IL: Battleground Polling: Tie

[Miles]

Article.

Quinn (D)- 43%
Rauner (R)- 43%
Grimm (L)- 6%
Not sure- 8%


The sample size is small, at only 408. Almost too small for a statewide poll, IMO.

[muon2]

According to the article the poll was conducted by Rasmussen on Sep 23-24. Their own poll had Quinn 44-42 and overlapped that, taken from Sep 24-25. It's not clear if these are independent samples or if Rassy augmented the Battleground sample to bring the statistics up. The results are visibly close enough (including the Lib and undecided fractions) that they could well include some of the same data.

[CatoMinor]

I think it is safe to assume that unless Rauner is at least 3 or 5 points ahead of him in the polls then this race is safe Quinn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like to keep it tied, cant br behind by more than 3.