Ernst got caught in a lie about cap-and-trade hurting Iowa by making energy more expensive. The problem with that claim is that it has never been enacted and is unlikely to be enacted any time soon. Not until the Democrats get the House back (at least 2016) is there any chance of that.
Until I see otherwise, this race is lean R... but I have seen plenty of Republican campaigns implode over stupid stuff.
How true is it that parties that are unpopular are actually losing races they should win? It could simply be that "scandals" are an excuse than a reason.