Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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  Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015
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Author Topic: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015  (Read 50702 times)
politicus
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« Reply #50 on: August 12, 2015, 02:32:20 PM »

To me, it looks worse the supposed which surrounded Lars Lokke in Denmark.

But those were not proven and he is PM anyway.


An important difference is that Denmark has bloc politics, so LLR could continue even if his party lost. The Faroes have no established blocs, so a partys own strength is decisive.
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jmlv
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« Reply #51 on: August 12, 2015, 05:36:58 PM »

Also oftenthe right wing vote is underestimated in the polls

Atleast in my country no one votes for the conservatives and then, voila

But the UP is actually not that conservative as the PP
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politicus
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« Reply #52 on: August 12, 2015, 05:57:18 PM »

Also oftenthe right wing vote is underestimated in the polls

Atleast in my country no one votes for the conservatives and then, voila

But the UP is actually not that conservative as the PP

There is no systematic under polling of the centre-right in Faroese polls. It was actually the other way round with the Folketing election, where the left (especially Republic) under polled quite a lot, but got both seats in the end (even though the dynamic is a bit different in Løgting elections, because socio-economic factors play a larger role).

UP is in principle not a Conservative party, but a Liberal, but as all Agrarian-Liberal parties in Scandinavia that means they got some SoCon elements, because rural roots = some cultural conservatism. PP is a very right wing party by Scandinavian standards, in Denmark only Liberal Alliance has a similarly right wing economic policy and no Swedish party would be as right wing as them (at least not one represented in parliament).
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jmlv
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« Reply #53 on: August 13, 2015, 07:33:51 AM »

How right wing would the PP be in moral terms?
As far asi know, Faroe Islands is more religious than any other Scandinavian country
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jmlv
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« Reply #54 on: August 15, 2015, 10:55:05 AM »

It also seems strange to me why the UP and the PP were forming coalition with the Centre Party as well, and not only with the Home Rule Party, as that would be enough for them.
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politicus
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« Reply #55 on: August 16, 2015, 07:56:47 AM »

How right wing would the PP be in moral terms?
As far asi know, Faroe Islands is more religious than any other Scandinavian country

Yeah, the Faroes is clearly the most socially conservative Nordic country (even though some parts of western Norway and rural Finland are similar).

PP defines itself as build upon Christian values, it is against abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage, gay adoption, "promotion of gay life style" in schools, any legalization of drugs and is generally in favor of traditional family values, so I would consider it quite socially conservative, at least for a Scandinavian party.

This also explains why they wanted the Centre Party as part of the coalition as a supplement to the social liberal Home Rule Party. The other reason was that 17 seats was simply not considered safe enough for a workable majority (at that time they did not know that they would get 1 defector from Progress and 1 from SD).

PP is officially defined as a "liberal, social and democratic party", that is they deny that they are Conservatives.. and when Poul Michelsen broke away it was because he claimed they were hypocritical about both economic and social liberalism and not radical enough on separatism. It is easier to understand the last two claims, than the first, but Michelsen probably mainly hinted on them being in favour of various subsides and tax breaks for Big Fishing and established businesses, which he saw as a threat to free competition.
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jmlv
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« Reply #56 on: August 17, 2015, 03:10:20 PM »

Taking into account that some seats danced in the last period, I can understand why a coalition wants something more than mere 17 seats. But if the PP has ended in bad terms with UP, which party could they ally with? In case figures matched, would they be able to be allies of the Republic Party,as they both are pro-independence?
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politicus
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« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2015, 01:02:29 AM »

Taking into account that some seats danced in the last period, I can understand why a coalition wants something more than mere 17 seats. But if the PP has ended in bad terms with UP, which party could they ally with? In case figures matched, would they be able to be allies of the Republic Party,as they both are pro-independence?

The PP, Home Rule, Republic combo is only relevant when there is a chance of moving ahead with the independence agenda, and in the current economic climate with big structural challenges ahead this seems impossible, but you never know.The bad experience from 1998-2004 is still a factor and it is a huge ideological gap to bridge. Republics solution regarding how to make the economy ready for independence (tax the rich, cut subsides, close tax loopholes) is contrary to the interests of PPs core electorate.

