When will the Libertarians gain power?

[Free Bird]

It's clear to me that the GOP is infected at its core. There are too many bigots and their voting block is dying. Young people are rather libertarian minded, so that leaves a great groundwork for all the people disgusted with both parties. So let's say the Democrats eventually take over and are unstoppable. Eventually, opposition will rise for something different. That will probably be the Libertarian Party. So the question is: when will they rise, and how will they be able to rise above 6% on a really good night to sweeping elections like the GOP in the early 1900s?

[Chilltown]

The upcoming generation is poorer and less white. Not exactly good soil for a libertarian movement.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Much more likely that as the bulk of the anti-gay marriage, anti-immigration reform folks eventually die off, the GOP will move to the center and fix some of its image problems on cultural issues.  If the last 150 years have taught us anything, it's that the two major parties are eventually more than willing to change to stay viable.

[ElectionsGuy]

Libertarians have a real voice with young white men, that's about it. I say they will never gain power because their message just won't sell with anybody else. Specifically the Libertarian Party is way too ideological, disaffecting the republicans and democrats who are either fed up with their parties or have libertarian leanings. There has to be a broad liberty movement, and Rand Paul is the best thing we have right now in the Senate (Amash and Massie in the house), there has to be a general consensus about the role of government, not "taxes are theft" or "cut the budget by 60%".

[5280]

When the GOP ceases to exist.

[Rockefeller GOP]

When the GOP ceases to exist.

And I think if the GOP survived through the FDR years, and the Democrats survived the '80s, they'll both certainly make it through most anything.  We haven't had a permanent new party since 1854, LOL...

[Representative Joe Mad]

When the GOP ceases to exist.

And I think if the GOP survived through the FDR years, and the Democrats survived the '80s, they'll both certainly make it through most anything.  We haven't had a permanent new party since 1854, LOL...

Essentially this.  Hell, the 80s weren't even that bad for the Democrats.  I mean, they survived being blamed for the freaking Civil War.

[Person Man]

When the GOP ceases to exist.

And I think if the GOP survived through the FDR years, and the Democrats survived the '80s, they'll both certainly make it through most anything.  We haven't had a permanent new party since 1854, LOL...

 

Essentially this.  Hell, the 80s weren't even that bad for the Democrats.  I mean, they survived being blamed for the freaking Civil War.

2003 to 2007 were arguably worse than 1981 to 1987 for Democrats. I could see Libertarians becoming a much larger share of the Republican Party if they don't quite win the senate or if they didn't win the house in 2010. The fact that they lost 2 and a half elections in a row probably has made it that they focus on old school 1920s Republicans than fundies or neocons.  I'd imagine if they do well this year, they will probably run pretty similar to the way they did in 2000 and 2004 in 2016 and keep running like that until they lose again.

What's more interesting is the prospect of a Liberty movement in the Democratic Party. This election probably means that they can't really count on going back to Southern Dems (They are poised to lose all or all but 1 statewide race in the South). If they lose states like Iowa and Colorado, it probably means that gun control people can't deliver, either. There are groups that DO deliver for Democrats and a lot of their concerns can fit into a Liberty-style framework. Democrats going forward can turnout out more minorities and young people.  In a liberty framework, Democrats can be more comfortable on social issues, try to work to  make Dovish/ pro-Civil Liberty  policies more implementable and effective and try to assail policies that merge state and capital in a way that hurts the little guy. They will have to start talking about "keeping the politics of the moment out of gun control" .  However, just like the Republicans, there will be some issues that Democrats won't be able to be totally libertarian on. Healthcare and taxes on the very, very wealthy will have to be how Republican liberty people have handled personhood.

The only thing that would make Democrats to be more successful with a traditional liberal platform is if labor somehow rapidly makes a comeback.

[Mister Mets]

We have a two party system, with three general strains (Big government, Smart government, No Government.)

Libertarians tend to be in the last category, so it's possible that they won't ever gain power if the dominant arguments are between Big Government and Smart Government or divisions of the above (IE- Big government liberals VS Big government social conservatives.)

[RI]

Never, by the grace of God.

[Dixie Reborn]

Never. New, younger voters will soon force the GOP to abandon its religiosity and neoconservatism. The GOP, in probably 30-40 years will have two distinct wings: Fascists and Libertarians (thus making the Libertarian Party obsolete). I don't know if these two factions will engage in stupid infighting against each other like the current Republican Establishment and Tea Party wings, but I hope that they'll work together in one large coalition.

