Tunisian parliamentary (10/26) and presidential (11/23) elections, 2014

[Simfan34]

The incumbent, Mohammed Marzouki, is running for a full term, which he declared two days ago after dithering, and his main challenger appears to be Ben Ali's foreign minister, Kamel Morjane.

Marzouki has just spoken here, and he said that "the old system is coming back" and have taken advantage of the same sort of democracy they suppressed. He is a member of a secularist party but seems to be close to the "moderate Islamist" Ennadha Party, which does not have a candidate.

Will Tunisia remain the sole exception to the general failure of the Arab Spring to deliver democracy to the countries it's swept through?

Will this election pit Islamists vs. "feloul" as it seems to have been elsewhere?

[politicus]

You should give the date in the thread title. Its November 23.

Also, maybe we should combine the parliamentary and presidential elections? The parliamentary is October 26.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_parliamentary_election,_2014

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_presidential_election,_2014

[Famous Mortimer]

The incumbent, Mohammed Marzouki, is running for a full term, which he declared two days ago after dithering, and his main challenger appears to be Ben Ali's foreign minister, Kamel Morjane.

Where are you reading that? His main challenger is Beji Caid el Sebsi, who served as interim Prime Minister after the revolution. Although I suspect you are confused because el Sebsi was Foreign Minister as well.

Kamel Morjane was the guy the US State Department was pushing to be leader but he ended up being a damp squib. His party only managed to scrap up 5 seats in parliamentary elections.

[swl]

I think the election of Sunday is the most interesting election of the end of this year. Especially for those who wonder whether Western type democracy can work in Arab countries. I am looking forward to it. Unfortunately opinion polls are not reliable at all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think the election of Sunday is the most interesting election of the end of this year. Especially for those who wonder whether Western type democracy can work in Arab countries. I am looking forward to it. Unfortunately opinion polls are not reliable at all.

Yeah, I'm definitely looking forward to it as well.

[Foucaulf]

I never did finish the primer on Tunisian politics posted in an earlier thread. I doubt I will at this rate. Here are some notes:

-Even though political factions spilled over immediately after Ben Ali's ouster (I think I remember 200 parties participating in the Constituent Assembly elections), the current political climate is divided into three square camps: the Islamists (rallying behind Ennahda), the regime leftovers (congregated behind Nidaa Tounes, the "Call for Tunisia"), and the leftists (the trade unions and the Popular Front).

-As Rachid Ghannouchi being the leader of Ennahda, Nidaa Tounes was spearheaded by Beji Caid el Sebsi, stalwart of the old regime. "Old regime" here needs some clarification, since it is as much the regime of Habib Bourgiba, Tunisia's first president, as it is of Ben Ali, who overthrew him. Nidaa Tounes feeds off of those dissatisfied with the corrosion of government control under the Ennahda-led government. Along with the Popular Front, it was a negotiator following protests in Tunis over killings of leftist politicians in 2013. That resulted in Ennahda withdrawing and accepting an independent government, plus a new constitution withdrawing any explictly Islamist clauses.

-As far as I can tell, the new constitution establishes a sort of semi-presidential system. In practice, the balance of power between the President and the Prime Minister is yet to be decided. You can see all the party leaders running for the Presidency, except for one; knowing its divisiveness, Ennahda is not nominating a presidential candidate. BCE is a clear frontrunner, followed by Morjane (more explicitly part of the Ben Ali circle), Popular Front leader Hamma Hammami, and Marzouki.

-In what way are Tunisian polls biased? The obvious trend is overweighing those in Tunis, modernists with a bent toward Nidaa Tounes. Meanwhile, Ennahda is dominant in the south and the Popular Front more popular in the West (cities like Kessarine). I'm afraid I don't know too much about demography.

[swl]

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2014/10/tunisia-decides-20141021164020540690.html

[Foucaulf]

Counting has begun for the parliamentary elections. As a reminder, 199 seats out of 217 total are reserved for Tunisians living in the country, with another 18 abroad. Polls for Tunisians abroad have opened and closed, with results counted simultaneously.

The electoral agency, ISIE, does not seem to have an online portal for results. They have announced a 59.99% turnout at their last press conference. Apparently, due to problems with poll collections no official results will be announced until Monday morning Tunisian time. Tunisia Live is still recommended as the best, if not only English source for results.

