Who is the most endangered incumbent?

[JRP1994]

What do you think?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Landrieu because of the runoff in my opinion.

Pryor can win with a plurality with the Green and Libertarian in the race, that's why I'm going with Landrieu.

[eric82oslo]

Only three of these are extremely vulnerable. Right now I would rank them:

1. Pat Roberts (that national socialism pedriatric who even high ranking Republican officials loath publically)
2. Mark Pryor (who just doesn't have the IQ to serve in the Senate)
3. Mary Landrieu (at this point she definitely needs a game changer in order to survive)

Although I personally would wish McConnell was at least top two, as he's seriously the most despicable high profile Republican politician since Cheney and W.

[Vega]

Pryor for sure.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pryor for sure.

[SWE]

Landrieu, easily. All of the others have at least some chance of winning.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Pryor for sure.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

2. Mark Pryor (who just doesn't have the IQ to serve in the Senate)

Sadly, this is true.

3. Mary Landrieu (at this point she definitely needs a game changer in order to survive)

TAILGATE-GATE!!!!

[Maxwell]

Pryor is dead in the water. Pat Roberts, Mary Landrieu, and (sad to say) Mark Begich are runner-ups. Begich has run a great campaign, but it's starting to look like that may not be enough to save himself.

[Bacon King]

I maintain my irrational hunch that Landrieu will hang on, so I'm going with Pryor

[Skill and Chance]

Landrieu>Begich>Pryor>Roberts>Udall>Hagan>Shaheen

As of today, I think everyone up to Roberts will lose.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I maintain my irrational hunch that Landrieu will hang on, so I'm going with Pryor

[Never]

In order from most endangered to least:

1. Pryor
2. Landrieu
3. Roberts
4. Begich
5. Udall
6. Hagan
7. McConnell
8. Shaheen
9. Franken

[The Other Castro]

In order from most endangered to least:

1. Pryor
2. Landrieu
3. Roberts
4. Begich
5. Udall
6. Hagan
7. McConnell
8. Shaheen
9. Franken

Switch Begich and Roberts and I agree completely.

[Flake]

I maintain my irrational hunch that Landrieu will hang on, so I'm going with Pryor

[dmmidmi]

I maintain my irrational hunch that Landrieu will hang on, so I'm going with Pryor

[TDAS04]

Pryor, followed Landrieu and Roberts.

[KCDem]

Obviously Pat Roberts.

[Mogrovejo]

I'm surprised that Begich ranks so low. In my view he's always been the most endangered incumbent (sans Walsh). Always seemed to me he only had two paths to victory: one through Miller winning the Republican primary; the other by winning with a plurality on the back of strong showing by third party candidates. Miller lost (and endorsed Sullivan); the LP and the IP nominated two underfunded some dudes so I don't think there's a plausible scenario where Begich comes out in front (customary LBDG caveats)

He only won by the smallest of margins in 2008, a very democratic year, while facing an opponent who became a convicted criminal in the course of the campaign and had both presidential candidates, both party senate leaders and the very popular state governor calling him to step down and retire from politics. He benefited a lot from Palin's favourite daughter effect as a bunch of low turnout voters (by definition not particularly partisan) went to the voting booths: many of those had never voted for Stevens (or anyone else) and mostly saw an old, corrupt, incumbent opposed by both party leaders vs a sunny Begich. Since then, his approvals were always tepid at best and have been underwater for awhile, with his favs generally lingering in the low 40s. He'll need to convince reliable Republican voters who disapprove of his and Obama's job performance to cross-over and vote for him. Heck, as I'm fairly sure that Stevens would have won with this year's turnout, Begich will need the votes of people who voted for McCain and Romney, who almost always vote Republican, who disapprove of a bunch of policies he supported, who voted for a convicted criminal over him and who view his job and his national party unfavourably to vote for him. Who are these voters going to be? Very few - he'd need to turn Sullivan into a repulsive choice and I see no signs he's doing that (or that it's even possible). Therefore he's toast. The guys in the South have legacy votes, higher seniority, some residual infrastructure in the Dem turf. Begich has the kind of stuff that brings him to an above average score for a Dem in AK but nothing to catapult him to a victory in a race vs a generic GOPer.

PS - FWIW, Begich lead in a single LV poll the entire race (from March till last week): the YouGov first poll in July  (at the peak of an acrimonious Republican primary). I suspect there won't be a second one till election day.