Which states do the GOP pickup (updated)?

[Free Bird]

Besides the obvious pickups of SD, WV, and MT. Reinstated because of new polls.

[SPC]

Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and since I am feeling optimistic today, Iowa and Colorado.

[Gass3268]

Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

[7,052,770]

Not that I would have picked it, but no NOTA option? That's at least a plausible outcome...

[Free Bird]

Not that I would have picked it, but no NOTA option? That's at least a plausible outcome...

If you're delusional. Barring a massive swing of Democratmentum and every nominee pulling a Mourdock, they WILL get at least one of these.

[Njall]

At this point, I'd say Arkansas and Louisiana

[Consciously Unconscious]

I think they'll win Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana.  I put Colorado and Iowa as well, but I still think they're tossups. 

[Torie]

Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana and Iowa.

[backtored]

Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana and maybe Colorado, although I'm less confident about it than about the first three.  I am exactly 50/50 on Iowa, although if I had to say where it ends up I'd probably give Ernst the edge.  North Carolina will be a lot closer than people seem to think, but it likely favors Hagan

[The Other Castro]

Arkansas, Louisiana, probably Alaska
I think more likely than not, Iowa and Colorado both stay D at the end of the day

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Arkansas and Louisiana, 50/50 shot on Alaska.

[RogueBeaver]

AK/AR/LA

[Vega]

AK/AR/LA for GOP control of the Senate.

[SWE]

AK/AR/LA

[ElectionsGuy]

Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

[Maxwell]

Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Colorado

Iowa is too far out of reach, North Carolina has Tillis as waaay too unpopular, and Michigan and New Hampshire are states where Republicans have run joke candidates in potentially competitive races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For now Alaska and ARK

[TDAS04]

Arkansas and Louisiana, 50/50 shot on Alaska.

[Del Tachi]

Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and one of Coloardo/North Carolina

[7,052,770]

Not that I would have picked it, but no NOTA option? That's at least a plausible outcome...

If you're delusional. Barring a massive swing of Democratmentum and every nominee pulling a Mourdock, they WILL get at least one of these.

Agreed, but you should have included it as an option -- By 538 odds, Republicans have right under a 0.5% of clean sweeping all 7 of these races. Your poll allows us to pick all 7 races as Republican wins. On the other hand, Democrats have a 0.3% chance of sweeping all 7, but your poll does not allow us to predict that outcome.

The two probabilities are virtually indistinguishable. Doesn't it make sense to make both options available as a poll choice if 1 of them is?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Arkansas and Louisiana. I believe (irrationally) that Begich will hold on though.

[ShadowRocket]

Voted AK/AR/LA. MI and NH should be easy Democratic victories, and Udall and Hagan will squeak out victories. Iowa could go either way, but Braley is probably favored.

[Free Bird]

Arkansas and Louisiana. I believe (irrationally) that Begich will hold on though.

Well, at least you admit it's irrational 😌

[Bigby]

Most likely Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Iowa is also likely, but not as likely as the other three. If current trends continue, Colorado may very well go Republican. There might be some chance with Michigan and/or New Hampshire, but I think it isn't as likely. North Carolina seems to be lost.

[Free Bird]

Most likely Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Iowa is also likely, but not as likely as the other three. If current trends continue, Colorado may very well go Republican. There might be some chance with Michigan and/or New Hampshire, but I think it isn't as likely. North Carolina seems to be lost.

By god you just summarized my thoughts