Greenland parliamentary election - November 28, 2014

[politicus]

Several Siumut chapters, among them Siumut Nuuk and Siumut Aasiaat (5th largest town), want former Prime Minister and current Chairman of Parliament Lars Emil Johansen (68) to return as chairman. Johansen says he is touched, but wont tell whether or not he runs before tomorrow when the convention starts. A bit coy of the old guy since he hinted about a possible comeback last week.

It is a bit of a middle finger to the three candidates, that big local chapters want the party's grand old man to step in and save them (might also be counterproductive since Siumut was not exactly free of scandals when Larsii was in charge..). Looks like it will be a chaotic day tomorrow, but I still expect Kielsen to get a comfortable majority in the end.

[politicus]

The 47 year old former sailor, policeman and social worker Kim Kielsen from Paamiut in southern Greenland is new chairman of Siumut getting support from 2/3 the 66 delegates (some voting by SMS from their home towns - the party economy is tight after all the money they have had to repay).
Former PM Lars Emil Johansen did run, arriving to Nuuk on the morning of the convention, being "begged" to run by the Uummannaq chapter (in the far north), humbly accepting and having the election delayed to 1 PM, so everything was staged for a spectacular comeback, but it seems the veteran had miscalculated the mood in his party entirely.

Result:

Kim Kielsen 44
Lars-Emil Johansen 17
Doris Jakobsen 2
Nick Nielsen 2
Blank 1

[politicus]

Former Mayor of wealthy Ilulissat (60% of Greenlands tourist sector) Anthon Frederiksen is joining the small Naleraq party. Frederiksen recently dissolved his own Kattusseqatigiit Partiiat, which was an attempt to form a conservative business friendly party. He has encouraged other party members to join Naleraq as well. KP was in government 2009-13, but failed to enter the Inatsisartut last year.

[politicus]

New poll from HS Analyse published in weekly Sermitsiaq. They will have another one out on November 21, but that is likely all we get. 2013 result in brackets.

Siumut 34,5% 11 (-3)
IA 40,8% 13 (+3)
Naleraq 9,6% 3 (+3)
Atassut 6,7% 2 (-)
Democrats 6,2% 2 (-)
Partii Inuit 1,6% 0 (-2)
Independents 0,6% 0 (-)
Total 100% 31

This is a lot better for Siumut than expected, so the voters seem to have received new chairman Kim Kielsen well. The big joker is that 30% are undecided and former Siumut voters are overrepresented among them. Since Greenlandic voters generally break heavily towards parties that are gaining Siumut breakaway Naleraq could very well get much higher.

IA is losing 1 seat compared to September and has been sliding since May when they polled 46%. Sermitsiaq speculates that a result like this could lead to an IA/Naleraq coalition as both parties are against uranium mining, but populist Naleraq would be a risky partner for IA.
IA and their former partner the Democrats lack a seat to get a majority.

[politicus]

Analysis of the election from Polarisk in Arctic Journal:

http://arcticjournal.com/politics/1092/editors-briefing-let-qinersineq-begin


Fine basic overview of the race. See also their portrait of Kim Kielsen or follow hashtags #GLvalg14, #qin14 and #qinersineq14.

[politicus]

Naleraq has opened the perennial language issues by saying Danish should be replaced with English in education, claiming that Greenland is not a bilingual society (which amounts to saying Nuuk isn't "real" Greenland). They also want Danish banned in the Inatsisartut (parliament), which is a veiled attack on IA since a couple of prominent female IA MP's don't speak Greenlandic (or only rudimentary Greenlandic).
So trying to be Partii Inuit light, but Hans Enoksen is a language fundamentalist, so it makes sense.

IA has opened another one of the very sore issues - the untenable budget situation. They want to simultaneously cut the public sector, eliminate tax breaks to home owners and tax the wealthy more. Despite having nominally socialist governments since 1979 Greenland doesn't have a progressive tax code and no property and inheritance taxes, mainly because it benefits the political-administrative elite not to have it.

[politicus]

Minister of Finance Vittus Qujaukitsoq from Siumut has finally - after massive pressure from the Democrats, IA and the Greenlands  Employers Association - released the revised budget numbers for 2014 and they show that Greenland will get a deficit around  275 million Danish kroner instead of the expected surplus of 21 million.

Election day tomorrow, this may be a gamechanger, but Siumut had a (surprising) lead in the last poll.

[politicus]

The last poll  by HS from November 21-23 with the previous poll from the start of the campaign in brackets:

Siumut 36,7% (34,3) 12
IA 34,5% (38,5) 11
Democrats 11,2% (9,2) 3
Naleraq 10,2% (10,8) 3
Atassut 6,0 (6,0) 2
Partii Inuit 1,4% (1,2) 0

So the big loser during the campaign is IA, and the winners are Siumut and the Democrats. IA has lost support because they advocate a referendum on uranium mining, but will still close the big mining project at Kvanefjeld in Narsaq in Southern Greenland even if the voters say no to banning uranium mining. IA claims that the two matters are unrelated, because Kvanefjeld is too close to inhabited areas and an agricultural zone, but their opponents have accused them of not accepting democracy and being hypocrites.
Many IA voters below 30 have apparently defected to the Democrats and with a trustworthy "man of the people" type as Kim Kielsen in charge Siumut has regained a bit and is now ahead. This is the worst IA result since May.

[ingemann]

Minister of Finance Vittus Qujaukitsoq from Siumut has finally - after massive pressure from the Democrats, IA and the Greenlands  Employers Association - released the revised budget numbers for 2014 and they show that Greenland will get a deficit around  275 million Danish kroner instead of the expected surplus of 21 million.

