The Orman and 50 Republican Senators scenario

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Well?

[tpfkaw]

From the "With Which Party Will You Caucus?" section of his campaign site:

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I'd say that's a pretty clear dog-whistle that he'd rather caucus with the Democrats.

[Mogrovejo]

I have a hard time seeing him killing his Senatorial career in the crib by being the vote that kept Harry Reid as the majority leader. Maybe if he's already ruled out running for re-election. I think he'd personally prefer to caucus with the Dems, but in this scenario I think he'll try to paint himself as the Murkowsky from Kansas.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I have a hard time seeing him killing his Senatorial career in the crib by being the vote that kept Harry Reid as the majority leader. Maybe if he's already ruled out running for re-election. I think he'd personally prefer to caucus with the Dems, but in this scenario I think he'll try to paint himself as the Murkowsky from Kansas.

To be fair, it'll probably be nearly impossible for him to get reelected even if he caucuses with the Republicans. A random Republican congresscritter will come barreling out of the R primary and knock him out by being more conservative, yet not insane like a Brownback/Buck/Angle type.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Angus King approach. Reid or Biden will approah him in like matter.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I have a hard time seeing him killing his Senatorial career in the crib by being the vote that kept Harry Reid as the majority leader. Maybe if he's already ruled out running for re-election. I think he'd personally prefer to caucus with the Dems, but in this scenario I think he'll try to paint himself as the Murkowsky from Kansas.

Why are you so cruel? Nobody should be trying to paint themselves as the Murkowski of anything. Hopefully we will fix that in 2016.

I have a hard time seeing him killing his Senatorial career in the crib by being the vote that kept Harry Reid as the majority leader. Maybe if he's already ruled out running for re-election. I think he'd personally prefer to caucus with the Dems, but in this scenario I think he'll try to paint himself as the Murkowsky from Kansas.

To be fair, it'll probably be nearly impossible for him to get reelected even if he caucuses with the Republicans. A random Republican congresscritter will come barreling out of the R primary and knock him out by being more conservative, yet not insane like a Brownback/Buck/Angle type.

Roberts is actually a good senator, he just dropped the ball in this election. Certainly compared to the alternatives when you look at the bench in Kansas. I mean if Roberts loses, Brownback is certainly finished too. Both of Kansas' Senators are from KS-01 (Jerry Moran will probably get 65%-70% in 2016) largely because many of the others whilst large in number are of horrible quality.

KS-01 today has the Kansas Ted Cruz, so that talent pool has dried up. KS -02 has Lynn "Great White Knight" Jenkins and she would likely struggle in a primary against a Huelskamp. KS-03 has a dude that is good at winning but likes to strip and go swimming where he shouldn't. And KS-04 has Mike Pompeo, who of the choices is the least bad and that says a lot considering his issues. Todd Tiahrt is through at this point and he is too close to big oil for my tastes.

[Torie]

Pubs, if he wants to serve more than one term.

[tmthforu94]

This is likely a one-term proposition regardless. There is almost no chance the GOP will nominate him in 2018 - they will have a pretty strong bench of candidates eyeing this seat. His best bet going forward would be to caucus with the Democrats, hope that Brownback is re-elected and a Republican wins the Presidency in 2016. Then hope that a national wave + local disappointment in Brownback could lead him to another narrow victory.

[7,052,770]

Doesn't everyone in Kansas who cares know that he's the de facto Democratic candidate anyway?

I don't see how him doing something that everyone expects him to do in January 2015 is going to have much play in November 2020.

Having said that, I would be on him losing reelection in 2020 regardless, simply due to "state fundamentals" and all that.

[Torie]

This is likely a one-term proposition regardless. There is almost no chance the GOP will nominate him in 2018 - they will have a pretty strong bench of candidates eyeing this seat. His best bet going forward would be to caucus with the Democrats, hope that Brownback is re-elected and a Republican wins the Presidency in 2016. Then hope that a national wave + local disappointment in Brownback could lead him to another narrow victory.

I don't know. Kansas not that long ago used to be kind to moderate Pubs, and just how is Orman one who would not fit into that club?  Yes, sure, Kansas has Brownback now, but still, it has its more moderate and understated wing, when it comes to partisan antics at least.

[Lief 🗽]

This is likely a one-term proposition regardless. There is almost no chance the GOP will nominate him in 2018 - they will have a pretty strong bench of candidates eyeing this seat. His best bet going forward would be to caucus with the Democrats, hope that Brownback is re-elected and a Republican wins the Presidency in 2016. Then hope that a national wave + local disappointment in Brownback could lead him to another narrow victory.