I doubt PP will be part of a new government, since SD do not want them and the UP/PP alliance seems in shambles. I guess if Bardur Nielsen takes over UP and the non-Progress centre-right somehow retains a majority that is a possibility, but that seems far fetched.
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jmlv
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« Reply #58 on: August 20, 2015, 12:19:46 PM »

Do you think that in the current climate, a 17 seats only coalition would be considered strong enough? Even if SD and Republic by themselves alone reach that figure.
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politicus
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« Reply #59 on: August 21, 2015, 04:22:51 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2015, 12:11:32 PM by politicus »

Do you think that in the current climate, a 17 seats only coalition would be considered strong enough? Even if SD and Republic by themselves alone reach that figure.

Well, there was one deserter from SD to Union in the last term, but I still think they will try if those two parties get a majority. But that looks unlikely now.

New poll from Fynd:

Fólkaflokkurin 18.3 (PP) 6
Sambandsflokkurin 21.1 (Union) 7
Javnaðarflokkurin 21.3 (SD) 7
Nýtt Sjálvstýri 4.2 (Home Rule) 1
Tjóðveldi 17.6 (Republic) 6
Framsókn 11.7 (Progress) 4
Miðflokkurin 5.9 (Centre) 2

Compared to the 2011 election this is:

PP -2
UP -1
Progress +2
SD +1

So only a marginal shift leftwards from one of the most right wing results in decades. It will be a major flop for the Faroese left if this is the result.
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politicus
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« Reply #60 on: August 21, 2015, 04:30:50 AM »

Not sure what to make of this. The current coalition only has 15 (and is deeply divided anyway).

Centrists United (SD-Centre-Home Rule-UP) has 17 (rather weak for such a broad coalition).

The reform/anti-old boys network-coalition of Republic, SD and Progress has 17. A Faroese politologist actually mentioned that as one of the likeliest options after the last poll. I am still more skeptical. But it would be interesting.

The poll has an economically right wing majority of PP-UP-Progress on 17, but that is not a workable option.

A lot will depend on wether Poul Michelsen wants to be in government or not.
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politicus
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« Reply #61 on: August 21, 2015, 05:47:21 AM »

The campaign so far:

The campaign has generally moved way from Tunnelgate and entered a populist phase where everybody are promising lower taxes for people with low incomes.

The current government introduced a flat tax in 2011 on request from PP, leading to big gains for the wealthy, but now PP wants taxes credits for low income families.  Generally the left wants progressive taxation reintroduced to finance lower taxes for low income people, while the centre-right wants various tax credits or just lower taxes all around (Progress).

The Centre Party is going all in against the gay threat. Party leader Jenis av Rana has compared LGTB activists to Sea Shepherd, and said both organizations try to undermine Faroese society, but while Sea Shepard only bothers the Faroese 2-3 months a years, LGTB activists are a threat all year long and a challenge to Our Lord himself. Jenis av Rani also wants a ban of Gay Pride parade in connection with the national day Ólavsøka and wants the gay pride parade removed from central Torshavn and relocated to an area in Hoyvik on the outskirts of Torshavn. This is the most single issue anti-gay election campaign the Centre Party has ever led. It seems to get them back to 6%, but may backfire among potential coalition partners. Progress or Republic and CP in the same coalition seems even more impossible after this. Home Rule or SD/CP may also be unrealistic.

Fishing quotas: Should they still be handed out for free to people who are or once were fishermen, only for some of them to become multimillionaires by re-selling quotas to others. This practice obviously makes it almost impossible for new people to enter fishing and Faroese straw men buying quotas for foreign companies is a growing problem.

Republic, SD, Home Rule and Progress wants this changed. UP, PP and Centre are pro-status quo. Some in UP wants minor reforms.

(treating fishing quotas as property rights is what caused the Icelandic financial bubble and eventual crash - generally a very stupid idea, but obviously popular among those who benefit)
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politicus
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« Reply #62 on: August 22, 2015, 12:39:19 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2015, 01:05:55 PM by politicus »

The current campaign by the Centre Party seems a bit suicidal. The whole reason for the party existing in the first place is that SoCons felled 1) that PP  was only paying lip service to their causes 2)  that they wanted a party positioned in the middle on both the socio-economic and separatist/unionist divide in order to be able to work with both sides to get their demands through. The current anti-gay rage seems to make it impossible for them to work with the left, which makes them kinda meaningless.