Election day tomorrow, this may be a gamechanger, but Siumut had a (surprising) lead in the last poll.

I heard one explanation, and I hope by God it's true, that Greenlandic polls can't be trusted (because of the small population and how heterodox the population are from settlement to settlement).

[politicus]

HS was somewhat off in 2013 and it is tricky to poll Greenland, but I think the overall tendency will hold. It has been a presidential election between folksy, down to earth Kim and academic, rational Sara and he has won the hearts and minds game by a wide margin. I don't think that there has ever been so wide a difference in personality between the leadership candidates in a Greenlandic election.

Add the uranium debacle, where Olsvig made a rational distinction between a concrete project and a general principle, that was all too easy to abuse by her opponents. IA has also been too honest about the sort of cuts Greenlands dire economic situation necessitates. Basically I think Olsvig may be a bit too honest and principled to be an efficient campaigner, which is a shame because those are admirable qualities in a politician.

But lets hope the "budget bomb" will swing some voters in the last moment.

[Diouf]

http://knr.gl/da/nyheder/f%C3%B8lg-valget-live-her-stemmer-reaktioner-billeder

Live update here with pictures, turnout percentages, and when the polls close, TV live streaming and results.

[ingemann]

One thing I found interesting in the covering of Greenlandic election and the background, is how much everybody in Denmark, who deal with Greenland, really despise Hammond, and it's not just her anti-Danish attitude, there have other who is and have been worse ("cough cough" Hans Enoksen), but they never disliked those people as much as they dislike Hammond.

[Jens]

HS was somewhat off in 2013 and it is tricky to poll Greenland, but I think the overall tendency will hold. It has been a presidential election between folksy, down to earth Kim and academic, rational Sara and he has won the hearts and minds game by a wide margin. I don't think that there has ever been so wide a difference in personality between the leadership candidates in a Greenlandic election.

Add the uranium debacle, where Olsvig made a rational distinction between a concrete project and a general principle, that was all too easy to abuse by her opponents. IA has also been too honest about the sort of cuts Greenlands dire economic situation necessitates. Basically I think Olsvig may be a bit too honest and principled to be an efficient campaigner, which is a shame because those are admirable qualities in a politician.

But lets hope the "budget bomb" will swing some voters in the last moment.

Yes, really a pitty that the very talented and honest Olsvig is having such a hard time. I really hope that the polls are wrong, but it seems like another folksy person from Siumut might win this

[politicus]

lloqqortoormiut (Scoresbysund) on the east coast, where 205 voted.

Inuit Ataqatigiit 34,6
Siumut, 33,7  
Partii Naleraq 16,6
Atassut  11,2
Democrats 0,5
Partii Inuit 0,0
Others 0,5
 

[Jens]

Exit Poll - If this hold, it will be a huge defeat for Siumut

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Seems like the exit poll was a bit off...

[politicus]

Seems like the exit poll was a bit off...

Not necessarily, they start with the small places and IAs strength is in the larger towns.

[politicus]

Aasiaat, 5th largest  town with 3500 inhabitants are in:

IA 50,2%
Siumut 19,5 %
Naleraq 10%
Democrats 8,7 %
Atassut  6,2 %
Partii Inuit 2,9 %

[politicus]

Half the votes counted. 9 out of 74 polling stations are still out incl. Nuuk with 30% of the population

Atassut: 1619 = 7,9%

Demokraatit: 1414 = 6,9%

Inuit Ataqatigiit: 5892 = 28,8%

Partii Inuit: 376 = 1,8%

Partii Naleraq: 2749 = 13,4%

Siumut: 8176 = 40,0%

Independents: 7

[politicus]

IA ahead with 2/3 counted. They got 35,7% vs. 29,9% to Siumut.


   

[politicus]

Unofficial final result according to KNR:

Siumut 34,3 (11)
Inuit Ataqatigiit 33,2  (11)
Democrats 11,8 (4)
Partii Naleraq 11,6 (3)
Atassut 6,5 (2)
Partii Inuit 1,6 (0)

[politicus]

Only 193 votes for former PM Lars Emil Johansen, that is a regular humiliation of the old boy, who thought he could make a comeback as chairman a month ago.

[politicus]

With 45,9% Naleraq + Siumut did better than the 42,8% Siumut got last time. So a net gain for the two "Siumuts", but Enoksen may prefer IA as partner.

[politicus]

The last regular poll turned out to be fairly close to the result, much closer than in previous elections. All differences inside the margin of error. Biggest difference was that Siumut lost 2,4% compared to the poll, which is logcal given the budget deficit.

[politicus]

Final result. 2013 in brackets.

Siumut: 34,3 (-8,5) 11
Inuit Ataqatigiit: 33,2 (-1,2) 11
Democrats: 11,8  (+5,6) 4
Partii Naleraq: 11,6 (new) 3
Atassut: 6,5 (-1,6) 2
Partii Inuit: 1,6  (-4,8) 0
Independents: 0,1 (+0,1) 0

Kattusseqatigiit Partiiat (KP) which got 1,1% last time didn't run, but their leader Anthon Frederiksen was elected for Naleraq.

Democrats are now the biggest centre-right party by far and have also gotten some young well educated urban voters from IA. Dissatisfied Siumut voters have probably mainly gone to Naleraq - keeping it in the family. Looks like Naleraq has also swallowed the KP vote with Frederiksen and gotten a big chunk of the Partii Inuit vote, but PI voters have likely gone to anywhere else than the Democrats, it was a very heterogeneous group. Atassut just keeps on sliding - young Greenlanders call it "the pensioners party", being in government with Siumut didn't help them, but they kept the second seat.