Virginia-Roanoke College: Hillary leads by mindblowing margins

[eric82oslo]

Roanoke has tested Hillary against Republicans in the state one might think of as "the new Ohio", Virginia, for the 3rd time. They've all had Hillary far, far ahead of her opponents. This one is no exception:

Hillary vs Christie: D +10% (47-37)
Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +13% (50-37)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +16% (51-35)

Writes Roanoke: "Clinton has widened her lead over both Paul and Ryan, but the Christie margin is unchanged. The July RC Poll included registered voters, but did not screen for likely voters, so the results may not be directly comparable. "

http://roanoke.edu/A-Z_Index/Institute_for_Policy_and_Opinion_Research/Recent_News_Releases/RC_Poll_Election_Sept_2014.htm

[Tender Branson]

=> Roajoke Poll ("Romney wins VA by 5").

[Maxwell]

Roanoke is just a terrible pollster all around, they had McAullife up by some crazy margin when he won by 2.

[IceSpear]

>Roanoke
>2014 likely voters

[H. Ross Peron]

Considering Hillary stands to retain all of Obama's traditional demographics plus some working-class whites, this isn't surprising.

[Devils30]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

[DS0816]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

[JRP1994]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

[KCDem]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

So there isn't one...

[spacecoyote]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

So there isn't one...

CO seems to be the most likely of these. Maybe OH is doable for the right GOP nominee. The rest are an uphill battle for the GOP.

can-democrats-turn-texas-and-arizona-blue-by-2016 on fivethrityeight.com (can't post links yet)

Demographics suggest that FL will be 3 pts easier for Hillary and NV will be 4 pts. easier. I noticed you left of NV. I think NV is off the table for the GOP.

Maybe in the long term WI and PA become fertile ground for the GOP but not in 2016.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

So there isn't one...

CO seems to be the most likely of these. Maybe OH is doable for the right GOP nominee. The rest are an uphill battle for the GOP.

can-democrats-turn-texas-and-arizona-blue-by-2016 on fivethrityeight.com (can't post links yet)

Demographics suggest that FL will be 3 pts easier for Hillary and NV will be 4 pts. easier. I noticed you left of NV. I think NV is off the table for the GOP.

Maybe in the long term WI and PA become fertile ground for the GOP but not in 2016.

This is a hypothetical 277 - 261 win for the GOP, with Virginia and Colorado continuing the D trend while Ohio and Pennsylvania go R; all are very close. You can trade NH for Iowa and still get a GOP win.

[IceSpear]

The problem for the GOP is that critical states where Hillary is a better fit than Obama (PA, OH, FL) are far more valuable than critical states where Obama was the better fit (IA, CO, NH). The first three are worth 68 electoral votes as opposed to the latter's 19.

[DrScholl]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

Three of those have PVIs more Democratic than Virginia. If Virginia failed to go Republican, those three probably would not flip. Bottom line, there is no Republican win without Virginia, it's a must win.

[pbrower2a]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

The GOP "brand" is tainted in Presidential politics. Except that the GOP was successful in gerrymandering states' congressional districts to create a permanent GOP majority in 2011, the Republicans would have lost the House in 2012.

The Republican Party needs to change its message to cease offending the sorts of people who might have voted for republicans in the past. Sure, it can get inordinate representation by achieving monolithic power where it has reliable majorities and splintering power where it has no such majority, but with such it is likely to be seen as an increasingly-intolerant and untrustworthy organization. 

 

[pbrower2a]

I stand corrected. Cheating.

http://www.270towin.com/alternative-electoral-college-allocation-methods/

Here is one of the most unfair ways possible, one in which Republicans split the electoral vote where the Democrats do not have a majority*, and use winner-take-all where they have majorities in place:

http://www.270towin.com/alternative-electoral-college-allocation-methods/

The state's winner gets the first number in any split. There are no ties.



Romney won the state or district on a WTA or district basis
Romney would have won the majority under an allocation of a majority of districts
Obama would have won a majority under the most R-friendly distribution
Obama would have won all electoral votes on any basis


Florida goes 18 Romney, 11 Obama -- in case such is hard to see.
New Jersey goes 10 Obama, 4 Romney, likewise.
Massachusetts goes 8 Obama, 3 Romney.
California goes 34 Obama, 20 Romney, 1 G. Johnson.
Connecticut goes 5 Obama, 2 Romney.
*Gary Johnson, Libertarian, gets one electoral vote in California but nowhere else -- and is not shown in any other state.

Obama  (R) 220
Romney (R) 358
Johnson (L) 1

...Just think of all the people would would be complaining "I did not vote for that fool in the White House" in the event of an economic meltdown, a diplomatic or military debacle, or some profoundly-unpopular legislation.

Now, rigging things the opposite way:

Romney wins all electoral votes anyway
Obama picks up only one electoral vote 
Obama picks up 2 or 3 electoral votes
Obama picks up 4 electoral votes
Obama picks up 6 electoral votes
Obama picks up 15 electoral votes (Texas only)
Obama won the state in reality and would not have lost anything

Obama  (R) 383
Romney (R) 155

Maybe not so polarized. It's 384-154 if  Nebraska apportions its votes aside from the two statewide votes are allocated in proportion to the vote. Barack Obama won an absolute majority of the vote any way and got a distorted result in the Electoral College because he generally won most of 'his' states by smaller margins than he lost in those that he lost.


*The statewide winner gets the two electoral votes that could not be assigned to the districts. Votes for third-party and independent nominees who cannot get enough to win a proportion of the total vote as a fraction of the of the two votes are then ignored.  Votes are allotted so that the loser gets enough of the other electoral votes to get a full share of the total vote for the proportion for the total vote. All other electoral votes go to the winner. Thus if the Republican wins 47.8% of the popular vote in Washington State after independent and third-party candidates are ignored, he gets four electoral votes from Washington if the State's vote is allocated.

[Never]

Just going by Virginia's current trends it could be similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in terms of PVI. The GOP in the future needs a path without Virginia.

There isn't one.

FL + OH + CO + IA + NH

The GOP "brand" is tainted in Presidential politics. Except that the GOP was successful in gerrymandering states' congressional districts to create a permanent GOP majority in 2011, the Republicans would have lost the House in 2012.

The Republican Party needs to change its message to cease offending the sorts of people who might have voted for republicans in the past. Sure, it can get inordinate representation by achieving monolithic power where it has reliable majorities and splintering power where it has no such majority, but with such it is likely to be seen as an increasingly-intolerant and untrustworthy organization. 

 

I wouldn't say that's fully accurate. While Republicans having control of redistricting in many states after the 2010 midterms allowed the party to have a stronger position in the House of Representatives compared to the Democrats leading up to the 2012 elections, it seems that even if no gerrymandering had occurred after the midterms, Democrats still wouldn't have enough House seats for control.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/17/redistricting-didnt-win-republicans-the-house/