UK General Discussion II

[Vega]

Miliband leadership "on the line" after two MPs make anonymous calls for him to go.

As Dugher's pointed out, maybe the party would be more worried if those two MPs defected to another party and took two safe seats with them. But the media.

Terrible news for Ed Miliband.

The fact they were "anonymous" shows the convictions of the MPs.

[Lumine]

I know that even with the current situation Milliband seems pretty much secured to lead Labor into the election, but is there any plausible scenario in which he could be ousted before May 2015?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To an extent that depends what you mean by ousted. If we're just talking of a hypothetical in which Miliband resigns for whatever reason then, of course, he could go at any moment. The process to elect a successor would take quite a while though (as an outgrowth of trade unionism Labour is nothing if not rules obsessed), probably several months. If we're talking a challenge then things take longer; the challenger must first collect enough signatures in order to get onto the ballot, and the bar is deliberately high.* Either way it's not like the old days when the Leader was elected at a meeting of the PLP. Media coverage of internal Labour issues often fails to reflect this (lending it a slightly surreal air at times), because very few political journalists have any serious working knowledge of Labour Party culture or the way that it operates...

_{*There's a historical reason for this: Tony Benn challenged Neil Kinnock for the leadership in 1988 on openly factional grounds and was overwhelmingly defeated. He then pledged that he would keep on doing so until he won (which by this point would have been on the first of never). The rules were changed to stop him in particular and to stop any candidate without a large, provable, and open base in the PLP from pulling the same trick.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My own view, no matter what exactly is going on, is that factionalism is essentially a chronic disease.

[Lumine]

I see. I meant being ousted Iain Duncan Smith style, but I still tend to confuse the differences in the method to choose party leaders (I understood the Conservative one, but I failed to research on Labour).

That's funny, I didn't know that Kinnock had actually been formally challenged by Benn, but that situation does explain why the system makes it hard to launch a leadership contest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(I understood the Conservative one, but I failed to research on Labour).

This makes you qualified to be a lobby journalist. Congratulations! You can start work on Monday.

[You kip if you want to...]

An "IDS-Howard" situation implies that enough in the party have already conceded we're not going to win. The PLP is obviously worried, but to the point where they think Labour's completely out the game? I don't think so.

And anyway, I personally don't think Burnham and Cooper have the network in the PLP to knock Ed off his pedestal yet.

If there becomes a feeling that there can be this bloody coup (which would inevitably bruise many who attached themselves to Team Ed (Chuka, Creigh, Reeves)) and Labour can still be unified and win afterwards, then maybe I can see it happening. But I don't think it could ever be done cleanly, so...

[Frodo]

If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.

I'd  think that both Labour and the SNP would prefer to have a coalition government rather than let a Conservative minority government take charge.

[Frodo]

If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.

I'd  think that both Labour and the SNP would prefer to have a coalition government rather than let a Conservative minority government take charge.

Scottish voters are angry enough with Labour that I doubt that would happen. 

[joevsimp]

If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.

Labour already hate the SNP, there are councils in Scotland where Labour and the Conservatives are allied to keep them out, although westminster would obviously be a different ballgame

for two reasons: withdrawing support for Jim Callaghan's ailing government in 1979 and for daring to challenge Labour's hegemony of the centre-right (see also Sadiq Khan's mission to destroy the Greens by May next year)

[Frodo]

Speaking of, YouGov finds that 6 weeks after the referendum, support for independence now sits at 52%.

Buyer's Remorse?  Though we did see polls showing support for independence approach parity until people actually started to vote....

[stepney]

From: the frontline of the People's Islamic Jamahiriya London Borough of Tower Hamlets.

So, This Happened (p94 of the BBC front page): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29895568 (typically mealy mouthed Beeb report)

In the words of the Fast Show, that was nice.

[You kip if you want to...]

If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.

Labour already hate the SNP, there are councils in Scotland where Labour and the Conservatives are allied to keep them out, although westminster would obviously be a different ballgame

for two reasons: withdrawing support for Jim Callaghan's ailing government in 1979 and for daring to challenge Labour's hegemony of the centre-right (see also Sadiq Khan's mission to destroy the Greens by May next year)

As many Labour people loved pointing out during the referendum campaign, the SNP aren't the left-wing heroes that they liked people to think they were. They'll do or say anything, whether it's left wing or right wing, just as long as it furthers the course of independence.

[You kip if you want to...]

