Senate control

[GaussLaw]

Again, in light of recent events.

IMO:  Republicans, but barely
Pickups:  Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Iowa (changed because of Quinnipiac/Selzer)
Loss:  Kansas (not sure, need more polls here)
Tossup:  Colorado (mostly because Vote by Mail has varying effects on polling with Oregon/Washington)

Democratic holds:  North Carolina, New Hampshire, all the other current seats held

[tmthforu94]

At this point I'm starting to feel more confident in a GOP Senate majority. I see Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Iowa, and Alaska all looking like pickups, so even if Republicans botch things in Kansas they will still have 51.

[KCDem]

Democrats easily.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A decent part of the odds depends on how Orman caucuses in a 50 Republican Senate. A lot of people think he'd join the Democrats, but I'm not so sure, since they clearly wouldn't be the majority without him.

[Franzl]

I'd say odds are about 60-40 for a GOP majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd say odds are about 60-40 for a GOP majority.

Yeah, I've always held out the belief that Dems would prevail in the end, but now it really seems the GOP is favored.

[Free Bird]

Democrats easily.

[SWE]

58% chance of Republicans taking over

[Tender Branson]

The GOP is favoured right now to take it, but it's still too early to be 100% sure.

I would still wait on the final weeks when the Democrats will launch most of their ads and the ground game.

[KCDem]

Democrats easily.

Go back to your failed state.

[Panda Express]

Obama is going to be vetoing a lot of stupid bills for the next two years

[IceSpear]

Obama is going to be vetoing a lot of stupid bills for the next two years

Nah, they'll be filibustered first. Unless we're lucky enough for the GOP to nuke it just in time for the Dems to retake the Senate in 2016.

Anyway, for the first time ever I voted Republicans in this poll, as AK/CO/IA have clearly moved toward them in the past couple weeks. NC has moved away, but that's not enough to counteract those three.

[Dixie Reborn]

Democrats easily.

Go back to your failed state.

He's from Connecticut. It's a Democrat state.

[GaussLaw]

Dang.  One Selzer poll and Atlas completely does a 180 on this poll.  I admit I was a bit harsh and argued the forum had a liberal bias, but I retract that now.

[Miles]

My thinking was that Democrats would need to win the Obama states plus NC and then get Orman to caucus with them. Then they could afford to lose AK/LA/AR in that case (not that I want them to lose those races, but just from a purely numerical standpoint).

Braley losing kinda screws that up though...

[KCDem]

It's now not a question of whether Republicans win control, it's a question of how big their majority will be. Can they get a filibuster proof majority? Maybe a veto-proof one?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I think Dems will hold in if and only if Braley goes Tsar Bomba-level nuclear on Ernst and retakes the lead (it's not like there's any shortage of material to use for this), but otherwise Dems will lose IA and with it the Senate.

[Consciously Unconscious]

It's now not a question of whether Republicans win control, it's a question of how big their majority will be. Can they get a filibuster proof majority? Maybe a veto-proof one?

I honestly think a veto-proof majority is in the cards.  We have all the toss ups locked up (which includes Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Virginia.  Plus we have a really good shot in Illinois, New Mexico, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.  The states aren't being polled, and the ones that are polling are lying.  Also  Rhode Island and Delaware are toss ups, lean D at the most.  So we can win those easily.  We can definitely win a veto proof majority. 

[Free Bird]

Dang.  One Selzer poll and Atlas completely does a 180 on this poll.  I admit I was a bit harsh and argued the forum had a liberal bias, but I retract that now.

Oh there are still more liberals

[The Mikado]

I'm expecting Dems to pull out Iowa in the end, but even so, losing SD, MT, WV, AR, AK, and LA is a GOP majority anyway.

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans should pick up anywhere from 5-9 seats, control is tilting in republican favor now.

[SteveRogers]

It's now not a question of whether Republicans win control, it's a question of how big their majority will be. Can they get a filibuster proof majority? Maybe a veto-proof one?

I honestly think a veto-proof majority is in the cards.  We have all the toss ups locked up (which includes Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Virginia.  Plus we have a really good shot in Illinois, New Mexico, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.  The states aren't being polled, and the ones that are polling are lying.  Also  Rhode Island and Delaware are toss ups, lean D at the most.  So we can win those easily.  We can definitely win a veto proof majority. 

What on earth are either of you talking about?

[Flake]

At the moment I believe Republicans are more likely to take the Senate because of damn Braley.

[Torie]

The Dems are probably trying to figure out how to keep the losses down to "merely" six at the moment. You know what the Chinese consider the luckiest number don't you? Yep, eight, and the Chinese are slowly taking over the planet. Heck, a Chinese photographer just bought the old Polish Catholic church at the end of my block to display his work. They're coming!

[Frodo]

You know what the Chinese consider the luckiest number don't you? Yep, eight, and the Chinese are slowly taking over the planet. Heck, a Chinese photographer just bought the old Polish Catholic church at the end of my block to display his work. They're coming!

You mean like the Japanese in the 1980s?