Are the times of landslide victories over?
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  Are the times of landslide victories over?
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Author Topic: Are the times of landslide victories over?  (Read 5817 times)
President Johnson
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« on: September 29, 2014, 06:12:29 AM »

In the 20th century we have seen a lot of landslide victories (I consider a landslide victoty when a candidate receives both more than 55% in the popular vote and more than 70% of the electoral votes).

Under these criterias landslide victories were 1904, 1920, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972 and 1984. So the last is 30 years ago.
Are the times of landslide victories over? We had a couple of elections that weren't so close such as 2008. But 2008 isn't that strong. FDR won bigger than Obama even in his forth election in 1944 (more than 53% in the PV and 80% of the EV).
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2014, 07:19:03 AM »

There's too much polarization now.  For the timebeing, it looks like 450 EV landslides are likely over.  Even a candidate receiving 55% of the popular vote (quite an accomplishment now) is likely to lose at least 150 EVs or so. 

A very strong economy. limited fear abroads (unlikely in the near-term) and a president with no dirty baggage (in an age where the media is all over any little thing) could still give rise to that possibility, but it seems unlikely.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2014, 12:39:47 PM »

IMO, it's not nearly as out of the question as people act like, but it's certainly harder.  For example, Democrats would need a candidate who could keep the current Obama states but also appeal to the type of voter who has moved away from the party like WV and AR Democrats (I'm not sure if that candidate exists right now).  Republicans would need somebody who'd still win every Bush state and also have wide appeal to at the very least a higher share of Northeastern and Upper Midwest Whites.  Broadly speaking, taking into account a wide range of candidates being possible, this is probably each party's ceiling:

Republicans:



Democrats:



Needless to say, I think the Democrats have a much higher ceiling/lower floor.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2014, 01:23:51 PM »

The reason that these landslide victories were so prevalent in the 20th Century was because both political parties at the time enjoyed coalitions that spanned the ideological spectrum.  It's not that the electorate has become polarized, it's that the political parties have become polarized. 
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2014, 03:03:18 PM »



Here's the Democrats' best result in a statewide, contested-by-a-Republican, presidential election-year race in each state since 1996. I might do the Republican map later.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2014, 09:17:51 PM »




Here's the Democrats' best result in a statewide, contested-by-a-Republican, presidential election-year race in each state since 1996. I might do the Republican map later.

Here's a Republican equivalent of your map that only takes presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial elections into account. Also, I included results from 1996 itself.


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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2014, 10:40:44 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2014, 10:45:23 PM by shua »

I'm pretty sure every state except WA has elected a Republican in a statewide election since 1996, though some not with a majority of the vote. 

(edit: not in an presidential election year though.  but you can definitely add Mike Castle to that map at least since DE is a single district state.)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2014, 04:52:50 PM »

We also had no landslides from 1872 to 1904. They will come back, but I agree that overall we are in for more competitive and polarized elections for the next few decades.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2014, 05:49:06 PM »

It's plausible that Hillary could meet your criteria for a landslide if the GOP nominates a horrible candidate.
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DS0816
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2014, 02:50:52 AM »

In the 20th century we have seen a lot of landslide victories (I consider a landslide victoty when a candidate receives both more than 55% in the popular vote and more than 70% of the electoral votes).

Under these criterias landslide victories were 1904, 1920, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972 and 1984. So the last is 30 years ago.
Are the times of landslide victories over? We had a couple of elections that weren't so close such as 2008. But 2008 isn't that strong. FDR won bigger than Obama even in his forth election in 1944 (more than 53% in the PV and 80% of the EV).

Approximately every 1.3 million raw votes in difference between 1st and 2nd place represent a full percentage point in the margin. So, to get a 10-point margin, a landslide, in winning the U.S. Popular Vote the raw-vote margin would have to be 13 million.

I think it's very possible…but on the Democratic side. However, the Democrats aren't taking rapt advantage and being in pursuit of it for reasons that, should I be more specific, would make me appear to be too cynical. (In short, the Democrats don't want that large a victory.)
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RR1997
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2014, 09:13:43 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 09:23:17 AM by RR1997 »

We are way too polarized as a nation right now.

In 2008, we suffered from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and two devastating wars, yet Obama only hit 53% of the vote. Although to be fair Obama would've probably done better if he were a white man (maybe he would've hit 55% of the vote instead of 53%).

The best I could see either party doing right now is hitting 55% of the vote.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2014, 12:36:29 AM »

No, just no. 2016 will prove otherwise. Smiley
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2014, 01:12:25 PM »

I could see this small landslide happening with the right Democratic candidate:



I think the "right Democrat" could do a lot better than that.  They certainly wouldn't lose >60% of the vote in AR, KY and WV, but I'm guessing you just forgot to change those.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2014, 08:02:17 AM »

It is quite difficult to either party to surpass 55% of the national vote in presidential elections, and difficult to even get to that point as opposed to the low 50's. The former isn't likely to be accomplished unless the Republicans nominate a real stinker of a candidate like Cruz, Huckabee or (yes) Paul. (Democrats aren't likely in the immediate future to nominate a candidate who is any less extremist or nationally unpalatable than any other of their major candidates, e.g. Hillary).
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2014, 12:39:51 AM »

Maybe, but always bear in mind in these types of threads that we're talking a sample size of less than ten Presidential elections in the last few decades. It could be little more than chance that there hasn't been a big landslide. You could make a lot money betting on events the consensus of this forum considers to be "unprecedented".
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2014, 08:50:30 AM »

No, 2008 was a landslide and 2016 can be one. Dems may need it to pickup House. Net NH, PA, IL, and WI senate seats and winning CO, NV, OH and Va prez, all achievable for 315 electors.
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Emperor Charles V
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2014, 01:09:03 AM »

The reason that these landslide victories were so prevalent in the 20th Century was because both political parties at the time enjoyed coalitions that spanned the ideological spectrum.  It's not that the electorate has become polarized, it's that the political parties have become polarized. 

I completely agree with this statement.

Though I can see these broad coalitions so to speak reform again in the future. Perhaps the Republicans can be a coalition of Paulite libertarians like myself and a resurgent "Rockefeller" progressive/liberal faction (I believe this coalition is the best hope for the GOP to survive and thrive in the future and possibly obtain a landslide) and the Democrats will include a coalition of populists (including Warren/Schweitzer style northern populists and southern populists who can tend to be socially conservative but are moderate/liberal economically i.e. Huckabee) and the rising social democracy faction (i.e. Sanders). The latter coalition may even see the return of the solid (Democratic) south. Tongue

But yeah as Del said, broad coalitions if successful mean landslides.
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