IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Says an awful lot about Braley.

[IceSpear]

Damn, that sucks. But some of you are overreacting. The election is in 5 weeks, not tomorrow. There's still plenty of time for Braley to turn it around. Granted, that may be giving him a bit too much credit considering his horrible campaign.

[KCDem]

Is it just me, or are there many undecideds?

[Maxwell]

Is it just me, or are there many undecideds?

There are a lot more undecideds than I expected from a gold standard poll, actually, yes. But still, gold standard polling institute shall not be ignored.

[Maxwell]

Braley should have nuked Ernst in July, August, September for being an insane lady, like Reid did with Angle. Dumb midwestern cow-loving coward f[inks]ed this up.

lol. The funny thing about it, Braley's faults are because he wasn't ENOUGH of a Midwestern, cow-loving dummy. Attacking Joni Ernst on the policy is a decent strategy, but people resonate more with personalities, and Braley has proven to be a toxic personality.

[njwes]

Looks like Mississippi isn't going to be America's #1 punchline state much longer. Hooray!

.....I wouldn't count on it--and this coming from a New Jerseyan

This is good news, though there are still a surprisingly high number of undecideds so it could go either way. All other things being equal tho, I'd imagine that Braley's best shot at this point is a major gaffe on Ernst's part. And there are 3 debates (first one tonight!) so that could easily be in the cards.

[KCDem]

Anyone pulling for Ernst should be embarrassed.

[Tender Branson]

6% vote for others and 12% are still undecided at this stage.

Considering 3rd party candidates won't get more than 2% on election day, ca. 16% are still undecided.

That's really a lot for End-September.

Braley has a 42-42 favorable rating, Ernst is at 45-44.

While Braley is a terribly flawed candidate, I still don't really think this is over - also because the absentee ballot numbers requested so far are pretty good for Democrats. The ground game is showing a different story than the polls right now.

Also, we should not forget that while Selzer is a great pollster, they had Branstad winning by almost 20 points in late September 2010, when he actually won by just 10 points on election day.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, yes. The undecideds are high... but I get the feeling the undecideds are going to be high in this race for a while to come. Neither are exactly exciting candidates.

I don't think this race is over, at all...

[Panda Express]

Braley should have nuked Ernst in July, August, September for being an insane lady, like Reid did with Angle. Dumb midwestern cow-loving coward f[inks]ed this up.

lol. The funny thing about it, Braley's faults are because he wasn't ENOUGH of a Midwestern, cow-loving dummy. Attacking Joni Ernst on the policy is a decent strategy, but people resonate more with personalities, and Braley has proven to be a toxic personality.

True. In America, a George W.Bush candidate trumps a John Kerry candidate

[Senator Cris]

This race will be very close.
I don't know who will win.

[Free Bird]

Someone get me an address. Need to send the good Congressman a Christmas card this year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God.

[RogueBeaver]

DSCC just released a 42/42 internal to Politico.

[Antonio the Sixth]

DSCC just released a 42/42 internal to Politico.

this

is

bad

[MalaspinaGold]

in that DSCC poll, they surveyed 40% registered republicans to 36% registered democrats. Does anyone know the normal breakdown in Iowa?

Other than that, second Antonio V

[DrScholl]

At R+4, I wouldn't consider that poll to be faked or weighed to give an overly favorable result. If Ernst is only tied on an R+4 sample, then this race is clearly not over.

[Mogrovejo]

It was 33/33/34 in 2012 and 35/31/34 in 2010 (R/D/I).

Braley needs to take advantage of the debates. He's a trial lawyer, after all. Barring that, Ernst is probably building a decisive gap. She's just a better politician.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expected this, given the desparity on Branstand margin. But Udall is in a similar spot. NC is a leafing indicator on our purple states. If the GOP dont win there, I think we sweep the purple states.

[KCDem]

#Demsindisarray
#Republicanwave
#PresidentCruz

[7,052,770]

Braley better lay a bunch of gotcha traps in the debates -- Ernst will easily fall for them. He needs to get her spouting off about Agenda 21 or whatever those types salivate over.

Hopefully at least some of the moderators can help him in this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Mississippi isn't going to be America's #1 punchline state much longer. Hooray!

You wish

[ElectionsGuy]

Braley is destroying himself. If he can't get within margin of error before Nov. 4th, this seat is flipped.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expected this, given the desparity on Branstand margin. But Udall is in a similar spot. NC is a leafing indicator on our purple states. If the GOP dont win there, I think we sweep the purple states.

NC has a lot of contingencies that solely apply to it, like the fact that the GOP candidate is the Speaker of a rather unpopular state legislative chamber that has been at the forefront of an aggressive and controversial partisan agenda the past four years. It is hard to label an individual race in such a fashion. General leans and waves and such matter, but that is not the whole affair as we have seen in many races where candidate quality changed the whole trajectory of a race and made what should have been competitive, not. Maine 2008 and Missouri 2012 are good examples of that in effect.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Selzer & Co on 2014-09-24

Summary: D: 38%, R: 44%, I: 6%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details