Some escalation in The Observer (remember when they endorsed Nick Clegg for PM?) of the EdM story. Still no actual names of plotters or any of the 20 shadow ministers who apparently want him to go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not so much escalation as an attempt to keep the story running. It's seriously weak stuff though; almost surprisingly so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Warren Clarke died the other day; he was (as literally all British posters know) a great character actor - mostly but not entirely telly - with one hell of a range. One of his best performances was in Red Riding in which he was genuinely terrifying; a world away from the rather more avuncular roles he was best known for.

[afleitch]

The Tories starting to eke out small leads in a number of polls recently. I hope it can be sustained, but then the Tories often seem to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory on that front.

Having said that, I still think they will remain the largest party come the GE.

[TJ in Oregon]

What happens if no one gets close to a majority and the Lib Dems are far too small to push anyone over the top? Minority government? Is a grand coalition possible in the UK? Or would that make about as much sense as a grand coalition in the US?

[YL]

What happens if no one gets close to a majority and the Lib Dems are far too small to push anyone over the top? Minority government? Is a grand coalition possible in the UK? Or would that make about as much sense as a grand coalition in the US?

Well, if the SNP continue to do as well as they are doing at the moment we may well find out.

I think the two main parties are too used to treating each other as enemies for a grand coalition to be likely, and their bases would hate it, so I suspect we'd see a minority government of some sort.  (I don't think either Labour or the Tories will do a formal deal with the SNP, so a cobbled together "rainbow coalition" as briefly proposed after 2010 isn't likely either.)  The SNP will presumably abstain on issues which they don't think affect Scotland, so it might not be as unstable as all that; even so, the next election would be very likely to be before 2020.

The nightmare scenario is Con/UKIP/DUP.

[afleitch]

What happens if no one gets close to a majority and the Lib Dems are far too small to push anyone over the top? Minority government? Is a grand coalition possible in the UK? Or would that make about as much sense as a grand coalition in the US?

Well, if the SNP continue to do as well as they are doing at the moment we may well find out.

I think the two main parties are too used to treating each other as enemies for a grand coalition to be likely, and their bases would hate it, so I suspect we'd see a minority government of some sort.  (I don't think either Labour or the Tories will do a formal deal with the SNP, so a cobbled together "rainbow coalition" as briefly proposed after 2010 isn't likely either.)  The SNP will presumably abstain on issues which they don't think affect Scotland, so it might not be as unstable as all that; even so, the next election would be very likely to be before 2020.

The nightmare scenario is Con/UKIP/DUP.

A truly minority government can't happen simply because they won't have the number to get a Queen's Speech passed. If it's a minority by a few seats then it could be an effect 'majority' on the basis of Sinn Fein not taking up their seats, but if Labour and the Tories are both on say 280 something seats each, I fully expect there to be a second election. If the SNP hold the balance of power then they will argue for almost complete autonomy for Scotland to be passed asap. However, they already abstain at Westminster on issues that don't affect Scotland. If Scotland gets more devolution, then the SNP technically would have less of a presence. Labour or the Tories would need them to break recent habits and actually vote on UK wide legislation at least with respect to confidence motions, budgets etc. The SNP could therefore comfortably vote for draconian Tory legislation knowing that they need not do so at Holyrood. That would be a potentially difficult situation for them. Siding with Labour would be safer for them as it would blunt Labour's attack in 2016 at Holyrood, but would still safely allow the SNP to shaft Labour should they become deeply unpopular during the term.

Also, if the SNP are in coalition, would they take up ministerial posts? If Alex Salmond flirts with going back to Westminster and lead the bloc there, could he end up as Deputy PM? (no) The likelihood is that the SNP would take up no posts at all, but simply 'pass go' and collect new powers for Scotland. That would be ideal for the main partner in any coalition as it would effectively be a coalition in name only.

[afleitch]

On that note, Nicola Sturgeon has taken over as SNP leader today. Stewart Hosie, MP for Dundee East has been elected Deputy.

[bore]

I definitely don't expect the SNP to form a coalition government with either labour or the conservatives.

But, given the current constitutional setup with regard to the Barnett Formula, it's very easy to spin things like the budget and even big changes in the NHS as affecting Scotland, so there is at least a
potential argument that can be used. Whether the public would buy that is another story.

[Silent Hunter]

On that note, Nicola Sturgeon has taken over as SNP leader today. Stewart Hosie, MP for Dundee East has been elected Deputy.

When does she become First Minister?

[afleitch]

On that note, Nicola Sturgeon has taken over as SNP leader today. Stewart Hosie, MP for Dundee East has been elected Deputy.

When does she become First Minister?

Parliament has to vote her in, but it's a formality. Should be next week.