UK General Discussion II

[afleitch]

Here's a handy guide who what party wants what out of the Lord Smith Commission on further Scottish devolution:

[afleitch]

Johann Lamont is to stand down as Labour leader in Scotland.

[afleitch]

This doesn't really feel like a surprise.

Without recent events she'd have stayed only for the fact that since the 2011 cull there is no one left.

[afleitch]

I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.

[afleitch]

I think the referendum will happen, as the Tories I think are likely to 'win' the next General Election. However I don't think the public will vote to exit. Once 'Europe' is personified during the campaign as cheap foreign flights and employment rights, rather than Romanians and bendy vegetables, people will be reluctant to vote to exit.

[afleitch]

Speaking of, YouGov finds that 6 weeks after the referendum, support for independence now sits at 52%.

[afleitch]

The Tories starting to eke out small leads in a number of polls recently. I hope it can be sustained, but then the Tories often seem to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory on that front.

Having said that, I still think they will remain the largest party come the GE.

[afleitch]

What happens if no one gets close to a majority and the Lib Dems are far too small to push anyone over the top? Minority government? Is a grand coalition possible in the UK? Or would that make about as much sense as a grand coalition in the US?

Well, if the SNP continue to do as well as they are doing at the moment we may well find out.

I think the two main parties are too used to treating each other as enemies for a grand coalition to be likely, and their bases would hate it, so I suspect we'd see a minority government of some sort.  (I don't think either Labour or the Tories will do a formal deal with the SNP, so a cobbled together "rainbow coalition" as briefly proposed after 2010 isn't likely either.)  The SNP will presumably abstain on issues which they don't think affect Scotland, so it might not be as unstable as all that; even so, the next election would be very likely to be before 2020.

The nightmare scenario is Con/UKIP/DUP.

A truly minority government can't happen simply because they won't have the number to get a Queen's Speech passed. If it's a minority by a few seats then it could be an effect 'majority' on the basis of Sinn Fein not taking up their seats, but if Labour and the Tories are both on say 280 something seats each, I fully expect there to be a second election. If the SNP hold the balance of power then they will argue for almost complete autonomy for Scotland to be passed asap. However, they already abstain at Westminster on issues that don't affect Scotland. If Scotland gets more devolution, then the SNP technically would have less of a presence. Labour or the Tories would need them to break recent habits and actually vote on UK wide legislation at least with respect to confidence motions, budgets etc. The SNP could therefore comfortably vote for draconian Tory legislation knowing that they need not do so at Holyrood. That would be a potentially difficult situation for them. Siding with Labour would be safer for them as it would blunt Labour's attack in 2016 at Holyrood, but would still safely allow the SNP to shaft Labour should they become deeply unpopular during the term.

Also, if the SNP are in coalition, would they take up ministerial posts? If Alex Salmond flirts with going back to Westminster and lead the bloc there, could he end up as Deputy PM? (no) The likelihood is that the SNP would take up no posts at all, but simply 'pass go' and collect new powers for Scotland. That would be ideal for the main partner in any coalition as it would effectively be a coalition in name only.

[afleitch]

On that note, Nicola Sturgeon has taken over as SNP leader today. Stewart Hosie, MP for Dundee East has been elected Deputy.

[afleitch]

On that note, Nicola Sturgeon has taken over as SNP leader today. Stewart Hosie, MP for Dundee East has been elected Deputy.

When does she become First Minister?

Parliament has to vote her in, but it's a formality. Should be next week.

[afleitch]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30157507

Interesting.

He know's that this re-election campaign starts now. And he won't be.

[afleitch]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/a-long-list-of-sex-acts-just-got-banned-in-uk-porn-9897174.html

Horrible.

[afleitch]

Banning female ejaculation from pornographic films is blatant misogyny. It's almost funny if the signal it sent wasn't so downright sad. I have probably been to the moon more times than i've ever seen that on film or would ever want to, but banning the female climax from any pornographic movie no matter how 'honest and gentle' that portrayal is, isn't tasteful.

[afleitch]

A lot of rumours flying about today about a potential Christmas abdication announcement.

[afleitch]

A lot of rumours flying about today about a potential Christmas abdication announcement.

I doubt that Charles will abdicate the Princedom of Wales in favor of his son William, but we can always hope.