[Foucaulf]

ISIE supposed to announce preliminary results in a few hours. Some agencies (Reuters, i-TELE in France) are saying Nidaa Tounes is ahead with 70% of votes counted, with 81 seats to Ennahda's 56. Others say it's 80-67. Other seats are divided between the Popular Front, the liberal Afek Tounes and the Free Patriotic Union, a party ran by oil mogul and expat Slim Riahi with allegations of vote buying.

[swl]

So the election went well with virtually no violence during the polling day, turnout is higher than last time while everyone expected the opposite, and the secular party should finish first. So far it seems very positive.

[sirius3100]

How is the turnout defined in this case? Is it the percentage of registred voters that voted, or is it the fraction of all people that could register to vote and did actually vote?

[Famous Mortimer]

https://twitter.com/aa_french

Preliminary results:

Call of Tunisia 83
Islamists 68
Free Patriotic Union 17
Popular Front 12
Afek Tounes 9
Democratic Current () 5
Congress for the Republic 4
Others 15

Among the others, the Republican Party, the Current of Love/People's Petition, and the main opposition from the Ben Ali era the Movement of Democratic Socialists all seem to have won 1 seat.

[Famous Mortimer]

Glad to see President Marzouki's party get annihilated. That's what a self proclaimed secularist gets for forming an alliance with the Islamists. It's a shame he didn't lose all his seats though. That's apparently what happened to the other coalition party, the Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties, unless they became this strange new Democratic Current party.

[MaxQue]

Glad to see President Marzouki's party get annihilated. That's what a self proclaimed secularist gets for forming an alliance with the Islamists. It's a shame he didn't lose all his seats though. That's apparently what happened to the other coalition party, the Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties, unless they became this strange new Democratic Current party.

Democratic Current seems to be the party of Mohamed Abbou, former General Secretary of the Congress for the Republic. Seems to be a boring opposition party, but with quirks. They want to create a federal state uniting the "arab nations freed from dictature". Also, the usual things about being opposed to corruption and for for a state of law. They oppose wide governments, too, they want a clear government and a clear opposition. He seems notable for mostly claiming the same ideas and same program since he entered politics.

All sources are in French, too, which isn't surprising.

[Famous Mortimer]

Secularists have a majority but they may have a hard time forming a government as their camp includes both Hoxhaists and Berlusconi types.

[Foucaulf]

How is the turnout defined in this case? Is it the percentage of registred voters that voted, or is it the fraction of all people that could register to vote and did actually vote?

Percentage of registered voters, which I think ended up being half of all citizens and expatriates. I need to find some solid figures eventually.

The electoral agency, ISIE, has been periodically releasing regional counts, or by governorate. Some indicative results are below:

Tataouine, the largest and southernmost governorate. Rural and covered by the Northern Sahara, it is as divorced from Tunis as one can be. Unsurprisingly Ennahda won 65.4% of all votes, followed by Nidaa Tounes at 7.7%.

Northern France, including mostly Paris and its environs. Nidaa won 39.5% to Ennahda's 29.6%, followed by Afek Tounes at 5.8%

Monastir, in central Tunisia and has as its capital the birthplace of Habib Bourgiba. Nidaa won 56% to Ennahda's 20%, with no other party scoring above 5%.

Kasserine, centred around the largest western Tunisian city with a history of revolt against the central government (in 1984, 2011 and 2013 at least). But it is also the governorate with the Chaambi mountains, which serves as a terrorist hideout and has seen persistent military intervention. Nidaa wins against Ennahda 27-22, with the Popular Front in third at 4.4%

Nabeul 1, one of two ridings for Nabeul governorate, comprising Tunisia's northern peninsula and the country's principal tourism destination. Historically a leader in the nationalist movement, this district went for Nidaa by 50%. Ennahda is at 20%, followed by Afek Tounes and the UPL. Preliminary results from Nabeul 2 shows similar trends.

Expect Ennahda to continue winning the southern interior and Nidaa to take over Tunis and the coast.  It looks like Nidaa is winning the Northern interior, though Tunis's surrounding areas and Sidi Bouzid are still question marks.


EDIT: Ennahda wins Sfax 1, centred around Tunisia's industrial capital, 36-31 Nidaa. Just to its south, Ennahda wins Gabes 50-17.

