UK General Discussion II

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Now, if Labour conference didn't go well, I expect Tory conference to go even worse.

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Another Conservative MP, Mark Reckless, has defected to UKIP.

And to think I've just completed version 1.0 of my UK 2015 prediction... on topic, I've got Carswell holding Clacton for UKIP, can Reckless do the same in Rochester & Strood?

Probably not.

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All I can say about the last week is that the Tory whip's office must be in a constant state of heavy paranoia.

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Anyone here still genuinely think the Libs can finish third?

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ScotsRail has just been nationalised. By the Dutch government.

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The bookies' odds on Nick Clegg resigning before the GE have shortened considerably in recent hours.

They're not gonna get rid of him. Better to wait for the inevitable (their worst result since 1970, fourth place) and try a fight back after the election.

For a party on the verge of losing 70% of their 2010 vote, they're very calm. They think that they'll be in government again post-election, but I think it's a bit arrogant for them to not realise that such a deal would be toxic for Labour/the Tories (delete as appropriate) and so is increasingly unlikely to happen.

Labour, on the other hand, on the verge of being the first party since 1974 to do a 'one term return', aren't calm at all.

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I also wonder whether Labour has a strategy to squeeze the Greens who're at 4-5%.

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Survation for the MoS has a pretty terrifying 31-31-25-8.

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The LD held seats will probably be the most unpredictable, so it's hard to tell.

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Pandering to UKIP.

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http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/10/15/the-inside-story-of-the-labour-reshuffle-that-never-was/

Before Heywood, Miliband was planning to get Cooper and Balls to swap jobs.

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I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

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I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.

The irony of all this is that, back in 2010, part of the reason Ed's campaign got off the ground was exactly because he was supposed to be good at appealing to former-LD/Green/SNP types. He was meant to be the most capable of bringing those voters 'home'...

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I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.

The irony of all this is that, back in 2010, part of the reason Ed's campaign got off the ground was exactly because he was supposed to be good at appealing to former-LD/Green/SNP types. He was meant to be the most capable of bringing those voters 'home'...

... because he, almost certainly, was.  (At least as far as LDs and Greens are concerned.)  The fact that Ed Miliband isn't a brilliant leader doesn't mean that he wasn't the best choice out of those available.  Some people mythologise his brother, but I see very little reason why.

With the benefit of hindsight, I'd agree that Ed was the best on offer.

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I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

People like you thought that anyway.

No. I've been a pretty big fan of him since about 2 years ago since he actually decided to start acting like he wants to be PM. To the point where, with hindsight, I wish I'd voted for him, since David turned round and threw his dummy out the pram.

He's got so much potential and it's so frustrating that he's not been able to build a rapport with the electorate.

I just get the feeling that the narrative around him has changed over the last month or so.

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Norman Baker (Lib Dem, Lewes) has resigned as Home Office minister, with a parting shot at Theresa May and the Home Office's lack of interest in evidence-based policy:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/03/norman-baker-resigns-home-office-minister

(I'd have thought he might have noticed before now, but oh well.)

"Look guys, we're honestly nothing like the Tories. At all. I'm resigning. It was like walking through mud working with Theresa May, but voting with the Tories on tuition fees, tax cuts for millionaires and the Bedroom Tax was, on the other hand, a cakewalk."

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Miliband leadership "on the line" after two MPs make anonymous calls for him to go.

As Dugher's pointed out, maybe the party would be more worried if those two MPs defected to another party and took two safe seats with them. But the media.

Terrible news for Ed Miliband.

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An "IDS-Howard" situation implies that enough in the party have already conceded we're not going to win. The PLP is obviously worried, but to the point where they think Labour's completely out the game? I don't think so.

And anyway, I personally don't think Burnham and Cooper have the network in the PLP to knock Ed off his pedestal yet.

If there becomes a feeling that there can be this bloody coup (which would inevitably bruise many who attached themselves to Team Ed (Chuka, Creigh, Reeves)) and Labour can still be unified and win afterwards, then maybe I can see it happening. But I don't think it could ever be done cleanly, so...

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If the Labour Party falls short next year, they would have the SNP to thank for five more years of Conservative rule.

Labour already hate the SNP, there are councils in Scotland where Labour and the Conservatives are allied to keep them out, although westminster would obviously be a different ballgame

for two reasons: withdrawing support for Jim Callaghan's ailing government in 1979 and for daring to challenge Labour's hegemony of the centre-right (see also Sadiq Khan's mission to destroy the Greens by May next year)

As many Labour people loved pointing out during the referendum campaign, the SNP aren't the left-wing heroes that they liked people to think they were. They'll do or say anything, whether it's left wing or right wing, just as long as it furthers the course of independence.

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Some escalation in The Observer (remember when they endorsed Nick Clegg for PM?) of the EdM story. Still no actual names of plotters or any of the 20 shadow ministers who apparently want him to go.

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Emily Thornberry resigns from shadow cabinet.

She should have followed a great sage's advice - "too many tweets might make a twat".

EdM "angrier than he's ever been".

Really? Over THIS!?

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Also procuring new trains for the North to replace the unpopular Class 142/143 Pacers.

Apparently the book is a bit more nuanced in its wording that George O said. The gov will encourage bidders for the franchisers to replace the trains. Not exactly a cast-iron promise.

But I'm happy with their announcement on post-grad loans, as long as they extend it to all subject areas, so credit where credit's due. It's something students have been crying out for for a long time and I hope Labour can match it.

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The idea that the Osborne is able to cut public spending to 1930's levels, in an environment with far less working-aged people, while simultaneously cutting immigration as the Tory right are demanding, seems somewhat insane.

Not to mention quitting the EU.

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In case anybody is wondering, Labour Students does not support free education.

Labour Students probably being one of the most Blairite affiliates.

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In case anybody is wondering, Labour Students does not support free education.

Labour Students probably being one of the most Blairite affiliates.

Are there any actual left wing student organizations in the UK with significant support?

No

Heck, I don't even think the NUS position is free education.