Bosnia and Herzegovina general election - October 12, 2014

[politicus]

The Central Electoral Commission: No further information tonight.

Press conference on Monday at 2pm when they will announce the preliminary results about all the 518 posts that were up for grabs in these elections.

Balkan Insight:
"What we know so far is that the Bakir Izetbegovic and Dragan Covic appear to have won the Bosniak and Croat seat in the presidency while the race for the Serb seat is still too close to call. On Monday we will also see how various parties did in the Federation and RS assembly and president as well as the cantonal assemblies".

Martin Raguz from HDZ1990: "When 100 per cent of votes are counted, I will be the winner of the Croat seat in the Presidency, not Dragan Covic."

Hope he is right...

[Zinneke]

The Central Electoral Commission: No further information tonight.

Press conference on Monday at 2pm when they will announce the preliminary results about all the 518 posts that were up for grabs in these elections.

Balkan Insight:
"What we know so far is that the Bakir Izetbegovic and Dragan Covic appear to have won the Bosniak and Croat seat in the presidency while the race for the Serb seat is still too close to call. On Monday we will also see how various parties did in the Federation and RS assembly and president as well as the cantonal assemblies".

Martin Raguz from HDZ1990: "When 100 per cent of votes are counted, I will be the winner of the Croat seat in the Presidency, not Dragan Covic."

Hope he is right...

Both of the HDZs are two sides of the same disgusting Ustashe-sympathising coin. Had the West not intervened and convinced Tudman to drop plans of a Greater Croatia, you would have seen similar to Srbrenica in the likes of Siroki Brijeg and Mostar (if the East had fell).

HDZ 1990 remains a successor party of the people responsible for that.

The SDP BiH has always been the lesser of many evils. Corrupt, incompetent, but not nationalist or religious (thank god that cleric got shafted in these elections too). Komsic's alternative is also a sound choice. But the Bosnian Croats have seemingly gone for nationalist parties instead.

[politicus]

Both of the HDZs are two sides of the same disgusting Ustashe-sympathising coin. Had the West not intervened and convinced Tudman to drop plans of a Greater Croatia, you would have seen similar to Srbrenica in the likes of Siroki Brijeg and Mostar (if the East had fell).

HDZ 1990 remains a successor party of the people responsible for that.

HDZ 1990 was taken over by moderates under Raguz last year and the hardliners have since left for HDZ BiH, even before that they were allied with the non-separatist HNZ and generally less hardcore. I have covered all that earlier in the thread.

(No offence, but why not read the thread from the start? I think I gave a lot of good info and your picture of Bosnian politics seems to be dated, first with not distinguishing between SNSD and SDS, the two main opponents in Srpska politics, and now with focusing on how HDZ 1990 used to be instead of the current situation)

[Zinneke]

Both of the HDZs are two sides of the same disgusting Ustashe-sympathising coin. Had the West not intervened and convinced Tudman to drop plans of a Greater Croatia, you would have seen similar to Srbrenica in the likes of Siroki Brijeg and Mostar (if the East had fell).

HDZ 1990 remains a successor party of the people responsible for that.

HDZ 1990 was taken over by moderates under Raguz last year and the hardliners have since left for HDZ BiH, even before that they were allied with the non-separatist HNZ and generally less hardcore. I have covered all that earlier in the thread.

(No offence, but why not read the thread from the start? I think I gave a lot of good info and your picture of Bosnian politics seems to be dated, first with not distinguishing between SNSD and SDS, the two main opponents in Srpska politics, and now with focusing on how HDZ 1990 used to be instead of the current situation)

It doesn't matter. The SDA in the Sandzak province don't advocate secession from Serbia, yet they are still the ones who consistently stir up nationalist tensions in the region. Are you going to paint them as moderates come Serbian election time too? The fact is these parties have a history that dates back to the Ustashe-apologists that set up the illegal state of Herceg-Bosna. Even if they have given up their pipe dream they still want only one thing : Croatian supremacy.

Do you remember when the SNSD were painted as ''moderates'' too? Apart from technicalities, there is nothing to distinguish SNSD and SDS, or the HDZs for that matter. Its just one mafia trying to replace another internally. The SDS and SNSD remain Serb nationalist parties with the long term goal of consolidating Sprska as an independent polity, symbolically attached to ''the Motherland'' to keep the real nationalists happy. So forgive me if I got the two mixed up when talking of Karadzic and his grip on Bosnian Serb politics. If I recall correctly both consider Karadzic to be a national hero.

