NC-02: SUSA: Ellmers up 8

[Miles]

Report.

Ellmers (R)- 47%
Aiken (D)- 39%

The Senate candidates are tied at 44% in the district, which would be good for Hagan if true (she lost it 50/47 in 2008).

[Maxwell]

An 8 point distance is probably Aikens ceiling.

[IceSpear]

Report.

Ellmers (R)- 47%
Aiken (D)- 39%

The Senate candidates are tied at 44% in the district, which would be good for Hagan if true (she lost it 50/47 in 2008).

The Senate number is interesting considering Hagan won statewide in 2008 by a fairly lofty margin. Is this an area she's expected to do disproportionately better in than 6 years ago, or do you think it's just an outlier? It's not like anyone is showing Hagan up double digits, especially not SurveyUSA which actually gives her the smallest lead of all (only 1 point).

[Miles]

The Senate number is interesting considering Hagan won statewide in 2008 by a fairly lofty margin. Is this an area she's expected to do disproportionately better in than 6 years ago, or do you think it's just an outlier? It's not like anyone is showing Hagan up double digits, especially not SurveyUSA which actually gives her the smallest lead of all (only 1 point).

Well, the sample size is small (400), which tends to increase the MoE.

I'm not reading that much into it, but it confirms my hunch that Hagan will run ahead of the Democratic baseline in the Raleigh metro area; most of the district is in that media market.