Catalan Independence Referendum (with FREE constitutional crisis!)

[Velasco]

Campaign starts officially tomorrow. Officially, this is a consulta popular no referendària
sobre el futur polític de Catalunya. You can see the official ballot with the two questions in a website of the Catalan government:

http://www.9nconsulta2014.cat/pdf/papereta_CA_ES.pdf

As long the central government appeals to the constitutional court, after the cabinet's emergency meeting on Monday, the consultation (according to the text approved by the Parliament of Catalonia past week, it's not officially a referendum) and the campaign will be automatically suspended until said court rules.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/27/catalan-leader-calls-independence-vote

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[Velasco]

Rajoy could just symbolically call the ''No'' voters to boycott the referendum and it effectively becomes a joke. That didn't stop Bosnia from declaring independence from Yugoslavia, but Catalonia won't have the same issue with Bosnian Serbs, would it?


Also, will the old Paises Catalans not be involved? Seems like their giving up their claim to them.

If a majority of registered (or qualified, whatever) voters voted "Yes", I have difficulty seeing such a tactic working.

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Is this something they'd really want to do? Wouldn't the... effects of this be, well, uh...

The question was on the Catalan speaking regions outside Catalonia. Qualified voters have to vote "Yes-Yes", "Yes-No" or just "No". Voters are qualified to answer the second question if they have voted "yes" to the first question. As for the suspension of the autonomy, the effects would be... well, I agree with you.

[Velasco]

A huge majority of voters, sure. An outright majority of the electorate is harder to achieve. As someone noted, people against independence will likely boycott the consultation. The vote will have some logistical difficulties. For instance, all ballot boxes used in elections belong to the Spain's electoral commission. Let alone that the central government may use the public force to remove the ballot boxes provided by the Catalan government in some polling places. Strange that nobody asked which are the questions of the referendum or consultation.

[Velasco]

As the consultation will most likely be recognized as unconstitutional by Spain's Supreme Court, and any declaration of independence would be considered illegal under international law by 99.9% of the international community, I think using force would be a mistake by Rajoy. He should use the rule of law in his favor.

Yes, agreed. Using force is the worst course of action possible. By the moment, Vice PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría remarked that the government will continue with the steps previously envisaged: appeal to the constitutional court, etcetera. I have not a clue on the plans of Rajoy for November 9.

The flow chart is interesting, but in my opinion this analysis is simplistic:

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I agree on the first paragraph, sending the representatives of the so called sovereignist bloc was a calculated risk on the part of Artur Mas. He was sure that the Spanish government would never accept the offer. However, the author fails to address (at least in this article) all the motivations behind the Mas drive to the referendum since the beginning of the process. I doubt that Mas had ever the real intent to negotiate a solution, and the inflexibility of the central government has helped him to go forwards, who knows where. The second paragraph is a caricature. The pro-independence aspirations are peaceful and democratic, although I doubt they justify the Catalan government to act unilaterally. On the other hand, the central government is trying to preserve the statu quo against the will of a majority of the Catalan people. There is a complex confluence of dissatisfactions that fuel the independence movement. It would be simplistic to say that demands end in independence or political status, there is a huge social and economic unrest and many other factors in play. In pro-independence demonstrations you can see genuine independentists (they are much stronger than in previous years), but also people with a wide range of motivations and demands. I dislike what is called  "the oppressive Castilian clique", but I feel the text suggests that Catalonia is living now under a quasi authoritarian regime. Far from that, Catalonia is an autonomous region with a high level of devolution. The Spanish model of autonomous regions has many flaws, but the claim that the present modus vivendi is "actively engaged in ruining the Catalan economy" or "stamping out the unique culture and identity of the Catalan people" is an overexaggeration, if not a fallacy. In the first case, there exists a conflict of interests between the Catalan and the Spanish government on the regional financing. Catalans argued, with some reason, that their contribution to the Spanish economy was much greater than the amount in investments they were receiving in return. Experts coincide that the financing system is unfair in the % of the GDP amount of the Catalan contribution, added to a deficit of infrastructures in the region. However, a problem that should be solved by a normal negotiation between administrations was used by certain Catalan nationalists to raise the famous "Spain robs us" slogan, blatant exaggeration or demagoguery which nowadays has fallen in disuse. The attitude of the Spanish government never helped. At first, the economic crisis was used as an argument to delay negotiations on that sensible matter; subsequently, Rajoy offered Mas having talks, arguably too late. Nowadays the regional finances and the Catalonia's huge debt are supported by loans from the central government. The second claim is unsustainable, since the Catalan government has full competences in Culture, Education and linguistic policies. Even if the central government wanted to do so, efforts would be completely ineffective, unless the devolution of powers was reversed. In that regard, certain legislation sponsored by the minister of Education was absolutely pointless, except in pleasing some hardliners and pouring oil upon the flames.

