AZ Sen 2016: How will McCain fare if he runs for sixth term?
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  AZ Sen 2016: How will McCain fare if he runs for sixth term?
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Question: How will McCain do in 2016 if he runs for re-election?
#1
Lose in Republican primary
 
#2
Win Republican re-nomination, but lose in general
 
#3
Win re-election in November 2016
 
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Author Topic: AZ Sen 2016: How will McCain fare if he runs for sixth term?  (Read 1152 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: September 25, 2014, 08:53:18 AM »

Apparently, Arizona's John McCain may run for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. If he runs for re-election, how do you see him faring in 2016?

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/218821-mccain-gets-ready-for-race-of-his-life
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 11:15:02 AM »

I would still expect him to win, but by the smallest margin he ever received.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2014, 11:15:27 AM »

Lose in a Republican Primary
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2014, 11:18:03 AM »

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2014, 12:25:22 PM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2014, 12:39:43 PM »

Likely R
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2014, 12:51:16 PM »

Lose in the primary. He would have lost the primary in 2010 had he faced a more credible challenger.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2014, 01:07:01 PM »

He'd probably get the nomination, and he'd  win in the general without too much trouble. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2014, 01:50:01 PM »

He has a lot of Democratic and independent support, so either he will win the Republican primary outright, or he will run as an independent and then win easily. No far right candidate has any possibility to win a Senate race in Arizona as long as the Democratic party continues to field moderate, centrist high quality candidates in my opinion. Arizona is definitely not Texas. Ted Cruz for instance would have been pretty chanceless against a centrist Democrat in Arizona. Even their centrist Republicans just barely win Senate races there (and Democrats control a majority of Arizona's House delegation, despite a very low turnout from Hispanics).
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2014, 02:41:37 PM »


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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2014, 02:54:43 PM »

He'll break my heart Sad

But it would be wrong if he were to leave any way other than fighting.
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Vega
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2014, 02:57:15 PM »

He'd win the primary by a similar margin that Cochran did in the run-off in Mississippi.
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SWE
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2014, 03:22:53 PM »

If, by some miracle he did win his primary, he'd just lose the general.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2014, 03:34:18 PM »

If, by some miracle he did win his primary, he'd just lose the general.

You mean just like Joe Lieberman lost the general? At least McCain has some general appeal and charisma, even to Democratic voters, in very sharp contrast to the totally and completely uncharismatic Lieberman.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2014, 03:47:19 PM »

McCain loses the primary to either David Schweiker or John Shadegg, or even Trent Franks, Matt Salmon or Ben Quayle. McCain would probably beat Ken Bennett, though.

Even if McCain wins the primary, he has a very tough general election. Particularly if a star candidate like Mark Kelly, Richard Carmona, or Gabrielle Giffords runs. Hell, I'd give Kyrsten Sinema or Phil Gordon a shot. McCain would easily defeat Napolitano though.

If McCain doesn't run, Martha McSally would be highly sought after, and Brewer would at least consider it (I doubt she would run against McCain though.) Former AG Grant Woods is basically D.O.A. in a Republican primary, but he would basically sweep the General election with high 50s, low 60s.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2014, 05:43:18 PM »

I have a hard time seeing Shadegg (who is rather old now no?), Salmon or Schweikert running against McCain in a primary. Now if he retired, Salmon, Schweitkert and probably Franks seem likely to run or at least did the last time I checked the situation.

I think McCain wins the primary and the general election if he runs based on what happened this year.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2014, 05:47:57 PM »

If, by some miracle he did win his primary, he'd just lose the general.

This. McCain is extremely unpopular with everyone, and I'd be surprised if he ran for another term.
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2014, 05:51:05 PM »

He'll barely win nomination in the primary, and wins reelection.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2014, 05:54:17 PM »

If, by some miracle he did win his primary, he'd just lose the general.

This. McCain is extremely unpopular with everyone, and I'd be surprised if he ran for another term.

Never underestimate a maverick. That's what everyone did during 2007 and 2008, which made the eventual results all the more shocking, when every single pundit throughout America had already pronounced him dead and in the grave (and his overall campaign in even worse state). I do agree though that he has lost some of his edge, and moved further to the right (including some surprising and unreasonable shots at Obama which we didn't see between 2009 and 2012, but which have emerged these past two years, making him look much more partisan and cynical). And making him seem more grumpy and unreliable than what we've been used to. Maybe it's just the Fox News syndrome? Or it might be his bad acquaintances in the Senate.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2014, 06:34:25 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2014, 06:43:56 PM by CrabCake »

It is worth considering that the Tea Party's much vaunted "Primary ALL the RINO's" strategy, has utterly fizzled out this year, with pretty much every establishment candidate winning. Obviously, McCain is a much more tempting target than a backbench anonymous Tennessee senator due to his status; but some people thought that McCain's buddy Graham would be a goner this cycle and he sailed to reelection.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2014, 06:39:03 PM »

It is worth considering that the Tea Party's much vaunted "Primary ALL the RINO's" strategy, has utterly fizzled out this year, with pretty much every establishment candidate winning. Obviously, McCain is a much more tempting target than a backbench anonymous Tennessee senator due to his status; but some people thought that McCain's buddy Graham would be a goner this cycle.

Graham is entirely the reason for my skepticism in this regard.

I hope he retires.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2014, 06:49:16 PM »

It is worth considering that the Tea Party's much vaunted "Primary ALL the RINO's" strategy, has utterly fizzled out this year, with pretty much every establishment candidate winning. Obviously, McCain is a much more tempting target than a backbench anonymous Tennessee senator due to his status; but some people thought that McCain's buddy Graham would be a goner this cycle.

Graham is entirely the reason for my skepticism in this regard.

I hope he retires and Salmon replaces him.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2014, 06:50:59 PM »

Yea, Salmon is my preferred replacement as well.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2014, 07:34:39 PM »

Why Salmon? Didn't Salmon lose against Napolitano in 2002?
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KCDem
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2014, 09:08:13 PM »

Either in the primary or in the general, John McCain will lose.
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