Question about US election specifics

[Tender Branson]

Don't know really where this belongs, so I put it here for now (you can move it later).

I'm currently working on a 2014 version of my VAP/VEP estimates for each state to get benchmark data for each state to calculate mid-term turnout in each state.

I'm using the monthly population estimates from the Census Bureau, which would project the Nov. 4 population at ca. 319.5 million people (incl. troops stationed abroad, ca. 319.2 million without them).

The CB has now released 2013 Community Survey data as well to project the 18+ non-citizen-population to Nov. 2014 (by using the changes between 2012 and 2013 ACS data).

I would use Prof. Michael McDonald's data, but unfortunately his data is outdated and mostly incorrect because it uses old population data and old ACS data.

For example, according to McDonald the VAP in Nov. 2014 would be 243.3 million, when in fact it's 246 million (with overseas military) and 245.7 million without. That's because he used the Mid-2013 data, without projecting it further to Nov. 2014

...

But my question to you is more about the overseas military: Are all military people stationed overseas above 18 years (I would say yes) and are all of them American citizens (don't know, but I think yes as well) ? And are all of them allowed to vote in US elections for offices in the state they usually live, or are there exceptions ?

Thanks.

[dead0man]

But my question to you is more about the overseas military: Are all military people stationed overseas above 18 years (I would say yes)

Yes.  You can join before your 18th birthday, but you won't have completed basic and trade school in that time.  I'm sure there are probably a couple of exceptions every so often, but for the most part, yes all military stationed abroad are going to be over 18.

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No, not all of them are.

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That I don't know.  If you're a citizen you can certainly vote in wherever your "Home of Record" is, I'm not sure 'bout non-citizens.

[dead0man]

cite for non citizens serving.

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It's actually one of the easier ways to earn your citizenship.

[Tender Branson]

Thx deadman.

So, this means that ca. 98% of the military stationed overseas can be added to the VAP (voting age population), something that usually is not done (VAP is calculated based on the resident population, excl. overseas military).

304.000 people are stationed overseas right now (says the Census Bureau), excl. their family members who are overseas as well of course.

[Tender Branson]

In fact, it is extremely hard to get an exact figure of the VAP (voting age population) or VEP (voting eligible population) of the US.

There are also 7.6 million American citizens living overseas (a rough guess by the Dept. of State) who are eligible.

Then there's also the problem with the prisoners who are not allowed to vote (which varies extremely by state).

[Tender Branson]

I would use Prof. Michael McDonald's data, but unfortunately his data is outdated and mostly incorrect because it uses old population data and old ACS data.

Looks like he got the email I sent him today:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/516567772705615872

[Mr. Morden]

Here's your thread on the 2012 numbers:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181934.0

Note my comments at the end of the thread, about how such calculations are kind of a mess, since people can and do move across state lines (and in some cases overseas), while still voting absentee.

Some of these cases of high registered voters / eligible voters ratios (especially Michigan, lol!) could be people who've moved out of the state, are still on the voter rolls, and possibly even still vote absentee.  I still vote in the US (in Washington, since that was the last state I lived in), and am on the voter rolls there, but wouldn't be counted in any kind of Census count of "eligible voters", since I don't actually live in the US.  Of course, very few American citizens actually emigrate from the country altogether, but migration across state borders is common.  Many college students, for example, could be voting in states that they're not currently living in, so how would they be counted in tallies like this?

Would be interesting to see if there's a correlation between population growth and %age of the "eligible" population who's actually registered to vote.  If I'm right, then slow population growth would be correlated with high registration rates.  On the other hand, that could also just be a consequence of slow population growth meaning that the state has a large number of old people, who will on average be more likely to vote than the young.

EDIT: Also, what if, nationwide, you have a substantial portion of the population who votes very very rarely?  Say, once every ten years, or even once every twenty years.  If you have a state where there's no migration into or out of the state, they'll have very high registation fractions, simply because the rare voters are all sticking around and staying on the voting rolls, even though they practically never vote.  But if you have a high degree of migration, the rare voters who vote once a decade will be much more likely to live in states where they're not registered.

The point is, things are pretty lax regarding people moving and what state they're "eligible" to vote in.  If you're trying to count the universe of people who are legally eligible to vote in every given state, then there'll be double counting, because you can be legally eligible to vote in more than one state (as long as you're only registered in one state at a time).  E.g., college students living away from home can register at their parents' place, or their college residence.  Their choice.