If you look at the rhetoric all these minority interest parties employ in the country, you would understand why I find it laughable you call these people ''moderates''. Komsic is a moderate perhaps, the SDP has moderates. But HDZ-SDA-SNSD/SDS, the ''best of enemies'', being moderate?

[politicus]

No final result at 2PM local time as announced, since they are still counting, but the Bosnian Central Electoral Commission announced at the press conference, that according to preliminary results the Bosniak member of the tripartite presidency will be Bakir Izetbegovic from SDA, while the Croat member will be Dragan Covic from HDZ.

After 92% of the ballots were counted, Izetbegovic had 226,860 votes, beating his main rival Fahrudin Radoncic by around 40,000 votes, while Dragan Covic beat Martin Raguz of HDZ1990 by more than 30,000 votes.

But the race for the Serb seat in Bosnia's presidency is still too close to call (even if both candidates have done so! ). With 90% of the ballots counted the two main candidates remain very close.

Christian Democrat Mladen Ivanic running for the Alliance for Changes is leading with 279,822 votes, while Srpska Premier and "Iron Lady" Zeljka Cvijanovic from SNSD has 278,845 votes.

In the race for Srpska presidet the Central Election Commission said that after 85% of the votes were counted incumbent Milorad Dodik was leading Ognjen Tadic from SDS by just 2%.

The Central Electoral Commission is still calculating the votes for the parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but according to preliminary counts the leading parties were: SDA, DF, SBB, HDZBiH, SNSD and SDS in that order. So big loss for SDP apparently...

The parties that will do best in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s parliament were SDA, DF and SBB, while SDP will finish fifth - DF seems really to have cut into their base and will become the leading centre-left party.

In the Republika Srpska general elections the leading party was Dodik’s SNSD.

However, preliminary results showed that opposition parties set to take seats parliament will have more deputies than the SNSD and could oust Dodik’s government if they form a coalition. So maybe Domovina and SDS will have to cooperate (kind of like Sinn Fein and DUP working together in Northern Ireland, just with an even more bloody background).

[politicus]

Turnout was only 54.1%, so 2% lower than in 2010. Bosnians really don't trust their politicians (not that I blame them..).

[politicus]

Looking at the preliminary results for the parliaments its:

Bosnia - federation seats

SDA 27.8
DF 15.1
SBB 14.3
HDZ BIH + allies 12.2
SDP 9.7
HDZ 1990 4.2

Bosnia - Srpska seats

SNSD 39.6%
SDS 33.5%
PDP-NDP 7.9%   
DNS 6.1%
SDA 3.3%
Socialist Party 3.1%

Federation parliament

SDA 27.9
SBB 14.7
DF   12.7
HDZ BIH + allies 11.9
SDP 10.5
HDZ 1990 4.0

So better for SDP than first reported, but still bad.

Srpska parliament

SNSD 33.4
SDS + allies (Serb radicals, pensioners) 27.3
DNS 9.6
PDP 7.8
Socialist Party 5.1
NDP 5.0
DOMOVINA 3.5

Disappointing Domovina result.

Its interesting - though perhaps not surprising - that Martin Raguz himself has done good in the Presidency election, but his party has flopped in the parliamentary elections, where all the desertions wrecking havoc with the party organization must have hurt their capacity to mobilize voters and agitate locally.

[politicus]

Oh!, Ivanic leads! At MidNight his female opponent had 20.000 votes more, hadn't she?

Yes, it's a cliff hanger

[politicus]

With 90,2% counted in the Presidency race it is:

IVANIĆ 48.31% and CVIJANOVIĆ 48.14%!

Both the other races are settled. No chance for Raguz and the Berlusconi clone now.

With 85,5% counted Srpska President is also still close:

DODIK 47.1% vs. TADIĆ OGNJEN 45.2%

Link to the Central Election Commission: http://izbori.ba/Rezultati/2014/OpciIzbori2014/P/files/index.html

[politicus]

For President of Rep.Srb. 11% or 60.000 votes are uncounted. But Dodik is with nearly 10.000 ahead, so it seems to be decided.

It's 11,23% of the polling stations that are uncounted, we can't be sure that equals 11% of the votes.

[politicus]

Vote count is incredibly slow, but an update on the two close races:

With 91,6% of polling stations counted the Serbian member of the Presidency race is:
   
IVANIĆ, MLADEN
285.105   48.40%
   
CVIJANOVIĆ, ŽELJKA
283.166   48.07%

So only a 2.000 vote difference.

