2016 Republican Nomination Poll - October 2014

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Still Paul, but Bush's stock is rising.

It's weird how Bush is getting so much attention here. He endorses the biggest two heresies of the GOP's right-wing base - immigration reform and common core, and he doesn't even seem willing to back track or 'modify' his position. He will get slaughtered in a Republican primary.

Romney invented Obamacare, and he still won.....

[Maxwell]

In this situation, I think Jeb Bush is George Romney and Mitt is Nelson Rockefeller. Jeb Bush will be a huge paper tiger and flub immediately and force Romney out of retirement.

[ElectionsGuy]

Now I'm thinking Bush. The Republican Party never fails to 'reinvent' itself with more of the same, or am I just pessimistic?

[Flake]

I would've thought voting for Romney would have been a pretty silly thing but he's really doing strongly in polls, so I vote that he wins the nomination

[tmthforu94]

Mitt Romney, as I have been saying for months. Glad to see others are starting to realize this.

BTW, not saying for certain it will happen, but if Mitt ends up winning the nomination, I cannot wait to gloat, as I called this before just about anyone on here.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Sticking with my prediction that I've had since the first one of these polls:

Chris Christie

[Vega]

Romney.

[Chilltown]

Still Paul, but Bush's stock is rising.

It's weird how Bush is getting so much attention here. He endorses the biggest two heresies of the GOP's right-wing base - immigration reform and common core, and he doesn't even seem willing to back track or 'modify' his position. He will get slaughtered in a Republican primary.

Romney invented Obamacare, and he still won.....

There's a couple of differences:

1). Mitt Romney actually pledged to repeal Obamacare (and he also doesn't have a soul), do you really expect Jeb Bush to repudiate the last decade of work he's done to promote common core and immigration reform?

2). A comparison to Mitt is not apt in this scenario, Mitt only won in 2012 because his opposition was weak. Jeb Bush would not be going against Gingrich and Santorum.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are Common Core and immigration reform the biggest heresies amongst the base? I'd have thought it'd be being pro-choice or trying to raise taxes.

Anyway, though I don't think Bush will want the nomination; if he truly wins the support of the establishment, nothing can really stop them.

[Mr. Morden]

Have we ever had one of these (not just for 2016, but for 2008 and 2012 as well) in which no one got over 20% of the vote?

[ShamDam]

Sticking with my prediction that I've had since the first one of these polls:

Chris Christie

[© tweed]

Romney currently has the lead.  ha ha.

[Phony Moderate]

Romney will get it if he runs, but it's only (at most) a 25% chance that he will. Otherwise Walker (if he's re-elected) or Rubio.

[Chilltown]

Are Common Core and immigration reform the biggest heresies amongst the base?

They are the items that will provoke the most resistance from the GOP base.

I suppose you could add Obamacare to that too, but it's not like any of the Republican candidates are going to waver on that anytime soon.

[Suburbia]

Pence, he's the real deal.

[SPC]

In this situation, I think Jeb Bush is George Romney and Mitt is Nelson Rockefeller. Jeb Bush will be a huge paper tiger and flub immediately and force Romney out of retirement.

Who is Nixon?

[Bull Moose Base]

In this situation, I think Jeb Bush is George Romney and Mitt is Nelson Rockefeller. Jeb Bush will be a huge paper tiger and flub immediately and force Romney out of retirement.

Who is Nixon?

Hey, I get people saying Bridgegate may not be as bad as it first looked but let's not go so far as asking  who is Nixon here.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney. The White Horse Prophecy must be fulfilled.

[Maxwell]

In this situation, I think Jeb Bush is George Romney and Mitt is Nelson Rockefeller. Jeb Bush will be a huge paper tiger and flub immediately and force Romney out of retirement.

Who is Nixon?

Actually, Romney may be very apt for Nixon.

[New_Conservative]

If Romney runs, he isn't winning the primary. I really don't think he runs.

