken to put up solid margins in only mildly Democratic areas. This would be somewhat feasible; Hagan, again, will lift him in Wake County and his emphasis on defense/national security should help in Cumberland County. Still, he would need to run noticeably ahead of the Presidential baseline in the hostile Piedmont counties. If Aiken pulls this off, Democrats would surely be having a perfect day.

[Dixie Reborn]

I agree with you; Likely R seems like the best rating for this race. If this were 2012, or any other better year for Democrats, I'd put this at Lean R.

Also, what do you think about the theory that Aiken is running in this cycle to build support and/or test the waters for a run in 2016, when Democrats will obviously have a much better year and Ellmers will probably face a stronger Tea Party challenge?

[Miles]

Also, what do you think about the theory that Aiken is running in this cycle to build support and/or test the waters for a run in 2016, when Democrats will obviously have a much better year and Ellmers will probably face a stronger Tea Party challenge?

Hmm, I haven't heard that, but I wouldn't be surprised. A better way for him to get to Congress would be to wait till Price retires (I'm sure within the next cycle or two) and run for that safe seat. If he does that, now carpetbagging charges would come up. Running statewide would be a more logical step.

There are any number of stronger Republican legislators in this district; I'd argue he's best going against Ellmers again, as she's not a great candidate in the first place. Barring a decent wave, even in 2016, this race would be Tilt R at best.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think Aiken was chosen by the party as a bait candidate of sorts. Essentially, running a generic D in the district makes it likely that the partisan hold of the district will carry Ellmers to victory. Running a gay reality TV star makes it more likely that Ellmers will say something horrible a la Akin and turn the race. It hasn't happened so far, but the gambit sort of makes sense.

[Maxwell]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

That's what I'm saying, though. His presence makes it more likely that she'll say something dumb.

They were losing the seat either way this year (midterm turnout, poor polls for the Dems). So they'd rather lose by 10 with the slight chance of baiting Ellmers into a game-ending gaffe, as opposed to losing by five with a decent local candidate.

[Vega]

No. He doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell.

[SWE]

No. He doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

That's what I'm saying, though. His presence makes it more likely that she'll say something dumb.

They were losing the seat either way this year (midterm turnout, poor polls for the Dems). So they'd rather lose by 10 with the slight chance of baiting Ellmers into a game-ending gaffe, as opposed to losing by five with a decent local candidate.

The plan was to run the late Keith Crisco as wave insurance, but Aiken (somehow) barely beat him in the primary and Crisco died shortly afterward.

[KCDem]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

That's what I'm saying, though. His presence makes it more likely that she'll say something dumb.

They were losing the seat either way this year (midterm turnout, poor polls for the Dems). So they'd rather lose by 10 with the slight chance of baiting Ellmers into a game-ending gaffe, as opposed to losing by five with a decent local candidate.

The plan was to run the late Keith Crisco as wave insurance, but Aiken (somehow) barely beat him in the primary and Crisco died shortly afterward.

Whose plan? The DCCC supported Aiken in the primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

That's what I'm saying, though. His presence makes it more likely that she'll say something dumb.

They were losing the seat either way this year (midterm turnout, poor polls for the Dems). So they'd rather lose by 10 with the slight chance of baiting Ellmers into a game-ending gaffe, as opposed to losing by five with a decent local candidate.

The plan was to run the late Keith Crisco as wave insurance, but Aiken (somehow) barely beat him in the primary and Crisco died shortly afterward.

Whose plan? The DCCC supported Aiken in the primary.

My understanding was that Crisco had the backing of most of the local and state party establishment, I could be mistaken though.

[KCDem]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

That's what I'm saying, though. His presence makes it more likely that she'll say something dumb.

They were losing the seat either way this year (midterm turnout, poor polls for the Dems). So they'd rather lose by 10 with the slight chance of baiting Ellmers into a game-ending gaffe, as opposed to losing by five with a decent local candidate.

The plan was to run the late Keith Crisco as wave insurance, but Aiken (somehow) barely beat him in the primary and Crisco died shortly afterward.

Whose plan? The DCCC supported Aiken in the primary.

My understanding was that Crisco had the backing of most of the local and state party establishment, I could be mistaken though.

No you got that backwards...

[Maxwell]

Nah. Aiken is a weaker than average candidate due to his notoriety, and works only if Ellmers says something dumb. Ellmers hasn't, probably won't, and so Aiken will lose by a healthy double digit margin.

That's what I'm saying, though. His presence makes it more likely that she'll say something dumb.

They were losing the seat either way this year (midterm turnout, poor polls for the Dems). So they'd rather lose by 10 with the slight chance of baiting Ellmers into a game-ending gaffe, as opposed to losing by five with a decent local candidate.

The plan was to run the late Keith Crisco as wave insurance, but Aiken (somehow) barely beat him in the primary and Crisco died shortly afterward.

I'm surprised Crisco was even close to Aiken. Name Recognition is a big freakin deal.

[Miles]

I'm surprised Crisco was even close to Aiken. Name Recognition is a big freakin deal.

Yeah, Aiken ran a pretty bad campaign though, and I think Crisco outspent him going up the primary.

[Maxwell]

It turns out Clay Aiken won the "who will gaffe first" contest, he said that Jennifer Lawrence "desereves what she gets" for that whole nude photos controversy.

What a douche.

[IceSpear]

No. He doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell.

[Badger]

No. He doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell.

[Bigby]

Running Clay Aiken for a House seat is basically the left wing version of running Phil Robertson for a House seat. Sure the base loves what they say, but they're infamously extremist and are unable to a genuine election.

[Miles]

^ I agree to a point. I wouldn't say Aiken is an extremist. He's running as a defense hawk; I don't imagine thats' what you'd expect if he was really from the far-left.

[Bigby]

^ I agree to a point. I wouldn't say Aiken is an extremist. He's running as a defense hawk; I don't imagine thats' what you'd expect if he was really from the far-left.

Was he running as a defense hawk before ISIS became big in the news recently? It seems non-interventionism has temporarily died this election cycle.

[Miles]

^  Yes. He talked a good bit about military interests at Fort Bragg, even in his announcement video.

[Bigby]

^  Yes. He talked a good bit about military interests at Fort Bragg, even in his announcement video.

Wow, that's actually shocking. In that case, I think the main reason he won't win is because of his gaffes and his status as a celebrity singer.

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Short answer: No.

Long answer: HELL NO!

[Bacon King]

Yes I am actually optimistic here