Democrats - are you panicking right now?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 11:58:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Democrats - are you panicking right now?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Poll
Question: .
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Not a Democrat
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 114

Author Topic: Democrats - are you panicking right now?  (Read 3889 times)
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2014, 10:07:10 AM »

No, because there's this thing called 2016, when all of those Tea Party Senators come up for re-election. There's a good chance that Democrats gain as many seats two years from now as Republicans could gain this year.

Now, I'd panic/care if there was a possibility that we could maintain the number of seats in this election that we currently have, because 2016 would then produce the possibility for a filibuster-proof majority, but alas...

Whether Democrats have a majority or not come 2015 in the Senate won't affect legislation or policies that are passed over the next two years, and won't stop Democrats from regaining the Senate come 2017.
Maybe, but I wouldn't be so quick to assume 2016 will be a big Dem year. 2012 was supposed to see GOP gains and look how that turned out.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2014, 10:30:42 AM »

If Democrats panicked, they'd actually win. Truth is most probably aren't even going to vote.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,515
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2014, 10:44:04 AM »

Seriously guys, there is always a way to be positive!


OMG REPUBLICANS JUST WON 10 SEATS, no problem, in the opposition the democratic party will rebuild.


Tongue
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2014, 01:32:38 PM »

I'm getting used to the idea of the GOP taking the Senate, and the clusterf[Inks] that will accompany it.  But I'm not going to panic over something I have zero control over.

I have about as much control over who controls the Senate as I do over whether or not the Detroit Tigers win the World Series. I'd love to see both happen, but if neither do, I'll live.

To be honest, if I had to choose between the two, I would much rather see the Tigers win the World Series.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 30, 2014, 01:39:23 PM »

Ever since 2006,Democrats have won almost all of the close races in the Senate.
Nonetheless,even assuming that (NC aside,which is lean D right now) IA and CO do come home,we still need one of AK,AR or LA. Very,very,very hard.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 30, 2014, 06:48:10 PM »

No, because there's this thing called 2016, when all of those Tea Party Senators come up for re-election. There's a good chance that Democrats gain as many seats two years from now as Republicans could gain this year.

Now, I'd panic/care if there was a possibility that we could maintain the number of seats in this election that we currently have, because 2016 would then produce the possibility for a filibuster-proof majority, but alas...

Whether Democrats have a majority or not come 2015 in the Senate won't affect legislation or policies that are passed over the next two years, and won't stop Democrats from regaining the Senate come 2017.
Maybe, but I wouldn't be so quick to assume 2016 will be a big Dem year. 2012 was supposed to see GOP gains and look how that turned out.

You should read 2010 analysis from directly after the 2008 election. Supposedly, the only vulnerable Democratic seats were Arkansas (but Blanche Lincoln was favored) and California (but ONLY if Schwarzenegger ran!). Democrats were expected to gain seats, possibly lots of seats.
Logged
ShadowRocket
cb48026
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,461


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2014, 09:01:59 PM »

No because Orman's odds in KS are good and the losses can still be limited to six seats.
Logged
folksinger
Newbie
*
Posts: 5
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 02, 2014, 01:21:00 AM »

Not really. With the Republicans collapsing in Kansas, we really only need Pryor and Hagan to pull through (assuming Orman caucuses with the Dems).

If anything, Republicans should be panicking about 2016's map. Even if they do win a thin margin this year, odds are pretty good that they'll just turn it over in two years. Anything can hapen, but their 2016 map makes our 2014 map look like a cakewalk AND they have a Presidential electorate to deal with.
Logged
Princess Nyan Cat
nyancat
Rookie
**
Posts: 107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: 4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2014, 06:47:40 PM »

I have about as much control over who controls the Senate as I do over whether or not the Detroit Tigers win the World Series. I'd love to see both happen, but if neither do, I'll live.

To be honest, if I had to choose between the two, I would much rather see the Tigers win the World Series.

Well the first half of your dream has been shattered. Less than a month to go to see the rest of it smoking in ruins!
Logged
JohnCA246
mokbubble
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 639


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2014, 07:04:10 PM »

Panicked but not defeatist. It' still within reach.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,479
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2014, 11:56:08 PM »

I really couldn't care less if the Democrats keep control of the US Senate or not. I only pay attention to the national races at this point in the way that another man might view a blood sport.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2014, 01:18:16 PM »

Time to panic now? 3 weeks to go, and Begich, Braley and Udall are all trailing.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,322
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 13, 2014, 01:25:19 PM »

I'm getting used to the idea of the GOP taking the Senate, and the clusterf[Inks] that will accompany it.  But I'm not going to panic over something I have zero control over.