I guess we are in the "Crimea option" now. I couldn't agree more on the idiocy of those Margallo statements.

[Velasco]

As someone noted, people against independence will likely boycott the consultation.

I should qualify that remark. Parties against independence -and presumably many of their supporters- will likely boycott the consultation. Arguably, there are people wanting to cast a ballot voting "No", if only because they feel they had too much. Others supporting the consultation may choose the "Yes-No" or the "No" options.  This debate is nearly the only issue only issue under discussion. Many people in both sides feel weary. Likely there is a relation between that sensation of weariness and the rise of Podemos that polls detect in Catalonia. According to them, the party is catching votes from both sides of the national axis (former voters of Cs, PSC, ICV-EUiA, the CUP and maybe ERC).

[Velasco]

Their options are either a) ignore or b) engage. The latter would mean trying to change the terms of the argument in such a way that there is no unambiguous vote for independence.

I think there is no chance for the government to continue ignoring what's happening in Catalonia. The second course of action has some chances, since the consultation questions are somewhat controversial or tricky. If the "Yes-Yes" option doesn't get a majority of the electorate, that's another card to play. However, the government will have to engage in some kind of pacted solution afterwards.

[Velasco]

As it stands, the Madrid government is almost provoking the catalanista electorate into turning out and voting Yes-Yes. Or, should I say, "si no, No!"

Exactly, that's the situation right now. The options in play are independence or statu quo, with an ambiguous and not defined "statehood without independence" option inbetween (the "Yes-No"). There is an overwhelming majority of Catalans disaffected with the statu quo, so inflexibility and "do nothing" policies provoke them to choose the "Yes-Yes" option.

The conflict here is between the will of the people to vote on their future and the rule of law. While it's illegal to act against the Constitution in order to secede unilaterally, when the letter of the law is contrary to the will of the people, it's legitimacy becomes questionable.

The only example that I know dealing with this complex question is the Clarity Act passed by the Parliament of Canada. While contexts are different, I think some of the key points are applicable.

http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-31.8/FullText.html

[Velasco]

What does this mean? Seems very strange to have it as an option if people won't know what they're actually voting for.

It's hard to know what that option actually means, yes. That is the one main reasons why I don't support this consultation, even though I am in favour to the right of the Catalans to vote. Actually, that option was a compromise solution to engage ICV-EUiA and the minor CiU partner (the UDC) in the sovereignist bloc supporting the referendum/consultation. ERC would have preferred only two options: "yes" and "no". Given that "no" implies preserving the statu quo which a majority of Catalans reject, regardless if they are really pro independence or not, it's something like a win-win. That vague "yes-no" option doesn't suppose a big change; in my opinion, it just translates "win-win" into "yes-yes".

I'd say it's meant to push federalism on the agenda, should the Si-Si option not garner enough votes. I'm not sure if right now an autonomous Spanish region like Catalonia has more autonomy than a German Land for example, but surely Catalonia would at least want to be a state within a federation, basically enabling them to go their own way at some distant point in the future.

The question is that is pointless pushing an alternative federalist or confederalist option (the "statehood" can be interpreted in both ways) without an actual proposal on the table. Opinion polls show a strong but not necessarily a majority support for independence, but also a remarkable support for a "third way" (the hypothetical federal or confederal solution). In some polls, the "third way" surpasses independence. I think that people supporting said alternative deserve an articulate offer. The main problem is that such offer requires constitutional changes, given that it implies reshaping the current structure of the Spanish state. Federalists in Catalonia are aware that PP, UPyD and even many people in PSOE are not in favour of granting "statehood" or "privileges" to some regions.

PSOE has a federalist proposal, but it's absolutely unappealing for Catalans. The Declaración de Granada was just a compromise solution between Spanish and Catalan socialists; they were divided on the issue of the referendum in Catalonia. Pedro Sánchez had a meeting with Mas recently. It was useless, neither Mas is interested in the socialist proposal nor Sánchez wants to "cut the sovereignty of the Spanish people into pieces". Rajoy rejected the same proposal in another meeting with Sánchez.

