So what the hell is going on in Colorado?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any possible reason why Gardner may have suddenly turned the tide? A really good ad, a Udall scandal, a debate victory, or what? I don't get it.

[KCDem]

Bad polls.

[Free Bird]

Udall's ad kick ended. Now it is Gardner's turn. And KC, don't go suddenly denying yuh PPP and Quin. You're taking poll denial out of the GOP 2012 handbook

[Gass3268]

It appears that Gardner has consolidated his base before Udall has. Most undecideds voted for Obama, are somewhat liberal/moderate and are between 18-29. Udall needs to make sure those folks come out to vote for him.

[Nhoj]

Well I dont think its the reason, he does actually have a rather good ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdLNIGv50WQ

[Maxwell]

Well I dont think its the reason, he does actually have a rather good ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdLNIGv50WQ

Yea Cory Gardner has been running a very solid campaign. Udall has just been running against Gardner's abortion record in Congress.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Weed-induced psychosis and an inability to separate vivid dreams from real-life experience.

[KCDem]

Udall's ad kick ended. Now it is Gardner's turn. And KC, don't go suddenly denying yuh PPP and Quin. You're taking poll denial out of the GOP 2012 handbook

I'm not denying anything. This is margin of error movement. The fact of the matter is that 10 point poll swings don't happen in a matter of two weeks without significant externalities. There have been none and Udall will win easily.

[Vega]

Udall's ad kick ended. Now it is Gardner's turn. And KC, don't go suddenly denying yuh PPP and Quin. You're taking poll denial out of the GOP 2012 handbook

I'm not denying anything. This is margin of error movement. The fact of the matter is that 10 point poll swings don't happen in a matter of two weeks without significant externalities. There have been none and Udall will win easily.

But you kinda are. Gardner went from trailing to now leading, even if it's in the MOE.

[backtored]

The race has been basically tied since April.  Now the electorate is looking even more conservative as voters screens are set and the undecideds are coming home to Gardner, as usually happens after Labor Day when the incumbent is running in a poor political environment. Pretty much the same thing happening in Arkansas and Alaska.

The big picture is a massively unpopular Democratic Party in Colorado, which has a lot to do with Obama and the state legislature.  The latter is the same dynamic working against Tillis in North Carolina.  Democrats are really in trouble in Colorado up and down the ballot.  Simply being a Democrat and having the whole "vote with Obama 99% of the time" lassoed around him may be enough to take him down.

[backtored]

Well I dont think its the reason, he does actually have a rather good ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdLNIGv50WQ

Democrats have been having a cow about that ad because they seem to think that Gardner is attacking Udall's family.  The fact that they're trying to drum up controversy over this is actually fairly indicative of how uncomfortable they are with where this race is at.  Udall's campaign has spent gazillions of dollars trying to widen the gender gap and drag down Gardner's favorability.  The fact that the needle has barely moved has got to be really worrying them.  Now Gardner is starting to catch up in ad spending, which, as Nate Silver notes, could make him the favorite.

[DrScholl]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

[SPC]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

Throughout September, the only poll showing Romney ahead in Colorado was Rasmussen. True, many firms in October showed Romney statistically tied, but almost all of those were Republican-affiliated polls. Excluding Rasmussen and Republican firms, Obama was ahead by ~4 points in Colorado polls, not significantly far off from the final margin of ~5 points.

[GaussLaw]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September). 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

[Free Bird]

Where does this whole "Democrats close well" thing come from? Buck? He was just as much of a loon as Angle, and you didn't see Heller or Sandoval suddenly lose out of nowhere, nor does that stigma exist AT ALL in Nevada. It is about the candidate, and Gardner is a fantastic candidate. Is he up 6? No. Is it conceivable that he is up about 2? Sure.

[DrScholl]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

[Free Bird]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

Because Buck was a loon. Angle lost in the same fashion, and you don't see the Nevada Republican Party be demoralized like nothing else by this forum. Gardner is a good candidate, Buck wasn't.

[DrScholl]

Where does this whole "Democrats close well" thing come from? Buck? He was just as much of a loon as Angle, and you didn't see Heller or Sandoval suddenly lose out of nowhere, nor does that stigma exist AT ALL in Nevada. It is about the candidate, and Gardner is a fantastic candidate. Is he up 6? No. Is it conceivable that he is up about 2? Sure.

Sandoval was always up by a large amount in Nevada and Berkley struggled throughout the campaign, even Democratic internals were not great for her. Gardner is as right-wing as Buck and has flip-flopped on personhood, which will matter in the end.

[SPC]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

One error within the margin of error is enough for you to assume some unique polling phenomenon must occur in Colorado to the benefit of Democratic candidates? Buck's lead (1%) was within the margin of error of the poll, so his loss does not lend credence to this novel theory, given that such an event both a) would be expected to occur one out of four times and b) was not replicated in either 2008 or 2012.