On a side note, by the point in time when the above scenario takes place, the Democrats would be consistently getting less than 10% of the white vote, and become the party of solely ethnic/racial minority interests.  

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Never. New, younger voters will soon force the GOP to abandon its religiosity and neoconservatism. The GOP, in probably 30-40 years will have two distinct wings: Fascists and Libertarians (thus making the Libertarian Party obsolete). I don't know if these two factions will engage in stupid infighting against each other like the current Republican Establishment and Tea Party wings, but I hope that they'll work together in one large coalition.

On a side note, by the point in time when the above scenario takes place, the Democrats would be consistently getting less than 10% of the white vote, and become the party of solely ethnic/racial minority interests.  

No, that's not how it works.

[eric82oslo]

I think the Libertarian party could get serious influence in certain parts of the country, in certain states, but probably not surpass the GOP in popularity in every part of the country. Just like the Green party will never become a giant in West Virginia, the Libertarian party will struggle in gaining adherents in deeply religious and conservative states like Mississippi. Maine could perhaps be the first state where the Libertarian party becomes a major one, thanks to its independent nature, it being one of the three near-complete-non-religious states and due to Libertarian thoughts already infiltrating both local parties there and in particular the Democratic party (I'm sure many people already think of Shenna Bellows as more of a Libertarian rather than a Democrat for instance).

So, the Green party might become massive in California and Washington one day, just like the Libertarian party might see the same rise in Maine, and possibly neighbouring New Hampshire and Vermont too. There are way too many religious people in the US for the GOP to start moving in a less theocratic, more pluralistic and non-religious way any time soon. Remember that according to a recent Pew poll, a clear majority of adult Americans actually want to see the major parties move in a more religious direction, not in a less one.

[BaconBacon96]

The Libertarians might get past 5% in an election one year but the Republicans will get their sh*t together and fix themselves.

[SWE]

I think the Libertarian party could get serious influence in certain parts of the country, in certain states, but probably not surpass the GOP in popularity in every part of the country. Just like the Green party will never become a giant in West Virginia, the Libertarian party will struggle in gaining adherents in deeply religious and conservative states like Mississippi. Maine could perhaps be the first state where the Libertarian party becomes a major one, thanks to its independent nature, it being one of the three near-complete-non-religious states and due to Libertarian thoughts already infiltrating both local parties there and in particular the Democratic party (I'm sure many people already think of Shenna Bellows as more of a Libertarian rather than a Democrat for instance).

So, the Green party might become massive in California and Washington one day, just like the Libertarian party might see the same rise in Maine, and possibly neighbouring New Hampshire and Vermont too. There are way too many religious people in the US for the GOP to start moving in a less theocratic, more pluralistic and non-religious way any time soon. Remember that according to a recent Pew poll, a clear majority of adult Americans actually want to see the major parties move in a more religious direction, not in a less one.

Obviously the Green Party isn't massive anywhere, but West Virginia is easily one of the state's where it's strongest

[eric82oslo]

I think the Libertarian party could get serious influence in certain parts of the country, in certain states, but probably not surpass the GOP in popularity in every part of the country. Just like the Green party will never become a giant in West Virginia, the Libertarian party will struggle in gaining adherents in deeply religious and conservative states like Mississippi. Maine could perhaps be the first state where the Libertarian party becomes a major one, thanks to its independent nature, it being one of the three near-complete-non-religious states and due to Libertarian thoughts already infiltrating both local parties there and in particular the Democratic party (I'm sure many people already think of Shenna Bellows as more of a Libertarian rather than a Democrat for instance).

So, the Green party might become massive in California and Washington one day, just like the Libertarian party might see the same rise in Maine, and possibly neighbouring New Hampshire and Vermont too. There are way too many religious people in the US for the GOP to start moving in a less theocratic, more pluralistic and non-religious way any time soon. Remember that according to a recent Pew poll, a clear majority of adult Americans actually want to see the major parties move in a more religious direction, not in a less one.

Obviously the Green Party isn't massive anywhere, but West Virginia is easily one of the state's where it's strongest

That's cause the WV Democratic party is so far from being green that green Democrats have no other places to go for now.

[Vega]

Never.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Libertarians might get past 5% in an election one year but the Republicans will get their sh*t together and fix themselves.

