Presidential Candidate Over/Under Performance.

[Thomas D]

1924- Coolidge- 54.04%

Over-Blue- 298
Under-Red- 233

You can draw a line on the map that divides the Country by where Davis or LaFollete kept Coolidge below his number.

[Dancing with Myself]

Stephen Douglas 1860 29.52%:

Over (Red)-130   EV's
Under (Blue)-161 EV's



With %'s:

Left the southern and under-performing states blue.

[Dancing with Myself]

John Kerry 2004 48.26%

Over-perfomed: 284 EVs
Under-performed: 254 EV's


It's amazing how much Kerry over-performed in the big power states, yet he still managed to choke in Florida and Ohio.

[Dancing with Myself]

Wendell Willkie 1940 44.77%

Over- 321 EV's
Under- 210 EV's


1940 is a forgotten election but it really shouldn't be. Willkie brought the Republicans back from the pits of failure in 1936, and gave them a swing of 11%. That's not easy to do, but he was a decent campaigner and not borderline incompetent as Landon was.

He overperformed FDR in a lot of places.

[Thomas D]

1948- Truman- 49.55%

Under-Blue- 308
Over-Red- 223

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Gary Johnson, 2012: 0.99%

Because it had to be done.

Under (Blue): 243
Over (Red): 273
Tie (Green): 15
Not on Ballot (Grey): 7

Basically exactly what you'd expect though Illinois and Arkansas surprised me personally.

Degree of color represents degree of over/underperformance. Didn't do any crazy math to get the ranges. Did (Max-National)/7 and (Min-National)/7 for each color which is why there's a lot of 30% shade. New Mexico is the highest and Michigan unsurprisingly the lowest.

[SingingAnalyst]

Carter's underperformance in 1976 in Mass. was notable, in that it came from disparate constituencies: white ethnics in South Boston upset over busing, and liberals in Newton and Brookline who were turned off by Carter's evangelicalism. Still, Mass. was Carter's best New England state, pointing to the extreme Democratic domination in Mass. from 1960-72. Also Dukakis' underperformance in NH in '88, when he balked at an emergency evacuation plan for Seabrook. In fact NH was Bush's 2nd best state in 88, inconceivable for any new england state today.