Catalan Independence Referendum (with FREE constitutional crisis!)
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Author Topic: Catalan Independence Referendum (with FREE constitutional crisis!)  (Read 11704 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: September 27, 2014, 01:25:53 PM »

Now that a date has been... well... is set the right word? Anyway, 9th of November.

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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2014, 01:31:56 PM »

If Spain says no it will be interesting simply because, legal machinations aside, if a bit of a country democratically votes to leave then it's not very democratic to not let them leave. Given the EU's passive aggressiveness when it came to Scotland it will be interesting to see what will be said about Catalonia given that it is clearly 'rich' (i.e it has owned it's own narrative with respect to it's wealth and self sufficiency in a manner we could not)
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2014, 01:57:17 PM »

Don't rule out the intervention of the military if it all goes pot. Actually they are certainly intervening already.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2014, 02:04:36 PM »

Rajoy could just symbolically call the ''No'' voters to boycott the referendum and it effectively becomes a joke. That didn't stop Bosnia from declaring independence from Yugoslavia, but Catalonia won't have the same issue with Bosnian Serbs, would it?


Also, will the old Paises Catalans not be involved? Seems like their giving up their claim to them.
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Hash
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2014, 02:07:58 PM »

Also, will the old Paises Catalans not be involved? Seems like their giving up their claim to them.

Basically nobody in those regions support the idea of some Greater Catalonia. Look at how the ERC (the maximalist party) performs in the Valencian Community or the Balearic Islands...
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Velasco
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2014, 02:08:54 PM »

Campaign starts officially tomorrow. Officially, this is a consulta popular no referendària
sobre el futur polític de Catalunya
. You can see the official ballot with the two questions in a website of the Catalan government:

http://www.9nconsulta2014.cat/pdf/papereta_CA_ES.pdf

As long the central government appeals to the constitutional court, after the cabinet's emergency meeting on Monday, the consultation (according to the text approved by the Parliament of Catalonia past week, it's not officially a referendum) and the campaign will be automatically suspended until said court rules.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/27/catalan-leader-calls-independence-vote

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Simfan34
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2014, 02:26:59 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 02:31:30 PM by Governor Varavour »

Don't rule out the intervention of the military if it all goes pot. Actually they are certainly intervening already.

Tell me more.

Rajoy could just symbolically call the ''No'' voters to boycott the referendum and it effectively becomes a joke. That didn't stop Bosnia from declaring independence from Yugoslavia, but Catalonia won't have the same issue with Bosnian Serbs, would it?


Also, will the old Paises Catalans not be involved? Seems like their giving up their claim to them.

If a majority of registered (or qualified, whatever) voters voted "Yes", I have difficulty seeing such a tactic working.

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Is this something they'd really want to do? Wouldn't the... effects of this be, well, uh...
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Velasco
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2014, 02:41:01 PM »


Rajoy could just symbolically call the ''No'' voters to boycott the referendum and it effectively becomes a joke. That didn't stop Bosnia from declaring independence from Yugoslavia, but Catalonia won't have the same issue with Bosnian Serbs, would it?


Also, will the old Paises Catalans not be involved? Seems like their giving up their claim to them.

If a majority of registered (or qualified, whatever) voters voted "Yes", I have difficulty seeing such a tactic working.

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Is this something they'd really want to do? Wouldn't the... effects of this be, well, uh...

The question was on the Catalan speaking regions outside Catalonia. Qualified voters have to vote "Yes-Yes", "Yes-No" or just "No". Voters are qualified to answer the second question if they have voted "yes" to the first question. As for the suspension of the autonomy, the effects would be... well, I agree with you.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2014, 02:45:48 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 02:49:52 PM by Governor Varavour »


Rajoy could just symbolically call the ''No'' voters to boycott the referendum and it effectively becomes a joke. That didn't stop Bosnia from declaring independence from Yugoslavia, but Catalonia won't have the same issue with Bosnian Serbs, would it?


Also, will the old Paises Catalans not be involved? Seems like their giving up their claim to them.

If a majority of registered (or qualified, whatever) voters voted "Yes", I have difficulty seeing such a tactic working.

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Is this something they'd really want to do? Wouldn't the... effects of this be, well, uh...

The question was on the Catalan speaking regions outside Catalonia. Qualified voters have to vote "Yes-Yes", "Yes-No" or just "No". Voters are qualified to answer the second question if they have voted "yes" to the first question. As for the suspension of the autonomy, the effects would be... well, I agree with you.

Ah, I see. Do you think "Yes-Yes" could get an outright majority of the electorate? 