I have the impression that Catalonia has more competences than German lands in many regards, although maybe less competences on some particular issues (rail lines, for instance).

[Velasco]

The Catalan government suspended the referendum campaign. Spokesman Francesc Homs denied that the withdrawal of the institutional campaign had left independence supporters disillusioned, because the process isn't over.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/30/inenglish/1412088771_951672.html

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The key points of the Spain's government appeal:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/29/inenglish/1412002176_783850.html?rel=rosEP
 

[Velasco]

It just means that the Catalan government won't continue with the institutional campaign, after the Constitutional Court suspended yesterday the decree calling for the referendum and the bill on consultations passed by the Parliament of Catalonia, which was intended to be the legal framework for the referendum. The suspension will last for a period of five months, which may be extended until the court rules.

The Generalitat spokepersons and the pro referendum parties state that they are determined to vote and subsequently they'll determine what steps to take. The Catalan National Assembly (ANC), ERC and the CUP advocate for "civil disobedience". Just to speculate, the suspension of the institutional campaign suggests that the Generalitat doesn't want to involve regional officials, so maybe they are planning to hold an informal consultation in order that independence supporters turn out to vote, with ballot boxes in the streets or where possible and massive demonstrations. Artur Mas said in a recent interview that he has an alternative plan, perhaps calling for "plebiscitary" elections or anything else. I heard someone mentioning February 2015, but that's only a rumour. In any case, Mas will continue one way or another. There exists a consensus in regarding him as political corpse, only held as long as he continues conducting the independence drive.

[Velasco]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/world/europe/catalonias-leader-plays-down-talk-of-secession-crisis.html?ref=europe&_r=1

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[Velasco]

Finally, the Catalan referendum won't be held as it was intended. Artur Mas told yesterday that the project lacks enough legal guarantees, as well the projected consultation was facing some logistic problems such as a delay in the election registration process. The latter was criticised because Catalans living in the rest of Spain weren't eligible, while those living in other EU countries were given the right to vote in this consultation. The lack of legal guarantees mentioned by Mas provoked the resignation of a judge of the electoral commission appointed by the Catalan government to monitor the referendum/consultation. Pro-referendum parties met with Artur Mas yesterday at Pedralbes mansion in Barcelona. Mas' allies are quite unhappy with the Catalan premier, who admits that the unity of the 'sovereignist bloc' is "cracked".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/14/inenglish/1413277250_244250.html

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[Velasco]

After the Monday meeting at Pedralbes, ERC advocates for an unilateral declaration of independence made by a new Parliament of Catalonia -which would be the starting point for a "constituent process"- as the only way to push forward the sovereignist process. In the line of Artur Mas' statements yesterday, ERC blames the Spanish government as the main obstacle which made the referendum impossible. However, the pro independence party rejects the proposal of the Catalan premier to call some kind of "survey" instead the projected consultation, because that is not what the pro referendum parties agreed. Oriol Junqueras, the ERC leader, says that his party will continue helping the Artur Mas government, in order to "highlight" the true face of the Spanish government. He took advantage to say that ERC offered to join the government to "protect" or "shield" the referendum, which Mas previously rejected. It is uncertain the continuity of the ERC confidence and supply agreement with CiU, even though Junqueras didn't suggest that his party is going to break it. The Republican Left of Catalonia has been playing to be government and opposition at the same time, as well as pushing forward the pro independence agenda together with the ANC (Catalan National Assembly, its spokeswoman Carme Forcadell is arguably the true leader of the process) and other organisations. Mas, on the other hand, toys with the idea of an election "as a plebiscite", with a pro independence unity ticket preferably topped by himself (made by his CDC party, ERC and other small political organisations). However, the independence drive has rendered electoral benefits to ERC, which won the last EP elections in Catalonia and is on top in the polls for the next Catalan elections. Apparently, there is no way in which Artur Mas can survive, politically speaking.

Joan Herrera, the ICV coordinator, stated that "this participative process" is not the consultation they agreed, just "an agreement reached between Mas and himself". Therefore, ICV-EUiA considers that the pact between the pro referendum parties is concluded.

