Has Pat Roberts Already Lost?

[KCDem]

Robert's is arguably running the most desperate campaign in the country right now, he's attacking Orman while really failing to address the problem Kansans have with him in the first place: that he's a fossil who is the definition of "going Washington." His attacks against Orman are desperate and this race reminds me a lot of the Cantor-Brat primary dynamic. So, has Pat Roberts already lost his race? Is it over for Virginia's third senator?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If a Democrat was down by this much, people would be insisting that it was already lost. For instance, Braley and Grimes are actually winning in today's polls, but people insist they've lost already.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

When Taylor first dropped out, I was near certain that the national establishment would take over, kick Roberts's sh*t in gear, and ultimately win out (but by a much closer margin than it should have been), but to this point they really haven't at all. All they've really done is dusted off Bob Dole and John McCain to go campaign for him and screech "Orman and Obama start with the same letter!!! COINCIDENCE!?!?! I THINK NOT!!!!!1!!!1!!one!111" Hopefully Roberts's loss will serve as a warning shot to lazy, disconnected "safe" incumbents everywhere.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Probably

[Vosem]

No. This race is basically unprecedented (CT-2006's general election was sorta similar, but with the parties reversed and the independent as the incumbent -- so not actually similar at all) and it is therefore very difficult to make these sorts of projections about it.

[Miles]

I think he barely still holds on, ATM, but he's gotten pretty darn desperate:

[eric82oslo]

When Taylor first dropped out, I was near certain that the national establishment would take over, kick Roberts's sh*t in gear, and ultimately win out (but by a much closer margin than it should have been), but to this point they really haven't at all. All they've really done is dusted off Bob Dole and John McCain to go campaign for him and screech "Orman and Obama start with the same letter!!! COINCIDENCE!?!?! I THINK NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" Hopefully Roberts's loss will serve as a warning shot to lazy, disconnected "safe" incumbents everywhere.

Soon they'll release an add which will finish with the question Roberts Or Obamaman?, trust me.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Most likely. Pubs still take the majority though.

[The Other Castro]

If a Democrat was down by this much, people would be insisting that it was already lost. For instance, Braley and Grimes are actually winning in today's polls, but people insist they've lost already.

Because they're Democrats in Purple and (atlas) blue states, and this is a Republican in Kansas where you have to account for a potential mega coming home effect. I do think Roberts still loses though.

[cinyc]

Is it election day?  No.  Then nobody has lost anything yet. Not even a candidate down 20, let alone 5.

[DrScholl]

If a Democrat was down by this much, people would be insisting that it was already lost. For instance, Braley and Grimes are actually winning in today's polls, but people insist they've lost already.

Double standards are silly, but they are common nonetheless.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is it election day?  No.  Then nobody has lost anything yet. Not even a candidate down 20, let alone 5.

Mark Pryor will be happy to hear that!

[Lief 🗽]

He's running an awful campaign, even (especially?) since the national party took over. But Orman is a bit of an empty suit and Kansas is very Republican, so it's too early to count him out.

[cinyc]

Is it election day?  No.  Then nobody has lost anything yet. Not even a candidate down 20, let alone 5.

Mark Pryor will be happy to hear that!

He should be.  Nobody wins an election until all the votes are counted.   Anything can happen before election day - an indictment, death,  scandal or whatever. Nothing is over until it is over.  Certainly not in early October.

[Smash255]

If a Democrat was down by this much, people would be insisting that it was already lost. For instance, Braley and Grimes are actually winning in today's polls, but people insist they've lost already.

Because they're Democrats in Purple and (atlas) blue states, and this is a Republican in Kansas where you have to account for a potential mega coming home effect. I do think Roberts still loses though.

You can account for that to a point, and would be a valid argument in other circumstances.  However, the Kansas Republican Party is having a brutal year all around, this isn't just isolated to Roberts.

[Mister Mets]

Probably not.

It's a rather conservative state and there are some unknowns. Orman's rise was a surprise, so it's possible that his numbers will come down to Earth. Part of the reason he's doing so well is that he's seen as an alternative to Republicans and Democrats. If he's painted as a generic Democrat, he'll probably lose. If voters see him a Perot supporter who voted for Romney things will likely be different.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I think he barely still holds on, ATM, but he's gotten pretty darn desperate:

People can go truly bizarre under lot amount of stress

[ElectionsGuy]

No

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No. There is still a month to go and Orman's various weaknesses can still be exploited enough to eake out a win here.