AR: Hickman (D): Pryor narrowly ahead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:01:20 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  AR: Hickman (D): Pryor narrowly ahead
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: AR: Hickman (D): Pryor narrowly ahead  (Read 1928 times)
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 22, 2014, 08:27:48 AM »

Article.

Pryor (D)- 46%
Cotton (R)- 43%
Logged
JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,045


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2014, 09:24:01 AM »

Within the margin of error in a freaking DSCC poll?

Advantage Cotton.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2014, 09:50:11 AM »

A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,775
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2014, 11:02:48 AM »

Cotton is too conservative for state. Pryor is a NRA Dem that isnt a lightening rod. He.will win.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2014, 11:06:35 AM »

Cotton is too conservative for state. Pryor is a NRA Dem that isnt a lightening rod. He.will win.

Either that or 2014 simply say for certain what 2010 said and what 2006 tried to refute. Pushing to the center (or even across the aisle) isn't an alternative to winning debates and expanding the map.
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2014, 11:33:29 AM »

The only polls showing Pryor leading are internals and a single Rasmussen poll several weeks ago.  I just don't think that Republicans have anything to worry about here.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2014, 11:36:54 AM »

Within the margin of error in a freaking DSCC poll?

Advantage Cotton.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2014, 11:37:25 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2014, 11:42:13 AM by FreedomHawk »

A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

If you have a huge confirmation bias maybe. There's a reason this isn't in RCP
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2014, 11:52:07 AM »

A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

If you have a huge confirmation bias maybe

They were decent overall:

North Dakota: Heitkamp +4
Pennsylvania: Casey +12
Missouri: McCaskill +13
Indiana: Donnelly +7
Arizona: Carmona +4

PPP aslo did internals for the LCV and found Tester up 2 and Warren up 9.

The Heitkamp poll was a bit generous, but at least it picked the right winner.

The Casey internal also showed a large lead, but Republicans were showing a tied race.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2014, 11:54:06 AM »

A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

If you have a huge confirmation bias maybe. There's a reason this isn't in RCP

Internals don't usually get included in averages anywhere, but that doesn't mean they are necessarily inaccurate.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2014, 12:54:06 PM »

Releasing a D+3 internal isn't actually the worst thing to do:

The lead is not big enough so that potential supporters/voters think the race is over and then stay home on election day, but also not small enough to indicate a loss of the candidate.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,775
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2014, 01:46:42 PM »

This race will be heavily contested snd Dems dont want Cotton in senate.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2014, 05:27:12 PM »

This race will be heavily contested snd Dems dont want Cotton in senate.

Thanks for that insight.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,803
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2014, 07:01:20 PM »

This race will be heavily contested snd Dems dont want Cotton in senate.

Thanks for that insight.

Yeah, I didn't know that either.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2014, 07:55:44 PM »

This race will be heavily contested snd Dems dont want Cotton in senate.

I never knew this
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2014, 09:08:15 PM »

This race will be heavily contested snd Dems dont want Cotton in senate.

Thanks for that insight.

Yeah, I didn't know that either.

Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2014, 10:19:07 PM »


A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

Dem internal = facts are facts
GOP internal = made up numbers

Gotcha.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2014, 10:33:22 PM »

Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2014, 10:41:42 PM »

Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2014, 11:26:55 PM »

A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

If you have a huge confirmation bias maybe

They were decent overall:

North Dakota: Heitkamp +4
Pennsylvania: Casey +12
Missouri: McCaskill +13
Indiana: Donnelly +7
Arizona: Carmona +4

PPP aslo did internals for the LCV and found Tester up 2 and Warren up 9.

The Heitkamp poll was a bit generous, but at least it picked the right winner.

The Casey internal also showed a large lead, but Republicans were showing a tied race.

And here come the facts, barreling out of nowhere...
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,613
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2014, 01:25:40 AM »


A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

Dem internal = facts are facts
GOP internal = made up numbers

Gotcha.

Do you deny the fact that Democratic firms like Mellman and GHY are much more accurate and respected than Republican ones (McLaughlin, Gravis, WAA, etc.)?
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2014, 08:50:02 AM »


A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

Dem internal = facts are facts
GOP internal = made up numbers

Gotcha.

Did you not see how off GOP internals were in 2012? They used completely unrealistic screens and ended up with terrible results, even Romney's campaign had terrible polling. On the other hand, Democratic internals were more accurate.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2014, 09:11:16 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2014, 09:28:29 AM by Never »

A lead is a lead. Democratic internals were good in 2012.

If you have a huge confirmation bias maybe

They were decent overall:

North Dakota: Heitkamp +4
Pennsylvania: Casey +12
Missouri: McCaskill +13
Indiana: Donnelly +7
Arizona: Carmona +4

PPP aslo did internals for the LCV and found Tester up 2 and Warren up 9.

The Heitkamp poll was a bit generous, but at least it picked the right winner.

The Casey internal also showed a large lead, but Republicans were showing a tied race.

And here come the facts, barreling out of nowhere...

If this internal from Arkansas is as accurate as the Democratic one from Arizona in 2012 that Miles linked, I don't think it's a good idea to be so optimistic about Pryor actually having a lead or anything. Democratic internals aren't always accurate.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 15 queries.