Abdication is a very modern solution to what happens when royality 'just won't die.' The Queen in 88. Charles is 66 and William is 32. If the Queen lives as long as her mother, Charles will himself be 79 when he becomes king. The potential for a succession of geriatric monarchs is a potential problem because despite what people often think, the monarch has things to do in a constitutional sense. It makes sense for the Queen to step down and Charles to reign for a decade before handing down to William.

I quite like Charles, but that aside handing over straight to William would be problematic but also unfair on the man who can at least have the luxury of raising a family before he steps into the role. It also helps the process of disestablishment re the CofE if that is opted.

[afleitch]

Not a very good day. I am well and everyone I've contacted is okay but horrific scenes.

[afleitch]

Rotherham sh!t storm. Discuss.

[afleitch]

Commissioners taking over has been inevitable since the Jay report last year (because that's the way that central government responds to this kind of thing now).

The report today is both damning and a wonderful insight into how organisations protect themselves, even so much as 'blaming' the victims. Also the asian elephant in the room...

[afleitch]

56% of Scots are tone deaf: official.

The thing is, by comparison Flower of Scotland is the most upbeat of the home nations, despite being dull. God Save the Queen and Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau are both dirges.

[afleitch]

Peter Oborne has resigned from the Telegraph

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/peter-oborne-quits-the-telegraph

[afleitch]

Jack Straw and Malcolm Rifkind have been very bad. Labour have suspended Straw from the PLP.

[afleitch]

Ah, the usual lobbying sting. There was one before the last GE as well: is this becoming a tradition?

Yes. The Telegraph wants to be loved again. Nothing like destroying public trust in democratic institutions a few months before an election.

[afleitch]

The press conference by apologist group 'CAGE' in light of the 'Jihadi John' revelation is nothing short of disturbingly mesmerising.

[afleitch]

Nuggets of fun from the National Union of Students Women’s Conference

White gay men are the dominant demographic group within the LGBT community and therefore have both white privilege and male privilege. Therefore it is ‘unacceptable’ for gay men to say they have an ‘inner strong black woman’ (do we?) Gay men should therefore not ‘imitate African American Vernacular English.'

Despite this, the commented that delegates should move to ‘jazz hands’ (!) rather than clapping as clapping may trigger anxiety. This has since been challenged that using hand waves to signal agreement may discriminate against the blind and partially sighted. This was then rebuked by saying that clapping disadvantages those who are deaf or hearing impaired until it was pointed out that if you are deaf, you can still see people clapping.

Gay men should not dress in drag as it’s ‘offensive to trans women’ UNLESS you are queer and it’s a mode of self-expression (that clears that up then)

[afleitch]

Nuggets of fun from the National Union of Students Women’s Conference

White gay men are the dominant demographic group within the LGBT community and therefore have both white privilege and male privilege. Therefore it is ‘unacceptable’ for gay men to say they have an ‘inner strong black woman’ (do we?) Gay men should therefore not ‘imitate African American Vernacular English.'

Despite this, the commented that delegates should move to ‘jazz hands’ (!) rather than clapping as clapping may trigger anxiety. This has since been challenged that using hand waves to signal agreement may discriminate against the blind and partially sighted. This was then rebuked by saying that clapping disadvantages those who are deaf or hearing impaired until it was pointed out that if you are deaf, you can still see people clapping.

Gay men should not dress in drag as it’s ‘offensive to trans women’ UNLESS you are queer and it’s a mode of self-expression (that clears that up then)

...?

I've posted this here because their live twitter feed started to blow up after they announced this at conference. For a group that advocated gender fluidity they seem to have decided gay men doing things or having expressions appearing to be 'feminine' is a problem. Basically they fired a shot above the parapet at their own allies. Unfortunately this sort of godawful committee speak in an otherwise fruitful conference has essentially given some of their most odious opponents ammunition.

Here is the motion in full:

Conference Further Believes:

1. This type of appropriation is unacceptable and must be addressed.
2. Low numbers of Black LGBT women delegates attend NUS LGBT conference. This can be attributed to many factors, one of which may be the prevalent appropriation by white gay men, which may mean that delegates do not feel comfortable or safe attending conference.


Conference Resolves:

1. To work to eradicate the appropriation of black women by white gay men.
2. To work in conjunction with NUS LGBT campaign to raise awareness of the issue, to calll it out as unacceptable behaviour and, where appropriate, to educate those who perpetuate this behaviour.

The bit in bold has LGBT groups up in arms (or should that be jazz hands) because it makes the assumption that there is a physical/sexual threat in gay white men being prevalent at the LGBT conference.