Either way this is all very exciting. I cannot wait to hear what my professor thinks of this, he is Catalonian and a big pro-independence guy...
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Velasco
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2014, 02:55:32 PM »

A huge majority of voters, sure. An outright majority of the electorate is harder to achieve. As someone noted, people against independence will likely boycott the consultation. The vote will have some logistical difficulties. For instance, all ballot boxes used in elections belong to the Spain's electoral commission. Let alone that the central government may use the public force to remove the ballot boxes provided by the Catalan government in some polling places. Strange that nobody asked which are the questions of the referendum or consultation.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2014, 03:35:46 PM »

See, this was what I was wondering: as to how Madrid could physically stop the referendum from taking place. Could the regional government seize ballot boxes by force? What would the police do if given contradictory orders?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2014, 04:09:41 PM »

As the consultation will most likely be recognized as unconstitutional by Spain's Supreme Court, and any declaration of independence would be considered illegal under international law by 99.9% of the international community, I think using force would be a mistake by Rajoy. He should use the rule of law in his favor.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2014, 04:48:19 PM »

So assuming the referendum is forced into being called off, what happens next? Its not as if that is in anyway going to end the issue.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2014, 08:07:31 PM »

This calls for flowcharts!
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2014, 08:41:42 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 08:43:41 PM by ilikeverin »


Very nifty!  I suppose we're on the Option 3 track now.  Now let's see where we go next.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2014, 09:07:45 PM »


The author says the probabilities of more sh-t hitting the fan as opposed to less have gone up:

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Velasco
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2014, 03:11:45 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2014, 06:23:13 PM by Velasco »

As the consultation will most likely be recognized as unconstitutional by Spain's Supreme Court, and any declaration of independence would be considered illegal under international law by 99.9% of the international community, I think using force would be a mistake by Rajoy. He should use the rule of law in his favor.

Yes, agreed. Using force is the worst course of action possible. By the moment, Vice PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría remarked that the government will continue with the steps previously envisaged: appeal to the constitutional court, etcetera. I have not a clue on the plans of Rajoy for November 9.

The flow chart is interesting, but in my opinion this analysis is simplistic:

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I agree on the first paragraph, sending the representatives of the so called sovereignist bloc was a calculated risk on the part of Artur Mas. He was sure that the Spanish government would never accept the offer. However, the author fails to address (at least in this article) all the motivations behind the Mas drive to the referendum since the beginning of the process. I doubt that Mas had ever the real intent to negotiate a solution, and the inflexibility of the central government has helped him to go forwards, who knows where. The second paragraph is a caricature. The pro-independence aspirations are peaceful and democratic, although I doubt they justify the Catalan government to act unilaterally. On the other hand, the central government is trying to preserve the statu quo against the will of a majority of the Catalan people. There is a complex confluence of dissatisfactions that fuel the independence movement. It would be simplistic to say that demands end in independence or political status, there is a huge social and economic unrest and many other factors in play. In pro-independence demonstrations you can see genuine independentists (they are much stronger than in previous years), but also people with a wide range of motivations and demands. I dislike what is called  "the oppressive Castilian clique", but I feel the text suggests that Catalonia is living now under a quasi authoritarian regime. Far from that, Catalonia is an autonomous region with a high level of devolution. The Spanish model of autonomous regions has many flaws, but the claim that the present modus vivendi is "actively engaged in ruining the Catalan economy" or "stamping out the unique culture and identity of the Catalan people" is an overexaggeration, if not a fallacy. In the first case, there exists a conflict of interests between the Catalan and the Spanish government on the regional financing. Catalans argued, with some reason, that their contribution to the Spanish economy was much greater than the amount in investments they were receiving in return. Experts coincide that the financing system is unfair in the % of the GDP amount of the Catalan contribution, added to a deficit of infrastructures in the region. However, a problem that should be solved by a normal negotiation between administrations was used by certain Catalan nationalists to raise the famous "Spain robs us" slogan, blatant exaggeration or demagoguery which nowadays has fallen in disuse. The attitude of the Spanish government never helped. At first, the economic crisis was used as an argument to delay negotiations on that sensible matter; subsequently, Rajoy offered Mas having talks, arguably too late. Nowadays the regional finances and the Catalonia's huge debt are supported by loans from the central government. The second claim is unsustainable, since the Catalan government has full competences in Culture, Education and linguistic policies. Even if the central government wanted to do so, efforts would be completely ineffective, unless the devolution of powers was reversed. In that regard, certain legislation sponsored by the minister of Education was absolutely pointless, except in pleasing some hardliners and pouring oil upon the flames.

I guess we are in the "Crimea option" now. I couldn't agree more on the idiocy of those Margallo statements.
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ag
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2014, 03:01:20 PM »

The stupidest thing the Spanish government could do is to resort to force, arrest Mas, or anything else of that nature. Once it goes that way, Catalan independence becomes nearly certain within a fairly short period. Their options are either a) ignore or b) engage. The latter would mean trying to change the terms of the argument in such a way that there is no unambiguous vote for independence. But force would be disastrous.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2014, 03:45:34 PM »

In October 6, Catalonian will commemorate 80 years of Declaration of a "Catalan State, inside Spanish Federal Republic" by Lluis Companys (ERC's leader and Generalitat President who was shot by Francoist regime). Many things will happen to remember that.
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Velasco
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2014, 06:51:12 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2014, 07:09:47 PM by Velasco »

As someone noted, people against independence will likely boycott the consultation.

