Predict Margin (%) for NC-Senate
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  Predict Margin (%) for NC-Senate
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Author Topic: Predict Margin (%) for NC-Senate  (Read 892 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: September 21, 2014, 05:05:32 PM »

In light of recent events.

Hagan - 51%
Tillis - 45%
Haugh - 4%
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2014, 05:08:02 PM »

It should tighten some by election day, I'll go with this:

Hagan: 49%
Tillis: 45%
Haugh: 6%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2014, 05:15:31 PM »

Hagan - 48%
Tillis - 46%
Haugh - 6%

It'll be a Virginia situation where it gets closer to the end, but reality is, Tillis won't win because he's too unpopular. Still, I think this will be a 1 to 2 point race.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2014, 05:22:58 PM »

Hagan by 4%.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2014, 05:31:09 PM »

Hagan- 49%
Tillis- 47%
Haugh- 4%

If the election were today I'd say Hagan by 3-5%, but I think the race will start to tighten this month. This was right when Hagan started to break away as a challenger. The average in RCP is Hagan +5; if thats still the case in mid-October, I'll feel better.

I think Haugh will fade, but he'll be in at least one debate, so he could still have a Sarvis-like showing.
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Vega
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2014, 05:31:33 PM »

Hagan: 50%
Tillis: 44%
Haugh: 6%
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2014, 05:50:48 PM »

Hagan 51%
Tillis 48%
Haugh 1%
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2014, 05:54:20 PM »

Tillis - 48%
Hagan - 47%
Haugh - 4%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2014, 07:26:35 PM »

Hagan - 51%
Tillis - 47%
Haugh - 2%
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Frodo
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2014, 07:33:52 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2014, 07:36:29 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2014, 08:10:15 PM »

Hagan:  49%
Tillis:  48%
Haugh: 3%
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Frodo
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2014, 09:40:42 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

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Joe Republic
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2014, 09:51:36 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

Obama +3 in Minnesota; ended up being +8.
Obama +2 in Wisconsin; ended up being +7.
Obama +7 in Connecticut; ended up being +17.

MD used to be good.  Now they're just so-so.
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rbt48
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2014, 10:19:25 PM »

Well, I might as well continue the partisan trend in these predictions:

Tillis - 50%
Hagan-47%
Haugh - 3%
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Frodo
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2014, 10:20:32 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

Obama +3 in Minnesota; ended up being +8.
Obama +2 in Wisconsin; ended up being +7.
Obama +7 in Connecticut; ended up being +17.

MD used to be good.  Now they're just so-so.

And how about senatorial races?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2014, 10:23:18 PM »

Tillis - 49%
Hagan - 46%
Haugh - 5%
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2014, 10:30:22 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

Obama +3 in Minnesota; ended up being +8.
Obama +2 in Wisconsin; ended up being +7.
Obama +7 in Connecticut; ended up being +17.

MD used to be good.  Now they're just so-so.

And how about senatorial races?

Pretty terrible:

(2012)
FL D+6; reality was D+13
MT R+4; reality was D+4
ND R+2; reality was D+1
MO D+2; reality was D+16
WI D+2; reality was D+6
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2014, 10:36:11 PM »

Hagan 49
Tillis 46
Haugh 5
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KCDem
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2014, 10:52:51 PM »

Hagan will curbstomp Tillis.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2014, 10:57:43 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

Obama +3 in Minnesota; ended up being +8.
Obama +2 in Wisconsin; ended up being +7.
Obama +7 in Connecticut; ended up being +17.

MD used to be good.  Now they're just so-so.

And how about senatorial races?

Pretty terrible:

(2012)
FL D+6; reality was D+13
MT R+4; reality was D+4
ND R+2; reality was D+1
MO D+2; reality was D+16
WI D+2; reality was D+6

The one I trust for NC is PPP... which was last week and had Hagan up by 4% - not because the D is ahead, but because I generally trust PPP for NC.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2014, 11:04:09 PM »

Hagan 47.5%
Tillis 46.2%
Haugh 6.1%
Other/Write-in 0.2%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2014, 11:11:53 PM »

A Mason-Dixon poll on this race (and others throughout the South) would clear the air nicely....   

After their final definitive poll of Florida in 2012... that showed Romney +6... I'm not that comfortable having too much faith in them.

So it missed Florida -it made a mistake.  Can you name a polling company that doesn't?  But compared to some I have seen here, Mason-Dixon is still among the top pollsters in the country.

Obama +3 in Minnesota; ended up being +8.
Obama +2 in Wisconsin; ended up being +7.
Obama +7 in Connecticut; ended up being +17.

MD used to be good.  Now they're just so-so.

And how about senatorial races?

Pretty terrible:

(2012)
FL D+6; reality was D+13
MT R+4; reality was D+4
ND R+2; reality was D+1
MO D+2; reality was D+16
WI D+2; reality was D+6

To be fair, North Dakota was within margin of error, and even PPP got Missouri wrong by a ridicolous amount (I think they also had McCaskill up by only 2). Wisconsin was fairly close too. Montana and Florida, however, are pretty inexcusable.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2014, 11:35:38 PM »

Hagan 50%
Tillis 46%
Haugh 4%
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Vern
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« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2014, 06:31:05 PM »


Hagan 48%
Tillis 44%
Haugh 6%
Other 2%
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