Looking at the two polls:

                                  PP       Union       SD     Home Rule    Republic    Progress    Centre
Fynd 20. august 2015   18,3 %   21,1 %   21,3 %   4,2 %   17,6 %   11,7 %   5,9 %
Fynd 6. august 2015   18,6 %   19,0 %   23,0 %   2,9 %   20,2 %   11,6 %   4,7 %

We got PP and Progress being stable, Republic losing quite a bit, partially to Zakarias Wang and Home Rule (a leftist activist claiming they are soft on separatism is an unexpected challenge for them - could be fun if Wang actually gets the Home Rule seat, might ruffle some feathers). Republic lose a bit more in this poll, however. Centre picks up 1,2% from homophobes across the board (PP, Union, SD). Union picks up around 2% ans SD lose almost as much. Faroese politics is still pretty direct campaigning and KJL is an excellent "community hall" campaigner, so he has probably convinced some unionist centrists to swing from SD to Union. It seems the Union Party has put their differences on hold until after the election.  

Of course movements are also more complex in a multiparty system, but this seems like the obvious explanations. The poll may of course also be off, as the Fynds Folketings polls were, but it is easier to poll the Legating with voting patterns being more predictable and weighing therefore easier.

There should be a final Fynd poll on the 27th, I am still hoping Gallup will poll this race once.
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jmlv
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« Reply #63 on: August 26, 2015, 10:59:58 AM »

The antiGay position seems to increase the Centre Party. Even id it is out of a coalition, would it mean that the other parties would hesitate/delay the issue, at least until next year, if the centre party increases due to thiis issue? Or maybe send it to referendum?

How likely would SD and UP would be to sacrifice gay marriage to ge an agreement with centre?

The progress party seems too neoliberal in economy, isnt it? And that seems a big issue now.
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jmlv
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« Reply #64 on: August 26, 2015, 11:09:45 AM »

I mean, economy seems the big issue. Would a left wing coalition with the Progress Party actually work? You sayyiu are skeptical.
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politicus
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« Reply #65 on: August 27, 2015, 06:43:58 AM »

The antiGay position seems to increase the Centre Party. Even id it is out of a coalition, would it mean that the other parties would hesitate/delay the issue, at least until next year, if the centre party increases due to thiis issue? Or maybe send it to referendum?

How likely would SD and UP would be to sacrifice gay marriage to ge an agreement with centre?

The progress party seems too neoliberal in economy, isnt it? And that seems a big issue now.

Homophobia increases the Centre vote a bit, but we are talking about an increase of 1-1,5%. So it will not influence the other parties.

Progress is libertarian on economics, but they may be willing to delay that part of their agenda in order to obtain other goals - including a fair tax system and market based quota system. I think centre has gone to far for SD this time, but you never know. UP would definitely be willing to postpone gay marriage, at it is not part of their platform and they are internally divided (so is SD, but with a very clear Yes majority).
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politicus
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« Reply #66 on: August 27, 2015, 06:53:11 AM »

I mean, economy seems the big issue. Would a left wing coalition with the Progress Party actually work? You sayyiu are skeptical.

They could make it for, say, 2 years in order to modernise the country on both social issues, taxes/loopholes, subsidies, agricultural law (lots of anachronisms) and fishing quotas. It is difficult to see how Progress obtains their goal of a genuine free market economy, unless they take it in two steps and use the left to get rid of favouritism of vested interests first  before they make the low tax/budget cut stuff with the centre-right. I am just not sure if they are serious or prefer the populist profile and scoring cheap points.

Another social issue is abortion, where the Faroes retained the Danish 1956 law when Denmark (and Greenland) got free abortion in 1973.  This ban is then systematically undermined by liberal doctors giving dispensations. So a peculiar situations, and on Centre could have chosen to mobilize ion instead of using homophobia.
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jmlv
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« Reply #67 on: August 27, 2015, 08:00:36 AM »

It seems things are dancing a bit, from what you say the tunnel issue is no longer central in the campaign and UP is resisting

Progress seems unstable, but you lll never know. All this Faroese politics seem far too unpredictable.