OK, please. The Libertarian movement is not derived out of the Republican Party, that will never be the case. They are explicitly running against the republicans on 50-60% of issues.

[BaconBacon96]

The Libertarians might get past 5% in an election one year but the Republicans will get their sh*t together and fix themselves.

OK, please. The Libertarian movement is not derived out of the Republican Party, that will never be the case. They are explicitly running against the republicans on 50-60% of issues.

I agree that they are fundamentally different ideologically. However, this is irrelevant. It's about how they will be perceived. Their fiscal conservatism will attract dissatisfied Republicans more than it will ever attract Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Libertarians might get past 5% in an election one year but the Republicans will get their sh*t together and fix themselves.

OK, please. The Libertarian movement is not derived out of the Republican Party, that will never be the case. They are explicitly running against the republicans on 50-60% of issues.

I agree that they are fundamentally different ideologically. However, this is irrelevant. It's about how they will be perceived. Their fiscal conservatism will attract dissatisfied Republicans more than it will ever attract Democrats.

I tend to agree with that, but its still not a movement a conservative will get themselves into if they know what its all about. Anti-NSA spying, Anti-Patriot Act, Anti-racial profiling, non-interventionism, and things like that can attract left leaning people. We're also against special handouts to billionaires and corporations. These are important issues to many libertarians, its not only fiscal issues and governing style that matters.

Sorry if it seemed like I was mad at you or something in the first response - I wasn't.

[Rockefeller GOP]

The Libertarians might get past 5% in an election one year but the Republicans will get their sh*t together and fix themselves.

OK, please. The Libertarian movement is not derived out of the Republican Party, that will never be the case. They are explicitly running against the republicans on 50-60% of issues.

I agree that they are fundamentally different ideologically. However, this is irrelevant. It's about how they will be perceived. Their fiscal conservatism will attract dissatisfied Republicans more than it will ever attract Democrats.

I tend to agree with that, but its still not a movement a conservative will get themselves into if they know what its all about. Anti-NSA spying, Anti-Patriot Act, Anti-racial profiling, non-interventionism, and things like that can attract left leaning people. We're also against special handouts to billionaires and corporations. These are important issues to many libertarians, its not only fiscal issues and governing style that matters.

Sorry if it seemed like I was mad at you or something in the first response - I wasn't.

All you have to do is look at your endorsements to know that Libertarians easily have more in common with (at least a significant portion of) Republicans than they do with Democrats.

[Person Man]

The Libertarians might get past 5% in an election one year but the Republicans will get their sh*t together and fix themselves.

OK, please. The Libertarian movement is not derived out of the Republican Party, that will never be the case. They are explicitly running against the republicans on 50-60% of issues.

I agree that they are fundamentally different ideologically. However, this is irrelevant. It's about how they will be perceived. Their fiscal conservatism will attract dissatisfied Republicans more than it will ever attract Democrats.

I tend to agree with that, but its still not a movement a conservative will get themselves into if they know what its all about. Anti-NSA spying, Anti-Patriot Act, Anti-racial profiling, non-interventionism, and things like that can attract left leaning people. We're also against special handouts to billionaires and corporations. These are important issues to many libertarians, its not only fiscal issues and governing style that matters.

Sorry if it seemed like I was mad at you or something in the first response - I wasn't.

All you have to do is look at your endorsements to know that Libertarians easily have more in common with (at least a significant portion of) Republicans than they do with Democrats.

Where would he be in 2004, 2006 and 2008? If Republicans win big in 2014 and 2016, where will be in 2018 and 2020?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Libertarianism is not a viable ideology in the real world.

[Mehmentum]

The two major parties are extremely adept at integrating successful third party's ideologies into their own, so no, the Libertarian party will never take power. 

[eric82oslo]

Libertarianism is not a viable ideology in the real world.

I agree that pure Libertarianism is really far away from being realistic and appliable to the real world in which people actually live (pure libertarianism is borderline anarchistic in my view), however a light version of it, including only the best and brightest of their ideas, is not I would argue. Rand Paul and Shenna Bellows are both very far from being true libertarians, yet they've both cleverly embraced many libertarian ideas. And yet they're both very different from one another. The great thing with the Libertarian party is that it brings fresh ideas to the table, something the country sorely needs politically speaking. Libertarians, other third party candidates and independents will finally be the ones bringing an end to political gridlock and obstructionism I believe, even if we might still be a decade or two away from that actually happening.