Why such confidence in Johnson's defeat; and is that based on the assumption that Hassan challenges Ayotte?
Johnson's definitely the most endangered Republican Senate incumbent, and Wisconsin has a strong Democratic bent in presidential years. Its the Democrats top pickup opportunity, so I'm sure that whatever top-tier candidate the Democrats recruit to run in Wisconsin (my bet is on Ron Kind) will have no problem tying Johnson to the Tea Party agendas of Cruz and Lee.
Ayotte would be vulnerable against Hassan or either-one of New Hampshire's current House members. Ayotte could have done very well in a Susan Collins-type mold, but she instead decided to go more conservative than she can probably get away-with in New Hampshire with a presidential race driving turnout.