[Foucaulf]

Official counts have finally been provided for the entire country, though only a seat count so far. They are as below:

Nidaa Tounes: 85 seats
Ennahda: 69 seats
Free Patrotic Union: 16 seats
Popular Front: 15 seats
Afek Tounes: 8 seats
Congress for the Republic: 4 seats
Democratic Current/People's Movement/The Initiative: 3 seats
Current of Love: 2 seats
Others: 9 seats

Some gloss, minus the big two:
FPU is a party ran by Tunisian mogul Slim Riahi, whose considerable oil wealth led to a expansive campaign. Popular Front is an alliance of Tunisia's communist/pan-Arab parties. Afek Tounes is an economically liberal party that exists in the gray zone between young upstart and old regime benefactors. CPR is an opposition party centred around its Southern leader, Marzouki. Democratic Current is a less Islamist-friendly splinter of the CPR, and People's Movement is a more Islamist-friendly leftist party. Initiative (Moubadara) is literally filled with RCD apparatchiks. Current of Love is Tunisian media boss Hachmi Hamdi's now-imploded party.

Nidaa Tounes, Popular Front and Afek Tounes agreed to a vote-sharing pact of sorts, and is barely short of a majority on their own. Ennahda, for a while now, has proposed a "grand coalition" between it and Nidaa, whose first big test is whether it can agree on the grand coalition or scrounge up a few more deputies to support its government.

[Foucaulf]

Here's a map I made of the results: be warned that some vote figures are preliminary or even conjectural. Blank map credited to a Wikipedia editor.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm surprised Hoxhaists would agree to a coalition with bourgeoisie parties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where did FDTL/Ettakatol go? And the PDP? It looks like many parties have either collapsed or changed names since 2011...

[swl]

I'm surprised Hoxhaists would agree to a coalition with bourgeoisie parties.

It all depends on what dimension they consider the most important. They were working together in the National Salvation Front, but of course working together in the opposition is easier than working together in the government.

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised Hoxhaists would agree to a coalition with bourgeoisie parties.

It all depends on what dimension they consider the most important. They were working together in the National Salvation Front, but of course working together in the opposition is easier than working together in the government.

What the the Hoxhaist position on religion?

[swl]

First I don't know whether "hoxhaist" is appropriate for the Popular Front. They are a broad coalition of left-wing parties, and like often with the left you have all kind of small parties who pretend to be totally different from each other. On religion, they are secular, at different degrees.

So far the secular-islamist dimension was more important than the classic left-right dimension.

However this is bound to change because the country was until now focused on building a political system and on the big questions that come with it, rather than on every day life issues. My opinion is that now that they have a constitution, a political system, the task is almost complete, and politics will inevitably turn to more practical issues, also because the lower classes have grown impatient, and there is a risk that things turn ugly again.
Is it going to change right now, or in some time, we will see.

[Foucaulf]

I'm surprised Hoxhaists would agree to a coalition with bourgeoisie parties.

I don't care to know where you get your sources, but this label is inaccurate. The "Hoxhaist" you refer to is Hamma Hammami, leader of the Worker's Party and leader of the Popular Front, and he's a Hoxhaist only in the sense of Hoxha being another communist leader wanting to eliminate Islamic influence in society. The Tunisian far-left is best characterized by their fierce secularism, eccentric pan-Arabism and their recent opposition to the RCD government. In that sense they don't act very differently from other organizers and activists in the interior, some of whom were elected as well.

So far the secular-islamist dimension was more important than the classic left-right dimension.

I talked with some people on IRC last night about this strange "secular-Islamist" framework all Arab elections are now being put into. If there had to be one key issue in this election, it was law and order; Tunisian media has sounded the alarm of domestic terrorists since last summer. Other divides are regional ones between the coast, the interior and the south, or economic collapse in certain communities due to social unrest.

Egypt, at least, had a "military-Islamist" narrative that's more subtle and more fitting. It should be applied similarly to Tunisia.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm surprised Hoxhaists would agree to a coalition with bourgeoisie parties.

I don't care to know where you get your sources, but this label is inaccurate. The "Hoxhaist" you refer to is Hamma Hammami, leader of the Worker's Party and leader of the Popular Front, and he's a Hoxhaist only in the sense of Hoxha being another communist leader wanting to eliminate Islamic influence in society.

and in a sense that his party was a member of the International Conference of Marxist–Leninist Parties and Organizations (Unity & Struggle).

I wasn't using it as a slur.