What about a three big parties coalition?
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politicus
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« Reply #68 on: August 27, 2015, 11:07:29 AM »

It seems things are dancing a bit, from what you say the tunnel issue is no longer central in the campaign and UP is resisting

Progress seems unstable, but you lll never know. All this Faroese politics seem far too unpredictable.

What about a three big parties coalition?

It has moved steadily to the right from the red majority in early spring, so not sure it is "dancing", there has been a slow recovery in the centre-rights popularity. It is just that many observers had expected Tunnelgate to be a game changer, and it seems not to be.

That there is no direct way to predict which government will be formed even after you got the election results has always been a big part of the charm of Faroese politics for me. Given how many two party and multi party organized as two bloc systems there are (just look how stale Danish politics has become with the Red Bloc/Blue Bloc division) this is rather intriguing.

It is actually more closed this time, because SD is ruling out PP and still hopes to be able to reinstate progressive taxation through some Red Alliance + change-coalition, while the pro-independence option is a bit irrelevant at the moment. so more Left/Right than usual.

SD has ruled out PP quite adamantly and Republic and UP never ally, so there are no "3 of Big 4" combos in play.
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jmlv
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« Reply #69 on: August 27, 2015, 11:51:36 AM »

Politics makes strange bedmates Smiley

When should the new government be formed? two weeks time?

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politicus
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« Reply #70 on: August 27, 2015, 12:42:43 PM »

Politics makes strange bedmates Smiley

When should the new government be formed? two weeks time?


It took 16 days to form the current coalition, but it might take a coupe of weeks longer this time, since it will probably include some of the above mentioned "strange bedfellows".
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jmlv
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« Reply #71 on: August 27, 2015, 12:53:31 PM »

So that it could even be formed in October. And in the meantime? what happens? Is the current government still running?
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politicus
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« Reply #72 on: August 27, 2015, 01:00:27 PM »

So that it could even be formed in October. And in the meantime? what happens? Is the current government still running?

Yes. One of the main reasons behind the vote of no confidence attempt was to block KLJ from having first call on forming the next government. If he had been toppled (or resigned), there would have been a caretaker administration and the biggest party would have had first call. Now he has the initiative (which will only matter if UP gets a decent result).
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politicus
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« Reply #73 on: August 28, 2015, 09:06:52 AM »

PP now brings the independence issue into the campaign with a proposal that the Faroes enter a free association with Denmark (similar to fx. Micronesia/US or NZ/Cook Islands), where DK only acts on behalf of the Faroes when requested to and all sovereignty rests with the Faroese. This is similar to a Siumut proposal in Greenland. They want bilateral negotiations and a referendum on the result.

Republic brings up their former proposal of a 2016 referendum on outright independence.

Current positions:

Home Rule: Gradual takeover of areas whenever the Faroes can afford it resulting in full independence at some point down in the future.

SD: Suppports a Faroese constitution and less dependency, but not independence "right now". Almost separatist at this point, but likely not in practice.

UP: Going back towards old school unionism, wants more Danish investments in Faroese healthcare.

Centre: Irrelevant discussion. No opinion.

Progress: Positive towards Republics suggestion of a fast track to independence.

PP has kept a low profile on independence for a long time, but them bringing this up now increases the likelihood of a PP-Progress-Republic coalition. Republic seems always to give in on the socio-economic stuff if they can get closer to independence. Still, it is hard to see them agree on the path with the right wingers.

SD is clearly trying to appear sufficiently willing to advance Faroese sovereignty to keep Republic tied to them.
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politicus
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« Reply #74 on: August 28, 2015, 09:19:01 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 10:34:44 AM by politicus »

New poll from Fynd today. Progress is losing ground to PP. May be the free association proposal, or (more likely) the talk about Progress allying with the left. UP down a bit. Their decline gives a cheap second seat to Home Rule. Centre on 6,7%. Difference to last poll in brackets.

PP 20,8 7 (+2,5)
UP 19,6 6 (-1,5)
SD 21,3 7 (-)
Home Rule 4,9 2 (+0,7)
Republic 18,0 6 (+0,4)   
Progress 8,7 3 (-3,0)
Centre 6,7 2 (+0,8)
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