[Velasco]

Actually, everything points to early elections called as a plebiscite on independence. The issue is that an unilateral declaration of independence after the "plebiscite" divides both CiU and ICV-EUiA. In the the case of the ruling nationalist federation, the minor partner UDC and some CDC moderates wouldn't like such a move, although they have been silent during the whole independence drive process. The dominant discourse is led by ANC and other pro independence organisations, with institutional support from the Generalitat and a majority of the Catalan municipalities. A good example of this is the 'historical' exhibition on the 1714 siege of Barcelona which was the final stage of the War of Spanish Succession, disguising a dynastic conflict as a war between Catalonia and Spain and including a huge senyera (Catalan flag) which is not in the least inferior to the huge Spanish flag planted by the Aznar government in Plaza de Colón, Madrid. The ICV-EUiA base is united on the "right of decide", but divided on independence. "Right to decide" is an euphemism to say right to self-determination, which is applicable in decolonisation processes and not in the present case. However, my opinion is that the "right to decide" exists as long as people has the will to vote on their future, and this is undoubtedly what's happening in Catalonia right now. At least, the "plebiscite" might have the advantage of leaving some ambiguities and euphemisms behind. If the election takes place, it promises to be exciting and in all likelihood there will be a realignment in Catalan politics

.  

[Velasco]

Anyway, back to elections. Would ERC and ICV still hold the referendum or did they just drop it to favor plebiscite leading to unilateral declaration ?

ERC, ICV and the CUP still hold the referendum as it was intended. In any case, ERC, ICV, the CUP and Mas himself have stated that the unity is broken. It's complicated to explain the confusing succession of events in recent days which led to the breaking of the fragile consensus among the pro referendum parties. You should read this article (in Spanish)
http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/dias-convirtio-cosa_0_313569682.html

The header (in English) is illustrative:

Hey Toreador, she signals, we head for the edge, and the first man who jumps is a chicken.

The meaning of the quote -in the context of the article- is that all the parties involved in the referendum knew that it was going to be nearly impossible to hold it, given legal and logistic impediments. Why they carried forward? Because they knew that the first party in jumping out the moving car will come out wounded. There are powerful organisations (the ANC) and social movements behind pushing them forward, as well there is a complex social dynamic and a wide range of dissatisfactions fostering the pro independence feeling. The independence drive has excited millions of Catalans, from hardline nationalists to those thinking that a new independent state is a golden opportunity for political change. To give an example of the last stance, the anti eviction leader Ada Colau says that she's neither nationalist nor a genuine independentista, but she wants a fully independent Catalonia, that is to say: independent from the banks, the Troika and the elites (political and economical). She advocates, as the radical left in Spain does, to break the Regime of 1978, referring to the constitutional pact and the founding pillars of the troubled Spanish democracy. Ada Colau is going to run in the Barcelona municipal elections for the civic movement Guanyem. According to polls and depending on which parties endorse her (Podemos, CUP or ICV), she might come second or third in the race.

As genuine pro independence parties, ERC and CUP back enthusiastically the drive. Also, organisations like ERC or the ANC see independence closer than ever. They don't want to let the prey go: it's now or never and nothing else matters. Artur Mas and CiU got themselves into the moving car; the Catalan premier has been always somewhat reluctant to go as fast as his allies asked him. In other words (excuse me if the simile fails): he's been trying to ride the tiger and at the same time to avoid committing blatant illegalities. As I said before, the ICV-EUiA (and Podemos) bases are united on the referendum but divided on independence, I guess even more if it's declared unilaterally by the Parliament.

Artur Mas calling for early elections "as a plebiscite" is the more likely scenario after November 9, although I might be anticipating events given the volatile and unpredictable context. If the declaration of independence is submitted to the vote in the Parliament of Catalonia, my guess is that ERC, CUP and likely all CDC members would vote affirmatively; ICV-EUiA, UDC (and Podemos) members might be divided; PSC, PP and Cs would vote against.

[Velasco]

Today, the unofficial vote on independence is getting underway. Despite the informal consultation lacks legal backing, it's expected a high turnout in the 942 polling places facilitated by the regional government. Around 40,000 volunteers are assisting the non-binding "participatory process" in which Catalan citizens can voice their opinion. As it happened with the intended official 'consultation', the unofficial "participatory process" was appealed by the Spain's government and subsequently the Constitutional Court proceeded to suspend the new plebiscite. On Friday, the Catalan government stated its commitment to lead the consultation, a day after the justice minister Rafael Catalá said that the Spanish government wouldn't attempt to block the vote as long it wasn't promoted by the Generalitat, and instead delegated on private associations. The Prosecutor's office in Catalonia issued an order to the mossos de escuadra, the regional police, to identify people responsible of the opening of voting centers, as well a list of schools and other publicly owned buildings used in the consultation. A representative of the National Pact for the Right to Decide, which gathers around 3000 groups, told they were ready to take over from the Genaralitat, in the case that the regional government was forced to bow out due to pressure. President Artur Mas told this morning that the unofficial vote should serve to pave the way for a "definitive consultation" which "if possible, should be agreed with the state". Also, Mas played down the threat of legal action against him: "if the prosecutor is seeking someone to blame, it should be me". UPyD filled this morning a lawsuit against Mas for "disobedience and perversion of justice" for having gone ahead with the "participative process" and called public prosecutor to stop it. Catalan premier stated that he's not worried and won't be intimidated.