I don't know. Kansas not that long ago used to be kind to moderate Pubs, and just how is Orman one who would not fit into that club?  Yes, sure, Kansas has Brownback now, but still, it has its more moderate and understated wing, when it comes to partisan antics at least.

Yes, and these people will be voting for Orman and Davis this year, just as they did Sebelius in her two elections.

He's not going to be nominated by the Republicans in 2020. The rabid right-wing base in the state would never stand for it. At least he'll be supported by the Democrats in 2020 if he wants to run for re-election.

[Mogrovejo]

I have a hard time seeing him killing his Senatorial career in the crib by being the vote that kept Harry Reid as the majority leader. Maybe if he's already ruled out running for re-election. I think he'd personally prefer to caucus with the Dems, but in this scenario I think he'll try to paint himself as the Murkowsky from Kansas.

To be fair, it'll probably be nearly impossible for him to get reelected even if he caucuses with the Republicans. A random Republican congresscritter will come barreling out of the R primary and knock him out by being more conservative, yet not insane like a Brownback/Buck/Angle type.

Agreed, I don't think he has a chance in a GOP primary, even if he caucus with Republicans. Unless he'd somehow become a conservative hero, but that's just implausible and would be too weird for him.

As the saying goes, Kansas is a three parties state. So I think his best (only?) chance of being re-elected is by running for the party in the middle. Caucus with Republicans, build a very centrist and moderate voting record and run again as an Independent with an electoral base of moderate Republicans and syphoning votes from Democrats who want to stop that conservative GOP nominee from winning. A bleak path but likely better than any of the alternatives.

Then again, maybe he'll just see re-election as too much trouble, go with his instincts and hope for the best (a position on a Democrat Administration/embassy?).

[© tweed]

Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told KSHB-TV that Orman will not be allowed to caucus with Republicans if he wins: "He's not gonna do that. It is an impossibility. It is not possible."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/09/roberts_says_orman_is_lying.html

[Mehmentum]

Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told KSHB-TV that Orman will not be allowed to caucus with Republicans if he wins: "He's not gonna do that. It is an impossibility. It is not possible."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/09/roberts_says_orman_is_lying.html

That's hilarious.  In a hypothetical scenario where Republicans have 50 Senators and need Orman, they're going to say 'F*** it! We don't want control of the senate if it means we have to caucus with this guy!'

Wow. 

[Dixie Reborn]

Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told KSHB-TV that Orman will not be allowed to caucus with Republicans if he wins: "He's not gonna do that. It is an impossibility. It is not possible."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/09/roberts_says_orman_is_lying.html

Once again, we see the Stupid Party in action.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told KSHB-TV that Orman will not be allowed to caucus with Republicans if he wins: "He's not gonna do that. It is an impossibility. It is not possible."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/09/roberts_says_orman_is_lying.html

That's hilarious.  In a hypothetical scenario where Republicans have 50 Senators and need Orman, they're going to say 'F*** it! We don't want control of the senate if it means we have to caucus with this guy!'

Wow. 

They wouldn't say this if anyone thought there was a snowball's chance in hell Orman could be convinced to caucus with the Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told KSHB-TV that Orman will not be allowed to caucus with Republicans if he wins: "He's not gonna do that. It is an impossibility. It is not possible."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/09/roberts_says_orman_is_lying.html

That's hilarious.  In a hypothetical scenario where Republicans have 50 Senators and need Orman, they're going to say 'F*** it! We don't want control of the senate if it means we have to caucus with this guy!'

Wow. 

Ignoring that for a second, even if the GOP takes the Senate without Orman caucusing with them, they're going to need every seat they can muster for probable losses in 2016, and Orman could end up being pivotal again. Priebus is a dunce.

[tmthforu94]

From that quote it doesn't look like he's saying the GOP wouldn't want him to. They just don't think he will.

[Nichlemn]

It's probably good optics for the GOP to say this, if they're trying to paint Orman as a "liberal Democrat in disguise".

[Miles]

FWIW, Bloomberg and Soros may help Orman.

[tmthforu94]

FWIW, Bloomberg and Soros may help Orman.

Yeah, I don't see that going over well, especially Bloomberg.

[IceSpear]

FWIW, Bloomberg and Soros may help Orman.

Uh, no thanks guys. If you want to help, do it through some shadowy Super PAC like the GOP donors do.

[Maxwell]

Orman is way too beholden to the Democrats to not caucus with them, obviously.