But just because this electoral-type event is meaningless doesn't mean things won't be interesting. Question number one is who becomes Prime Minister. Hailemariam Dessalegn was not intended to stay on past the elections, which was agreed upon by the party following Meles' death.
Hailemariam is a Wolayta, a small ethnic group from the south (and thus belongs to the SEPDM). Meles, of course, was Tigrayan, TPLF, the folks who have been running the show for the past 23 years, etc, etc, we all know this.
So who are the contenders? Hint: they are TPLF members. I'll refer
to this analysis, which seems objective (a rather significant problem with trying to follow Ethiopian politics, considering it's obviously not on the news there and 95% of the things on the Internet are nonsense) and in conformity with what I have read.
The question is how balanced will the choice be between TPLF's internal decisions and the decision of the other parties to reject or approve whoever they support. Abay Woldu may have the support of Azeb Mesfin, but the thing is also that no one
likes Azeb Mesfin, who famously refused to vacate the Grand Palace for months following Meles' death, and once was seen on TV wailing about how Meles never had a bank account. Her (alleged) attempt to become mayor of Addis Ababa in 2014 was rebuffed by the Party (and for the better, as it would have likely provoked riots). She seems to have been made to resign from a few offices.
Abay Woldu is also perhaps...
too Tigrayan. The fact that he is the Region's president would likely the other parties to balk. The fact that a non-TPLF member was selected as Meles' successor would, at least strongly suggest that the TPLF cannot unilaterally impose a leader without the consent of the other parties.
It must also be considered that the military is considerably less overwhelmingly Tigrayan than it was under Meles. Comparing the composition of the army in 1996 and 2011, the share Tigrayans of has fallen from 53% to 18.5%. Those from the Amhara Region now constitute a plurality, with 30.3% , up from 25% in 1996. Oromos account for 25%, up 21.3% of 1996 figures,
which I quote from Capital, which is a "liberal" magazine that seems to try to be as objective as possible (which takes considerable effort).
Then there is Debretsion Gebremichael, who is at present Minister of ICT. This makes him responsible for Ethiopia Telecom, which is abysmal, and, quite interestingly, Parliament has
not shied away from calling him out on this. It would thus seem unlikely that the other parties would be keen on making him Prime Minister.
But Debretsion is said to also possess considerable influence over the state security and intelligence apparati; the analysis sheet says he "he chairs the joint security commission", virtually none of this can be confirmed, however. Indeed, some sources will name him quite plainly as the "power behind the throne". But if such speculation is even partially true it would give him considerable influence, quite possibly enough to put him on top of the pole.
Finally we have Tedros Adhanom, presently Foreign Minister. I will disclose I quite like him, and I'd gather why I do is also much of the reason he's a contender. He was previously Minister of Health, and in that office he earned much recognition for the undeniably remarkable progress made in the realm of public health under his tenure. HIV infections fell 90%, malaria deaths were halved, child mortality fell by a third. Ethiopia is generally regarded as an MDG "success story", for those and other reasons.
As Foreign Minister he has been able to frustrate Egyptian attempts to stop the construction of the Hidase Dam, even managing to have Sudan "flip" and declare its support for the dam. His conduct during the crisis surrounding the 100,000+ Ethiopians expelled from Saudi Arabia, sharply criticising Saudi conduct and taking several moves to accommodate the expellees, by all indications, was well-received by an outraged public; in contrast one spokesman for the government said at the time that relations remained "sisterly". He has a PhD from the University of Nottingham, he has a well-followed (by Ethiopian standards) Twitter account, he plays the electric guitar, is liked by Western diplomats, etc, etc.
It should be obvious if there was an actual election between the three- Tedros, Debretsion, and Abay- Tedros would win in a landslide. As he probably should. And if it were left to Washington, Tedros would also win. But that is not what is happening- remember we are talking about an "electoral-type event" here. He has
supposedly been chided for his openness and proactiveness during the Saudi expellees crisis. It might very well be that he is too good at what he does for his own good. One may hope that his competency would incline the others in OPDO and ANDM (SEPDM will certainly be plugging for the retention of Hailemariam) to favour his selection.
We will see. But we actually won't, unless considerable effort is expended.