The informal consultation is taking place normally since 9 AM this morning. Given the legal limbo of the vote, there is not electoral commission, nor electoral roll (people register in the moment they cast their ballots) to ensure a properly monitored process. It's a symbolic vote which reflects the unconventional environment in which Catalan politics is moving in the last times.

Despite the divisions in the pro consultation bloc caused by the decision of president Mas to put forward this informal vote after the suspension of the intended consultation by the Constitutional Court, the Catalan premier ultimately saved the day. The renunciation by the rest of parties to punish the Catalan government for having changed unilaterally the terms of their agreement has allowed CiU saving time. Today's vote lacks democratic guarantees, a debate in depth on the pros and cons of independence and of legal binding. The Mas government didn't take political responsibilities after its independence drive began in 2012, in a context marked by economic crisis and budget cuts. Pro referendum parties and the ANC (Catalan National Assembly) blamed Mas for having redirecting the November 9 referendum; ERC and ANC protested and asked for early elections and the unilateral declaration of independence by a new parliament. However, the attitude of the central government in banning all initiatives, the lack of alternatives in the sovereignist parties to the Constitutional Court ban (calls for "civil disobedience" by the ERC ended apparently in mere rhetoric) and the fear of being deemed as a "discordant note"  have been key to keep unity around this previously unwanted "participatory process". ANC and Òmnium Cultural (another pro independence association) finally backed the vote in exchange for early elections, but at this moment is unclear that Mas is going to call them. 

[Velasco]

As of 1 PM, 1,142,190 people (around 18% of eligible voters) turned out to vote. Turnout in the May EP elections was 25.4% at 2 PM. In the Barcelona metropolitan region turnout is around 15%. Nationalist comarcas ("counties") in the "deep Catalonia" are recording the highest turnouts (between 30% and 35%), while the Val d'Aran (a rather anti nationalist county located in the Pyrenees) has the lowest turnout in the whole Catalonia (8.5%). See interactive map following the link:

http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-participacion-comarca_0_322668045.html

A judge in Barcelona refused a petition by UPyD to remove ballot boxes from the polling places, in considering it a "disproportionate" measure. Mossos d'Esquadra delivered a list of publicly owned facilities, as it was required by the Catalan prosecutor office at the request of the Spain's Public Prosecutor. No major incidents reported.

[Velasco]

At 6 PM 1,977,531 people voted in Catalonia, according to the Generalitat. That figure represents roughly 31.4% of the eligible voters. Given the informal character of this consultation, there is not a proper electoral roll. All residents in Catalonia aged more than 16 are allowed to vote. According to the estimation of the regional government, there are 5.4 million of Spanish citizens and 0.9 million of foreign residents. The Spain's INE (National Institute of Statistics) reflects that "resident population" (Spanish and foreign) is 6,228531, on the basis of municipal registers. With the latter figure turnout at 6 PM is 31.75%. Pro referendum parties consider that it would be a success reaching a 2.1 million turnout, which is the number of votes gathered by those forces in the 2012 Catalan elections. Polls close at 8 PM, so they'll reach that figure. In the referendum to approve the 2006 Statute of Autonomy voters were 2,570, 256 (only Spanish citizens aged more than 18 were eligible).

Catalans abroad are voting as well, while Catalans living in the rest of Spain are not eligible. Tourists and expatriates are queuing to vote at 360 Lexington Square in Manhattan (NYC), where is located the delegation of the Catalan government's HQ. There's another polling place in San José (CA). Registered Catalan residents in the USA are estimated in 7,958.

Reactions in short:

- Ramón de Veciana (UPyD spokesman in Catalonia) accuses Mariano Rajoy of being an accomplice, because the Spain's government has done nothing to prevent the illegal consultation.

- Marina Geli, a former regional minister and member of the catalanist PSC faction, explains that she voted "Yes-Yes" and leaves "the door open to a subsequent confederation" between Catalonia and Spain.

