State Legislatures in Play
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  State Legislatures in Play
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Author Topic: State Legislatures in Play  (Read 3389 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: September 26, 2014, 10:04:07 PM »

For the purposes of this thread, A = Assembly and S = Senate. This is about control of each legislature, not any individual race. Just by doing some quick looking of some numbers, I just guessed some ratings.

Likely R:

AZ S
AR A
IA A
MI A

Lean R:

PA S
PA A
WI S

Toss-Up:

KY A*
NV S
NH S
NY S
WV A

Lean D:

CO S
IA S
WA S

Likely D:


ME S
NM A

*This and the governor's race could be critical to Rand Paul in 2016
What do you think are the most hotly watched legislatures of this cycles? Insight and more realistic ratings would be appreciated. Smiley
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2014, 12:59:55 AM »

Kentucky Republicans didn't seriously contest enough seats to win the Kentucky House. Both of the Democrats in my immediate area are unopposed, which is unusual. Republicans in nearby districts are usually unopposed, but one of them actually has an opponent this time.

There's actually a couple of Republican incumbents downstate who might lose for being too extreme.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2014, 02:04:13 AM »

Governing did good report with state profiles a few months ago.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2014, 07:40:50 AM »

NH A is also a toss-up.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2014, 12:27:50 PM »

I'd say the Michigan House is a little more of a toss-up. The blue team only needs 5 seats to take control.
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bgwah
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2014, 02:15:01 PM »

Republicans will likely hold onto the Washington Senate. Democrats will gain the 48th, and Republicans will gain the 30th, resulting in the same 26-23 split we currently have.

A Democratic victory isn't impossible. There are a couple of marginally Democratic seats the Republicans picked up in 2010 that are in play, but if the primary is any indication (it usually is) they won't be flipping in November.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2014, 02:17:03 PM »

Why do the Republicans have the Senate in WASHINGTON STATE (of all places) in the first place?
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2014, 05:09:06 PM »

Why do the Republicans have the Senate in WASHINGTON STATE (of all places) in the first place?
Same reason Republicans hold the New York Senate, power-hungry rogue Democrats.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2014, 05:12:21 PM »

Why do the Republicans have the Senate in WASHINGTON STATE (of all places) in the first place?
Same reason Republicans hold the New York Senate, power-hungry rogue Democrats.

I guess that's kind of how the Republicans got the Kentucky Senate in the late '90s.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2014, 08:10:44 PM »

Indiana and Illinois are also completely out of play, Likely R and Likely D respectively. Both are so gerrymandered and the states have gone so far in opposite directions, it would take an Act of God to make them competitive. The only difference being is the GOP may pick up just a few seats in Illinois and hold steady in Indiana (since they've already maxed out).
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Vega
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2014, 08:45:47 AM »

The PA House of Representatives is sadly looking more and more Likely R.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2014, 09:00:39 AM »

The PA House of Representatives is sadly looking more and more Likely R.

It was never really in play. The talk of Wolf coat tails has been vastly overstated here.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2014, 09:02:32 AM »

The PA House of Representatives is sadly looking more and more Likely R.

It was never really in play. The talk of Wolf coat tails has been vastly overstated here.

I think when you have a Gubernatorial candidate winning by 20+ percent, possibly, it's easy to get carried away with coattails.
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KCDem
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2014, 12:57:08 PM »

All the Democratically-held ones. The impeding Republican wave will be overwhelming.
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Frodo
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2014, 06:38:57 PM »


Is there an updated version of that, now that Election Day is only a couple of weeks away?
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2014, 06:49:39 PM »

The PA House of Representatives is sadly looking more and more Likely R.

It was never really in play. The talk of Wolf coat tails has been vastly overstated here.

I think when you have a Gubernatorial candidate winning by 20+ percent, possibly, it's easy to get carried away with coattails.

Coattails always have been and always will be overrated.  Most voters are perfectly capable of ticket splitting when it suits their agenda.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2014, 07:01:50 PM »

The PA House of Representatives is sadly looking more and more Likely R.

It was never really in play. The talk of Wolf coat tails has been vastly overstated here.

I think when you have a Gubernatorial candidate winning by 20+ percent, possibly, it's easy to get carried away with coattails.

Coattails always have been and always will be overrated.  Most voters are perfectly capable of ticket splitting when it suits their agenda.

In already close races, though, having a strong top of the ticket can help one candidate or another.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2014, 11:35:02 AM »


Not that I've seen, but RRH had a good post today about state legislatures.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2014, 02:25:02 PM »

Does anyone know a compilation map about the different state legislatures?
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KCDem
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2014, 02:50:33 PM »


More right-wing spin.
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muon2
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2014, 03:57:12 PM »


What Governing noted, but RRH missed, is that there is a big battle for swing districts in the IL House this year. The Dems have the minimum number of seats to command a supermajority and with it the power to override vetoes, pass bonding issues, and pass legislation after the constitutional end of session in May. It's particularly huge given the possibility of a Pub win for Gov, and the negotiating power a supermajority would have. A net of just one seat to the Pubs removes that supermajority status.
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Frodo
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2014, 09:50:04 PM »


Thanks!  Smiley

 I was hoping for something more extensive like that article you posted a month ago, but beggars can't be choosers, I guess. 
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rbt48
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2014, 01:21:22 PM »

What are the rules in the Kentucky House if it ends up 50D, 50R?  Are there co-speakers each alternating daily?

Also, if it ends up 50 - 50, would a more conservative Democrat running unopposed be likely to caucus with the Republicans.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2014, 01:23:53 PM »

If the awful NV early vote numbers hold then the senate is likely R and the assembly should be a toss-up.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2014, 03:46:56 PM »


For some info on the NH races themselves:

SD-6: I'm not buying it. Cataldo seems good enough for this race, and Leonhard strikes me as kind of weak. This race definitely leans Republican.

SD-8: Yeah, very competitive. One of the last moderates has retired, and I really can't say who wins between Little (who's your average CoC Republican/bank shill) and Tanner.

SD-9: The only reason this is competitive is because Andy Sanborn cannot keep his mouth shut. Thankfully for him he hasn't said or done anything offensive recently, but if Nyquist can hit him hard there, he can definitely win.

SD-12: This is not competitive at all. Kevin Avard is an MRA who was caught violating his wife's domestic violence protection order. What an utter disaster.

I'd say SD-16 (Republican incumbent is strong, but went through a bloody primary) and SD-24 (stronger-than-expected candidate in Muns) are more competitive than 6 and 12
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