Preliminary 2016 Senate Race Rankings - No Tossups

[Free Bird]

Dems get Illinois due to high Chicago turnout (Senate needs a new candy man) and maybe Wisconsin if Feingold runs, and assuming Sandoval runs, Reps get Nevada and maybe Colorado if it is a good night with Paul also on the ballot, for D+1 (or even) but still Rep majority

Now to await the flame war

[Free Bird]

Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

[Free Bird]

Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

Nearly every incumbent holds their own in early polls.

Then why are we quick to call them gonners? I get that their states are left leaning, but Heitkamp won when her state went overwhelmingly red? Or why did Brown only lose by high singles when MA went overwhelmingly blue? I'm pretty sure Toomey and Kirk are what loons would call RINOs, so moderacy is no issue. And who is to say that those early polls aren't genuine strength?

[Free Bird]

Since you said no toss ups, I put "tilt" ratings where I would normally put toss ups.

Alaska: Likely R - Since Murkowski will actually be on the ballot next time, it's hard to see her losing, but in a potential three way race it could be possible.
Arizona: Lean R - If McCain doesn't retire, he'd get beaten in the primary anyway.
Arkansas: Lean R - If Mike Beebe runs it's tilt D. But if he doesn't it's likely R. So I split the difference.
Colorado: Tilt D - What happens with Udall this year will speak volumes for Bennet. Fortunately for Bennet, he will benefit from presidential year turnout.
Florida: Tilt R - Lean R if Rubio doesn't run for president, but it's looking like he will.
Georgia: Lean R - Likely R if Isakson runs, tilt R if he retires and Dems get Nunn to run again.
Illinois: Lean D takeover - Hard to see how Kirk survives considering he barely beat a horrible opponent in a GOP wave year. He has no groundswell of popularity, he got hammered for lying about his war record in 2010 and won clearly as the lesser of two evils, not as an above the fray moderate. That said, Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here by nominating another horrible candidate (it's Illinois after all).
Indiana: Lean R - Coats could retire, even if he doesn't it's possible he could be beaten. Ellsworth would've given him a tough race in a non wave year.
Iowa: Likely R - Assuming Grassley doesn't change his mind. If he retires, tilt D.
Kentucky: Likely R - Whether or not Paul runs for president. Though Steve Beshear running would make it tilt R.
Louisiana: Likely R - Too much in flux here to say anything, but Dems have slim odds.
Missouri: Tilt D takeover - Roy Blunt is not popular at all, and Hillary should do much better here than Obama. It feels weird putting it as tilt D, but yeah, no toss ups.
Nevada: Tilt D - So much depends on who runs. Democrats would be best without Reid, and Sandoval would put the Republicans in control if he ran (lean R minimum). In generic D vs. generic R, the Democrat has the edge though.
New Hampshire: Tilt R - This will be hotly contested, but NH is quirky enough that Ayotte could survive even in a good Dem year.
North Carolina: Tilt R - I think Burr survives by the skin of his teeth, even if Hillary narrowly wins the state.
Ohio: Lean R - Portman could be primaried, which would make this tilt...R I guess? This race should be competitive, but Portman starts with the edge.
Oregon: Likely D - Safe if Wyden runs for re-election.
Pennsylvania: Tilt D takeover -  Toomey will be in huge trouble during a presidential year with higher turnout. Since I have to pick a winner, I'm giving it to Sestak by the skin of his teeth.
Wisconsin: Lean D takeover - Johnson will probably be a one termer. He's done basically nothing he needs to do to get re-elected in a blue state. His only hope is another Republican wave dragging him over the finish line or a crappy opponent.

Everything else is safe. Overall net seats is D+4.

Specter survived in 2004 and 1992 when PA went Dem. What's the difference? And Kirk is shown to be able to hold his own based on early polls.

Nearly every incumbent holds their own in early polls.

Then why are we quick to call them gonners? I get that their states are left leaning, but Heitkamp won when her state went overwhelmingly red? Or why did Brown only lose by high singles when MA went overwhelmingly blue? I'm pretty sure Toomey and Kirk are what loons would call RINOs, so moderacy is no issue. And who is to say that those early polls aren't genuine strength?

We call Johnson a goner because he has been trailing significantly in early polling with a Feingold rematch. And everyone saw how Presidential year Wisconsin came home to Baldwin in 2012.

The only moderate cred Toomey has is SSM and Manchin-Toomey, which won't mean anything by 2016. He won by 3 points in a midterm year. Take Landrieu, an incumbent in an unfriendly state who was polling +10 through all of 2013 in a head to head with Cassidy. I think PPP had Toomey trailing Kane, and barely ahead of Sestak. Pennsylvania should go Democratic by 5-7 points in 2016, so I'd expect Toomey to lose by 3-5.

I don't think any polling has really been done on Kirk 2016 except the PPP back in 2013 showing him tied with Madigan. He eeked out a less than 2 point win in 2010. Don't expect Cook County to let that happen again. A tied race this far out is not holding your own in early polls.

To be fair, everyone thought Berg would win in 2012. He proved to be a crappy candidate, and Heitkamp barely scraped by.

Of course Obama was going to run ahead of Brown in MA. The Dem (can we just say Hillary now?) will win by a larger margin than Kirk, Johnson, Toomey, and probably Ayotte, even though all four of those candidates may very well win their races still. I believe the technical term is "muh incumbency."

Here's the thing. If Feingold ran and the GOP had a seat to spare, then welcome back. Otherwise, I think Johnson can hang on. However, I think that the Dems will pour a lot of money into Nevada, diluting attention away from everywhere else. And no, we can't say Hillary. At least wait for an announcement, because we will look really stupid otherwise.

[Free Bird]

The question is, who will be the new Candy Desk Man if Kirk loses?