- Joana Ortega (UDC, CiU), the Artur Mas' deputy in the Catalan government, states that "this is a participatory process open to everybody"

- Núria de Gispert (UDC, CiU), speaker of the Catalan Parliament, says this journey "it's a victory" for Catalans and says that voting yes for independence is the only way the rest of Spain notices that there's a lot of people in Catalonia in demand for a change.

- Carme Forcadell (ANC): "We have already won". Whatever happens, the ANC spokeswoman and civic leader of the pro independence side states that having been able to get at this point and defying the Spanish government is a victory.

- David Fernández (CUP): "Democratic tsunami".

- Albert Rivera (Ciutadans): "Fraud". Cs leader thinks that people must avoid falling into the trap of giving legitimacy to this vote: "the only way is that Mas allows us to vote with the real ballots", i.e. calling elections.

- Alicia Sánchez Camacho (PP): "Antidemocratic vote rigging", "massive deceit".

- Joan Herrera (ICV) urges the Spanish government to take note.

- Oriol Junqueras (ERC) reclaims elections "the sooner the better", in order to build an explicit pro independence majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

- Ada Colau (Guanyem) explains via Facebook why she voted "Yes-Yes" to the independence. Despite she's never been interested in "creating new states", the anti eviction leader says that there's "a popular movement in Catalonia reclaiming more and better democracy" and a Spanish government which has taken "an authoritarian and re centralising drive" with PSOE's complicity.

[Velasco]

Provisional results (96.8% reported)

1) Do you want Catalonia to become a state? 2) If so, do you want this state to be independent?

Yes Yes: 1,806,336 (80.76%)

Yes No: 225,659 (10.09%)

Yes Blank: 21,787 (0.97%)

No: 101,601 (4.04%)

Blank ballots: 12,538 (0.56%)

Others: 68,885 (3.08%)

Turnout: 2,236,806 (35.91%)*

_{*Calculated on "resident population" (INE)}

Percentages by vegueria*(Yes Yes, Yes No, No)

Barcelona: 77.57%, 12.48%, 5.24%

Girona: 87.75%, 5.2%, 2.75%

Lleida: 85.55%, 6.51%, 3.3%

Tarragona: 81.82%, 8.03%, 5.2%

Terres de l'Ebre: 85.41%, 5.94%, 3.58%

Catalunya Central: 88.24%, 5.23%, 2.66%

Alt Pirineu i Aran: 84.97%, 6.31%, 3.24%

* _{Administrative division made of several comarcas (counties)}

http://www.participa2014.cat/resultats/dades/ca/escr-tot-resum.html

Turnout may reach around 2,250,000, roughly 36% of Catalan residents.

[Velasco]

Everything I read about this makes it sound like a disaster in the making. How long until the Green Men in unmarked uniforms appear?

This vote was merely symbolic and only useful to measure the strength of independence supporters in Catalonia, as well to defy the Spain's government. While personally I'm very critic of the independence "process", Catalonia is not Crimea and mentions to little green men seem to me out of place.

[Velasco]

The day after the "straw poll" (NYT dixit), which according to Artur mas was "a total success", is lived with different points of view amongst the two parties of the ruling CiU. The coordinator of CDC (Convergència, Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) Josep Rull states that there are two options. The first is that Mariano Rajoy agrees to dialogue within two weeks, on the basis of a letter that Artur Mas will send to the Spanish PM which includes 23 demands on financing, competences, infrastructures, language and culture. Given that Rull deems "remote" the possibility of dialogue, the second option is calling elections "as a plebiscite". Artur Mas wants a pro independence coalition with ERC (Esquerra, Republican Left of Catalonia), a candidatura de país. Such "national list" should be based on a single point agenda: independence. Even though ERC rejects the proposition, Rull says that "apparently impossible things end being possible", putting this "consultation" as example.

The UDC (Unió, Democratic Union of Catalonia) doesn't share this point of view. Ramon Espalder, secretary general of Unió, thinks that now is "time to govern" instead of calling elections.

For her part, ERC secretary general Marta Rovira reclaims "constituent elections" to achieve independence without delay. ERC claims that an agreement with CiU is possible after the elections, in order to constitute a concentration government which starts a constituent process, led by political institutions and backed by social entities, with the aim of building a new state. ERC is ready to dialogue with those forces which "put on the table a project to build the independence of our country". Rovira considers the vote as a "round victory" for independence and states that the way to a referendum is exhausted. Artur Mas said he'll work a "definitive consultation", a true referendum agreed with the Spanish government. ERC spokeswoman stated clearly that her party rejects that way, arguing that the central government rejected "16 times" previous demands from Catalonia.