This
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 13, 2014, 01:33:29 PM »

Not really. If the Democrats hold on, then great! GOP is dealt a huge blow in an election that by all means they should've won. If the GOP narrowly wins, then great! They probably only won Romney states and maybe one Obama state (if they're lucky) and possibly losing one of their seats to an indy as well, which isn't an enormous win at all, and will probably end up somewhat like a pyrrhic victory, as they'll be the sole recipients of blame for whatever crazy antics they pull once they're completely in charge and facing a dreadful 2016 map. I would only panic if it was looking like a big GOP win, maybe 8-9+ seat gain, which is beginning to look increasingly unlikely (not that it ever was particularly likely).
Logged
Marston
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 13, 2014, 01:39:32 PM »

It does seem like the Dems may have to prepare for the possibility of working 24/7 in the lame duck to confirm as many federal judges as they possibly can.
Logged
Mister Mets
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,440
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: October 13, 2014, 03:00:04 PM »

It's still possible for Democrats to win despite the bulk of the competitive races occurring in Romney states.

If Republicans lose, how is it serious cause for panic?

Democrats would be less able to introduce legislation, but Republicans already had the House.

Obama can always veto anything objectionable.

The main concern would be the disorganized Republicans being savvy, and limiting passed legislation to items with popular support.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,988


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: October 13, 2014, 03:25:37 PM »

I see a 6 seat loss as a decent results for Dems leaving them in a good position for 2016. 7-9 seat loss things get dicier for Dems making it an even more uphill climb for 2016. I've been resigned to losing the Senate for awhile now and am just hoping to limit our losses for 2016.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: October 13, 2014, 03:56:24 PM »

Guys,

You need all to be positive.

If democrats keep the senate: GREAT Cheesy.

If democrats lose the senate! GREAT Cheesy. Mcconnell would be a disaster and would hurt the  GOP for 2016.

This. I'll be disappointed if Republicans take the Senate, but at least there will be the silver lining that McConnell and Boehner will no doubt make Hillary's trip to the White House much easier.

As the news worsens, I continue to be happy for this silver lining...
Logged
Representative Joe Mad
Joe Mad
Rookie
**
Posts: 189


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: October 13, 2014, 05:09:12 PM »

I see a 6 seat loss as a decent results for Dems leaving them in a good position for 2016. 7-9 seat loss things get dicier for Dems making it an even more uphill climb for 2016. I've been resigned to losing the Senate for awhile now and am just hoping to limit our losses for 2016.

I largely agree with your post.  The Democrats are being forced to defend or attempt to gain seats in states that aren't easy for us to win in, in a year bad for us nationally.  We just don't have the seats to lose, and so I've thought we were going to lose the majority for awhile.  That being said, as you mentioned, ideally we won't lose too many, and thus will be positioned for better year in 2016 (provided nothing terrible happens in between no and then and 2016 ends up being some sort of reverse 2008).
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,728


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: October 13, 2014, 05:17:45 PM »

Time to panic now? 3 weeks to go, and Begich, Braley and Udall are all trailing.

Things aren't looking that great, but there's still a decent chance of barely keeping the majority, with the most likely case being losing MT, SD, WV, AR, LA, and AK, but gaining Orman.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2014, 05:36:58 PM »

Time to panic now? 3 weeks to go, and Begich, Braley and Udall are all trailing.

Panic is never the right option. Namely because this isn't gone yet. The GOP is actually under-performing. Sure they could pick up just enough seats for the majority, but there are a lot of variables and many seats are still within the MoE at best. This is not what the GOP expected a few months back.
Logged
Rockefeller GOP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: October 13, 2014, 06:02:41 PM »

I'm clearly in the minority, but I could legitimately see the GOP winning control and McConnell still losing his seat...
Logged
Grumpier Than Thou
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,356
United States
Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: October 13, 2014, 06:08:19 PM »

Of course I'm panicked. This is either going to be a disaster or a relief equivalent to taking a piss after holding it in for 5 months.
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: October 14, 2014, 11:43:42 AM »

This thread: Democrats losing a bunch of Senate seats will be GREAT NEWS for the Democratic Party.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,954


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: October 14, 2014, 11:57:54 AM »

More like, after living through what happened in 2010 from Scott Brown through election day, it's hard to get too upset over a historical inevitability coming to pass.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 13 queries.