I should qualify that remark. Parties against independence -and presumably many of their supporters- will likely boycott the consultation. Arguably, there are people wanting to cast a ballot voting "No", if only because they feel they had too much. Others supporting the consultation may choose the "Yes-No" or the "No" options.  This debate is nearly the only issue only issue under discussion. Many people in both sides feel weary. Likely there is a relation between that sensation of weariness and the rise of Podemos that polls detect in Catalonia. According to them, the party is catching votes from both sides of the national axis (former voters of Cs, PSC, ICV-EUiA, the CUP and maybe ERC).
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Velasco
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2014, 07:19:10 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2014, 07:26:56 PM by Velasco »

Their options are either a) ignore or b) engage. The latter would mean trying to change the terms of the argument in such a way that there is no unambiguous vote for independence.

I think there is no chance for the government to continue ignoring what's happening in Catalonia. The second course of action has some chances, since the consultation questions are somewhat controversial or tricky. If the "Yes-Yes" option doesn't get a majority of the electorate, that's another card to play. However, the government will have to engage in some kind of pacted solution afterwards.
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ag
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2014, 10:09:40 PM »

Their options are either a) ignore or b) engage. The latter would mean trying to change the terms of the argument in such a way that there is no unambiguous vote for independence.

I think there is no chance for the government to continue ignoring what's happening in Catalonia. The second course of action has some chances, since the consultation questions are somewhat controversial or tricky. If the "Yes-Yes" option doesn't get a majority of the electorate, that's another card to play. However, the government will have to engage in some kind of pacted solution afterwards.

They have to engage earlier. Catalans are the people who negotiate and can be negotiated with. As it stands, the Madrid government is almost provoking the catalanista electorate into turning out and voting Yes-Yes. Or, should I say, "si no, No!" Smiley
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Velasco
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2014, 03:54:55 AM »

As it stands, the Madrid government is almost provoking the catalanista electorate into turning out and voting Yes-Yes. Or, should I say, "si no, No!" Smiley

Exactly, that's the situation right now. The options in play are independence or statu quo, with an ambiguous and not defined "statehood without independence" option inbetween (the "Yes-No"). There is an overwhelming majority of Catalans disaffected with the statu quo, so inflexibility and "do nothing" policies provoke them to choose the "Yes-Yes" option.

The conflict here is between the will of the people to vote on their future and the rule of law. While it's illegal to act against the Constitution in order to secede unilaterally, when the letter of the law is contrary to the will of the people, it's legitimacy becomes questionable.

The only example that I know dealing with this complex question is the Clarity Act passed by the Parliament of Canada. While contexts are different, I think some of the key points are applicable.

http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-31.8/FullText.html
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2014, 04:37:55 AM »

As it stands, the Madrid government is almost provoking the catalanista electorate into turning out and voting Yes-Yes. Or, should I say, "si no, No!" Smiley

Exactly, that's the situation right now. The options in play are independence or statu quo, with an ambiguous and not defined "statehood without independence" option inbetween (the "Yes-No"). There is an overwhelming majority of Catalans disaffected with the statu quo, so inflexibility and "do nothing" policies provoke them to choose the "Yes-Yes" option.

The conflict here is between the will of the people to vote on their future and the rule of law. While it's illegal to act against the Constitution in order to secede unilaterally, when the letter of the law is contrary to the will of the people, it's legitimacy becomes questionable.

The only example that I know dealing with this complex question is the Clarity Act passed by the Parliament of Canada. While contexts are different, I think some of the key points are applicable.

http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-31.8/FullText.html


What does this mean? Seems very strange to have it as an option if people won't know what they're actually voting for.
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Zanas
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2014, 04:47:24 AM »

As it stands, the Madrid government is almost provoking the catalanista electorate into turning out and voting Yes-Yes. Or, should I say, "si no, No!" Smiley

Exactly, that's the situation right now. The options in play are independence or statu quo, with an ambiguous and not defined "statehood without independence" option inbetween (the "Yes-No"). There is an overwhelming majority of Catalans disaffected with the statu quo, so inflexibility and "do nothing" policies provoke them to choose the "Yes-Yes" option.

The conflict here is between the will of the people to vote on their future and the rule of law. While it's illegal to act against the Constitution in order to secede unilaterally, when the letter of the law is contrary to the will of the people, it's legitimacy becomes questionable.

The only example that I know dealing with this complex question is the Clarity Act passed by the Parliament of Canada. While contexts are different, I think some of the key points are applicable.

http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-31.8/FullText.html


What does this mean? Seems very strange to have it as an option if people won't know what they're actually voting for.
I'd say it's meant to push federalism on the agenda, should the Si-Si option not garner enough votes. I'm not sure if right now an autonomous Spanish region like Catalonia has more autonomy than a German Land for example, but surely Catalonia would at least want to be a state within a federation, basically enabling them to go their own way at some distant point in the future.
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