Minister of Justice Rafael Catalá told yesterday that vote was an "useless and sterile" act of political propaganda orchestrated by the Artur Mas government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/10/world/europe/catalans-vote-in-straw-poll-on-independence-from-spain.html?ref=europe&_r=0

PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez urged Rajoy from Barcelona this morning -where he met with the current leader of PSC Miquel Iceta- to start a constitutional reform to solve the role of Catalonia in Spain and to regenerate political life. Sánchez reclaims Rajoy not hiding behind courts as the sole argument of debate and leaving inflexibility, as well asks the Generalitat to acknowledge the failure of policies based on opposite contraries ("frentismo"). The socialist leader says he respects the mobilisation of independence supporters, as well the Catalans who didn't vote (2.25 million voted and 4 million abstained). In his opinion, the latter preferred stay at home because considered the solution cannot come from an "unilateral consultation without the minimum democratic guarantees".

Here, the "seven keys to understand November 9" in the opinion of Josep Carles Rius:

http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/opinions/claves-entender_6_322727747.html

Given that the analysis is in Spanish, summary.

1) Turnout reached more than 2 million of votes, which was the necessary threshold to re-validate the strength of the pro independence parties in the Parliament of Catalonia, which currently enjoy a majority. It's enough to demonstrate that desire for independence remains and to hold the challenge to the Spanish state. Results show that pro independence parties retain political hegemony, the centrality which historically belonged to catalanism, but also show that there's not social consensus on independence. It'd be premature to think that independence supporters have enough strength to undertake unilateral initiatives.

2) Symbolism: a consultation without full guarantees and lacking of international recognition might be interpreted as a way to "burn" the possibility of a real referendum. The author is surprised by the lack of moderation from political leaders, some media in Catalonia presented the "participatory process" as it was the previously intended referendum (or consultation).

3) Yesterday's journey was a clear act of civil and political disobedience against the Spanish state. Rajoy's government had the option of turning a blind eye; when he decided to appeal to the Court, the "participatory process" was outside the law. Catalonia has crossed a line and it might have relevance in the future.

4) During the journey, media recorded countless testimonies talking of "illusion" and "dignity". The sentimental element has a key role in the independence movement, and is seen with incomprehension in the rest of Spain. As well, the will of Catalans to be recognised as a nation is rejected by the main political forces in Spain.  

5) The journey was an example of civicism. It was peaceful and civilised as previous massive demonstrations and sends a clear message of political will to the international community. Civicism prevails in the streets, although there are examples of intolerance in social networks.

6) The independence movement keeps the demand of the "right to decide", but the focus will be on the elections "as a plebiscite" in which CiU and ERC will fight for the hegemony in Catalan nationalism. The federal "third way" beyond the PSC must begin to take shape. Parties like ICV and UDC face internal divisions on independence. ICV and the pro independence CUP have to face as well the coming earthquake represented by Podemos.

7) Artur Mas emerges strengthened because more than 2 millions of Catalans turned out in the symbolic "participatory process", overcoming the division in the pro independence side and retaking political initiative. He has to decide on trying a dialogue with the Spanish government or calling elections. On following dates, it will be seen if there exists a way to negotiate with Rajoy and to establish alliances until the end of term in 2016.
 

[Velasco]

Conservative hardliners in PP and related opinion makers blame Rajoy for his "inaction" and "tolerance" towards the "alternative consultation". Such criticism spreads to parties like UPyD and Vox. As well from the anti nationalist group of intellectuals and journalists Libres e Iguales ("Free and Equal"), which includes intellectuals like Nobel Prize Mario Vargas Llosa, journalists, and politicians (retired and active). PP deputy Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo twitted that she felt "defenceless" and made public yesterday the Libres e Iguales hard press release, accusing the Rajoy government of observing passively the events and culpably ignoring its first duty: to comply and make comply the Constitution. Also points that the Generalitat "has exhibited the subjugation of the rule of law as a political victory" and stresses the "undermining of the State", as well the "legal helplessness" and the "political neglect" in which the citizens have been left by the government's "neglect of duties". As an example of the internal tension and the dilemma raised within PP, EP spokesman Esteban González Pons praised Rajoy for "defusing the political bomb" put by Mas, while at the same time urges the Public Prosecutor to act.