[Free Bird]

The question is, who will be the new Candy Desk Man if Kirk loses?

It's on the Republican side in the back row on the first aisle?

Probably a first termer that gets elected either this year or in 2016 will move in.

Is there any good candy from Nevada?

[Free Bird]

I'm going to include the Gubernatorial Elections here as well, since it's an off year for those.

UtahSafe R

Even if Jim Matheson runs or incumbent Gary Herbert is beaten in the GOP primary (Outgoing State House Speaker Rebecca Lockhart, or former Governor/Ambassador Jon Huntsman come to mind) the Democrats can't win statewide here.

New Hampshire Likely D

If Maggie Hassan runs for re-election, she's a lock, and if she goes for a tempting Senate Race, Democrats start favored.

VermontSafe D
Unless an act of God happens to Peter Shumlin, he will win re-election.

IndianaLean R
While Mike Pence may run for President, this seat is safe for him if he doesn't, and if he does, Democrats (Hammond Mayor, Thomas McDermott Jr, Gary Mayor Karen-Wilson Freeman and Congressman Andre Carson come to mind) start in a weaker position than the GOP (Congresswoman Jackie Walorski, House Speaker Brian Bosma, or Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellsperman would all become possible candidates)

North DakotaSafe R
The only way this race becomes competitive is if Heidi Heitkamp runs for the Democrats. Even then it likely won't be enough

North Carolina Tilt D
While Pat McCrory certainly can (and should) win with President Obama not on the ballot, he faces several strong opponents (Roy Cooper, Anthony Foxx and Charles Meeker)

Washington Likely D
If Jay Inslee retires (He'll be 65 in 2016) that leaves the door ajar for Republicans, who do have a decent bench here (Jamie Herrera Buetler, Cathy McMorris Rodgers and State Senator Steve Litzow).

Montana Tilt R
Montana in a Presidential year is more likely to go Republican no matter who is atop the ballot. Still, this is the closest to a tossup the Governors races will get.

West Virginia (Earl Ray Tomblin Term-Limited) Safe R
West Virginia has turned Republican quite rapidly, and Democrats have to pray that Joe Manchin doesn't run for old job.

Missouri (Nixon Term-Limited) Lean R
If Claire McCaskill runs, the Democrats probably win, but anyone else gives the GOP a big head start.

Delaware (Markell Term-Limited) Safe D
I think it's safe to say Beau Biden deciding he would run sealed it.

Senate Races

Alabama Safe R
I'll be surprised if Shelby even draws an opponent

Alaska Lean R
The Democrats best chance is if Murkowski runs (or Sarah Palin somehow winds up as the nominee), and it's a three-way race like in 2010, but their best hope of having another Senate seat here will likely be to convince Murkowski to switch parties.

Arizona Tilt D
If John McCain runs, Democrats win, If he doesn't (which is more likely) it's basically a tossup (assuming Democrats are able to recruit Richard Carmona or Kyrsten Simena)

Arkansas Safe R
Even if Mike Bebee runs (which he won't), this will be a rout.

California Safe D
Boxer's retirement will set off a free-for-all on the Democratic side of the race, so don't expect a Republican in the top-two this time.

Colorado Lean D
Michael Bennett easily could, be vulnerable, but the GOP bench in Colorado is non-existent.

Connecticut Lean D
See Colorado

Florida Tilt D
If Marco Rubio runs for President, this seat is as good as gone, while if he runs for re-election, he will face a tough opponent in the General Election (and possibly Allen West in the primary)

Georgia Lean R
Democrats will put up fight against Johnny Isakson, but a Presidential year, with a perennial Republican boogeyman atop the ballot in Hillary Clinton should save Isakson here.

Hawaii Safe D
Unless Colleen Hanabusa runs again, there will be nothing interesting about this race

Idaho Safe R
It doesn't matter if the Republicans put up incumbent Mike Crapo, Sasquatch or Charles Manson, they will win this race.

Illinois Likely D
This seat is probably gone with Senator Kirk running, and if he retires it's definitely gone.

Iowa Safe R
Assuming Senator Grassley does in fact, run for re-election, he will win.

Kansas Safe R
Despite what this year is showing, Kansas is still a very Republican state.

Kentucky Likely R
While Rand Paul may run for President, it won't matter much here (other the Republican Candidate's margin of victory)

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D

Missouri Likely R
Governor Nixon deciding not run made things much easier for Republicans (though with the chaos in Ferguson, he would have started in a hole in any hypothetical primary anyways)

Nevada Likely D
Senator Reid may not have to meddle at all in the GOP race this time, as the front-runner Brian Sandoval's semi-pro choice view-points (he was rated 50% by NARAL in 2013) would be a non-starter in a primary

New Hampshire Tilt D
If Governor Hassan runs, she wins, if not Senator Ayotte, should win re-election, if less comfortably than 2010.

New York Safe D

North Carolina Safe R


North Dakota Safe R

Ohio Tilt R
If Rob Portman runs for re-election, he wins easily. If he runs for President, this race is a pure tossup, and if he's selected VP in the middle of the campaign...all bets are off.

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Tilt R
If there was a Senate race to put at tossup, this would be it.

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R

Utah Safe R
See Utah Governor's race

Vermont Safe D

Washington Safe D

Wisconsin Likely D
Senator Johnson and Senator Kirk are the two most likely incumbents to fall for either party.

A bit Democratically optimistic, but let's go over them.

Illinois, okay, I at least see the logic. Wisconsin is a Tossup unless Feingold runs (please) then it's lean D. But Nevada? Sandoval is absolutely adored there, and if the GOP hold on the governorship is secured with the Lt. race as it is looking to be, there is no reason why he shouldn't run.