[spacecoyote]

~18 months ago, the buzz was about Christie and Rubio.  Today, after the media narrative of both of their proto-candidacies supposedly imploding…..I'm still kind of thinking Christie and Rubio, because I don't know who else to put ahead of them.

I still think desire to win counts for a lot.  Not desire to speak out about your favored issues, to create fame for yourself in the next term of Congress, or to score a book deal or do commentary on Fox News Channel…..but a desire to actually *win* the nomination (and if you're lucky, the presidency).  Does the candidate really want to win?  Are they willing to do or say whatever it takes to do so, or (like Perry 2012 for example) are they only bothering to run because they think there's an opening?

[People sometimes talk about being in the right ideological space to win the nomination.  I'd say an alternative way of looking at it is just to look at who doesn't really have an ideology.  The candidates who are committed to a particular ideology are at a disadvantage, because they can't be as flexible as the McCain/Romney types who'll say anything needed to win.]

Both McCain and Romney had that desire more than anyone in the GOP race in 2008, and they came in first and second.  Romney had it more than anyone in the GOP race in 2012, and he won the nom.  It's early to handicap this for 2016, but I do think Rubio has it more than most of the field, which is why I think many of you are underrating his chances.  The only hesitation I have on that score is that he's still young, and so just coming in 2nd might be good enough for him to set up his chances for 2020 or 2024.  And of course, he won't run if Bush does, but I still see that as a longshot.

So, anyway, I voted Christie last month, so I'll go with Rubio this time.

I'm not sure the mechanism by which "wanting it most" would translate into success in the primary, other than willingness to grovel for money and willingness to change your positions to please whatever group you had to please. I actually think almost every candidate is willing to do that, they're just betting on different groups. Rand Paul is the most noticeable flip-flopper this cycle but only because of the space between what his positions were and what they need to be to compete in a GOP primary. But he's not really any different on willingness to do that than anyone else as I see it.

Burke proving to be a temporary presence, I'm back to Walker winning the nomination.

Is she? It still looks like she has a very good chance of winning so I can't bet on Walker yet.

Jeb Bush.
Bush will be at the top of my list until he either announces he's not running or withdraws his candidacy. 

Also, very tough to tell if he'll run and how he'll navigate his problematic issues.

This speculation is tough but I guess more fun while the field is so nebulous. For now, I'll stick with Cruz, who is almost definitely running, and who excites the base like no GOP candidate in the comparably open races of 2008 or 2012 did. People point to Romney 2012 as an example that moderates win, but I don't know if he would have won had Ted Cruz been his opponent.

I agree that Perry and Paul seem to be the only candidates with any chance at the nomination who actually seem to want to work for it. I could imagine Christie running an energetic campaign but he hasn't shown signs of this yet. Romney for his faults started organizing fundraising and laying the groundwork early in 2008 and 2012 and did everything he could for the nomination. The conservative candidates in 2012 (Gingrich, Santorum, and the rest) never really had a strong organization. If Bush or another moderate runs a half-hearted campaign or just expects to be handed the nomination as the establishment choice he could end up being the next Gulianni or Fred Thompson. You need some organizational support to win the nomination either grassroots, paid, or both.

[Chilltown]

Mitt Romney will be the "on call" guy, somebody who jumps in if the power brokers' favorites break down or never catch on with voters.

Only way I see this happening is if:

Walker loses reelection/or is implicated in some scandal.
No other boring Midwestern governor (like Kasich) wants to give it a go.
Jeb Bush doesn't run/crashes and burns (which imo is likely).

[Senator Cris]

I will post the grapich today or tomorrow.

Do you have that graph yet?

I have the Top 8.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Look at that Walker collapse

[GLPman]

I'm like the only person voting Kasich. Probs the only one legit excited and supportive of him too.

I would be thrilled if Kasich won the nomination, but I don't think he's going to run.

Anyway, I'm switching from Paul to Christie this month.