It's remarkable the apparent political victory achieved by Mas, when the informal "participatory process" only recorded a 36% turnout. Columnist Ernesto Ekaizer points that credit is due to the Catalan premier for his formal coherence. Mas promised that people would vote on November 9 and, at the same time, said that he wouldn't go ahead with an illegal referendum. When the Constitutional Court prevented the "formally legal" referendum, pulled the "participatory process" out of the hat. Rajoy was incoherent because he said the new "consultation" wasn't a referendum, but finally appealed to the Court and obtained its suspension. Mas didn't go back with the "participatory process" and Rajoy fell in incoherence by not preventing it, despite the court's suspension. It's just another sample of astute behaviour by Catalan nationalism, opposite to another political mistake (the new appeal) made by the Spanish government. To be fair, turning a blind eye would have brought loads of pressure on Rajoy from his hardliners, but Mas was also pressed by his political allies. Catalan nationalism has recorded many semantic victories through this "process".

Podemos, on the other hand, remains silent to date and keeping a (wise) low profile. There are different points of view inside the new sensation of Spanish politics. Podemos supports the "right to decide", but Pablo Iglesias has stated he would not like the independence of Catalonia. There is a sizeable, albeit is not a majority, sovereignist faction in the Catalan Podemos circles. Podemos can get a balance because its main focus is not in the "national" agenda. Former anti-corruption prosecutor Carlos Jiménez Villarejo lives in Catalonia and notably prosecuted the Banca Catalana case back in the 80s against patriarch Jordi Pujol, Catalan premier from 1980 to 2003 and nowadays involved with his family in a major tax fraud scandal. The veteran lawyer deemed the "consultation" as "illegal" and "antidemocratic". Jiménez Villarejo was elected MEP in the May elections -renounced later due to his old age- is one of the main referential figures in Podemos and the sponsor of the party's anti-corruption platform. However, the most extended position in Podemos is the one held by Íñigo Errejón (the Podemos' political strategist) and Gemma Ubasart in an opinion article defending the holding of the consultation. They advocate for "more democracy" and a "new chessboard", assuring that  "in a plurinational state, only agreement and seduction should be the glue to rebuild bridges".

[Velasco]

The OutCome was expectable, but a TurnOut of 36% is surprisingly weak.

Yes, but keep in mind that it was an informal "electoral-type event". Still, it appears to be some kind of qualitative (tactic and semantic, read previous post) victory for Mas and the Catalan nationalism. I'd say that there's not still a majority backing independence. However the snowball will grow eventually, unless some appealing political initiative is undertaken by whatever Spanish government is in office after 2015 elections.

[Velasco]

Results by comarca ("county"). Left: % turnout on census. Right: % "Yes-Yes" vote on census*

_{*Catalan residents (Spanish and foreign) aged 16 or more.}

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy broke silence this morning to say the "participatory process" was a failure and he will not negotiate a legal binding referendum with Artur Mas.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/11/12/inenglish/1415800929_554859.html

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In reply to criticism from PP hardliners, UPyD and the Vox party, Rajoy claimed the government  "has defended the law and has adopted a sensible and adequate stance". He also rejected complaints by state prosecutors on the alleged meddling of Madrid's government in the Catalan vote case, in order to speed up legal actions against the government of Catalonia. "I am not in a position to tell it what it has to do," he said. "I have to respect the decision of the public prosecutor and of the judiciary because if I didn’t, we would not be going down the right path. Believe me when I say I do not know if they are going to file a complaint. I have given no instructions in this sense".

Rajoy's apperance before the media was preceded yesterday by a hard-toned intervention of Deputy PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría in the Senate. She made clear neither the government nor PP will give their vote for a "secession agreement".

Yesterday, Catalan premier Artur Mas asked for "permanent dialogue" with Rajoy to find a "politic way out" and the way to hold the "final consultation", that is to say a legal referendum. Trying to keep the momentum he enjoys after the Sunday's informal vote, Mas didn't give clues on early elections and stated that people must not confound goals (referendum on independence) with tools. In a parliamentary appearance today, Mas said if the prosecutor's office acts against him and other members of the Catalan government, it might give a "dramatic picture" of Spain. ERC deems to have concluded the parliamentary agreement (confidence and supply) with CiU and calls for the beginning of a "new stage", whose roadmap detailed Oriol Junqueras today. ERC rejects the joint list proposed by Artur Mas (candidatura de país) but proposes a common platform ("Catalan alliance") based on independence, full employment, social compromise and eradication of corruption.