[5280]

Look at the 1998 governor election map in Colorado.  Guarantee it will be somewhat similar, opposite of 2010 senator race results.

Owens: 49.06%
Schoettler 48.43%

[DrScholl]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

One error within the margin of error is enough for you to assume some unique polling phenomenon must occur in Colorado to the benefit of Democratic candidates? Buck's lead (1%) was within the margin of error of the poll, so his loss does not lend credence to this novel theory, given that such an event both a) would be expected to occur one out of four times and b) was not replicated in either 2008 or 2012.

Calm down. My point is, Udall can still win this, even if the last poll showed him down two, since that is hardly out of reach. Independents are tied in the last poll and Gardner would have to do a lot better than that to win outright, especially when there are still undecided Democrats.

As someone who volunteers for campaigns, there are lots of Democrats who don't decide until the last minute and in blue leaning states, that can make the difference.

[SPC]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

One error within the margin of error is enough for you to assume some unique polling phenomenon must occur in Colorado to the benefit of Democratic candidates? Buck's lead (1%) was within the margin of error of the poll, so his loss does not lend credence to this novel theory, given that such an event both a) would be expected to occur one out of four times and b) was not replicated in either 2008 or 2012.

Calm down. My point is, Udall can still win this, even if the last poll showed him down two, since that is hardly out of reach. Independents are tied in the last poll and Gardner would have to do a lot better than that to win outright, especially when there are still undecided Democrats.

As someone who volunteers for campaigns, there are lots of Democrats who don't decide until the last minute and in blue leaning states, that can make the difference.

I was not objecting to the belief that Udall can win as much as the amount of certainty you have in such an outcome. 

[Never]

Well I dont think its the reason, he does actually have a rather good ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdLNIGv50WQ

Yea Cory Gardner has been running a very solid campaign. Udall has just been running against Gardner's abortion record in Congress.

[IceSpear]

Where does this whole "Democrats close well" thing come from? Buck? He was just as much of a loon as Angle, and you didn't see Heller or Sandoval suddenly lose out of nowhere, nor does that stigma exist AT ALL in Nevada. It is about the candidate, and Gardner is a fantastic candidate. Is he up 6? No. Is it conceivable that he is up about 2? Sure.

While Heller didn't lose, he did come a lot closer to losing than the polls said he would. As for Buck, while he is the most notable case of Colorado Democrats overperforming the polls (because it actually changed the eventual victor), it's a notable trend regardless. Here's the data:

2004 RCP: Bush +5.2
2004 final margin: Bush +4.7
Bias: R+0.5

2004 RCP: Salazar +4.5
2004 final margin: Salazar +3.9
Bias: D+0.6

2006 RCP: Ritter +18.7
Final margin: Ritter +16.8
Bias: D+1.9

2008 RCP: Obama +5.5
Final margin: Obama +9.0
Bias: R+3.5

2008 RCP: Udall +12.5
Final margin: Udall +10.3
Bias: D+2.2

2010 RCP: Buck +3.0
Final margin: Bennet +0.9
Bias: R+3.9

2010 RCP: Hickenlooper +4.0
Final margin: Hickenlooper +14.6
Bias: R+10.4

2012 RCP: Obama +1.5
Final margin: Obama +5.4
Bias: R+3.9

Average Republican bias: 1.9 points

As you can see, the trend didn't really seem to exist in 2004/2006, so it's possible that the recent trend is just a coincidence. On the other hand, if you're only looking at the last two elections, the bias would be an enormous 6.1 points in favor of the Republican. Combine that with the fact that vote by mail would be neutral for Republicans at best and a major boost to Democrats at worst, Democrats definitely have good reason to be cautiously optimistic in Colorado.

[IceSpear]

And here's Nevada, since you mentioned that:

2004 RCP: Bush +6.3
Final margin: Bush +2.6
Bias: R+3.7

2006 RCP: Gibbons +4.0
Final margin:Gibbons +4.0
Bias: None

2008 RCP: Obama +6.5
Final margin: Obama +12.5
Bias: R+6.0

2010 RCP: Angle +2.7
Final margin: Reid +5.7
Bias: R+8.4

2010 RCP: Sandoval +16.7
Final margin: Sandoval +11.8
Bias: R+4.9

2012 RCP: Obama +2.8
Final margin: Obama +6.7
Bias: R+3.9

2012 RCP: Heller +4.0
Final margin: Heller +1.2
Bias: R+2.8

Average Republican bias = 4.2 points.

No comment needed here. Only in one race has there not been a significant Republican bias in Nevada polls in the past decade. If ever there was a state where "unskewing" is needed, Nevada is it.