Srpska President - 93% of polling stations counted:
   
DODIK, MILORAD - SNSD-DNS-SP
286.279   46.68%
   
TADIĆ OGNJEN - SDS
276.345   45.06%

Dodik ahead by 10.000 votes. The difference is fairly stable, so Dodik will likely pull through (I find it unlikely that he will give up power when its this close, his people will "find" the necessary votes somehow..)

Really hope Ivanic makes it, because getting him in the Presidency would be just about the only unequivocally positive thing to come out of this disappointing election.

I suppose DF becoming the biggest centre-left party in the Federation is slightly encouraging and Martin Raguz getting 38,5% for the Croat Presidency seat shows that there is a substantial minority of moderate Croats, but SDA/HDZ victories after the whole "Bosnian Spring" is a genuine downer.

Ivanic winning or at least getting close and SNSD "only" getting around 1/3 of the votes for Srpska National Assembly are positives, but after the Bosnian Spring it is ironic that it is on the Serbian side there seems to be the most hope for change.

(and apart from Ivanic it is unclear whether change, if it happens, will be to the better..)

[politicus]

The vote count for the last polling stations is hardly moving at the moment - very small increases in today's update.

Meanwhile government talks are already under way in the Federation entity, where SDA, DF and HDZ BiH will be the main parties in a future coalition (representing 52,4% in the latest vote count), but smaller parties might join them.

SBB has already said they will stay in opposition and after their defeat it seems certain SDP will stay out as well given the bitter feud which led to SDAs exit from the SDP led coalition and bad blood between SDP and their fellow leftists in DF.

The situation in Srpska is still too unclear for any government talks, but the opposition might be able to take over (which will be interesting given that Dodik is likely to hang on as a powerful President).

[politicus]

Regarding Srpska:

Based on 87% of the votes SNSD won 33 per cent. Its main rival SDS, won around 27 per cent.

The right wingers DNS, came third with 9.4 per cent and is now in a position to help either of the two other parties form a government.

Its president Marko Pavic made a pre-election deal to support SNSD, as long as a member of his party was made Republika Srpska Prime Minister. This was the price for DNS supporting SNSD candidates for the posts of President of Republika Srpska and the Serbian seat on the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Some media reports in the Republika Srpska suggests that if the DNS does not get what it wants from the SNSD, it may ask the same of the SDS bloc instead.

The SNSD has held power in the entity since 2006, when it ended the previous rule by SDS. The SDS has been trying to regain power there ever since.

The SNSD can count on the backing of the Socialist Party (SP), which won around 5% of the votes.

On the SDS’s side are Ivanic PDP, which won around 8% and the People's Democratic Movement, NDP, which won around 5%.

Domovina came next with 4 per cent - but the coalition will not support either of the two leading Serbian parties because it represents Bosniaks who are post-war returnees.

So 47,5% on the SNSD side and 40% on the SDS side and 4% neutral, but the joker if SNSD is really willing to give DNS the Prime Ministe seat if Zelka C. doesnt beat Ivanic for the Presidency seat. She has her own supporters within SNSD and they might rebel, if Dodik tries to enforce the deal.

[politicus]

It is now official that all 10 cantons in the Federation will be ruled by one of the two big ethnic parties. The six Bosniak majority cantons by SDA and the four Croat majority by HDZ.
....

A good article on why Bosnians don't vote for non-ethnic parties despite distrusting their politicians and demonstrating for change.

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/blog/bosnia-voting-for-the-devil-you-know-1

"Taking into account municipal elections, which will be organized in two years, the math is simple: almost every second family in Bosnia is somehow linked to a political subject through one of its family members. In a similar exercise, Bosnia was labelled as a country with the most per capita parties in the world – one party per 20,000 citizens.

Since jobs are attached to party allegiances – just like the entire civil service – it would be a highly irrational behaviour to vote for a (moderate or new) party, which could generate uncertain changes and would not have links to the current job-procurement system.

Voting for a non-established, and non-national party would be too risky not only in the well-known “ethnic outbidding” logics but also for economic reasons. Entire families depend on one or two salaries of some of their members.

From this perspective, Bosnian electoral behaviour is highly rational and pragmatic."

[politicus]

By the way: What does the latest Census - published last year - say to rumors, that the Bosniaks would have an overal majority now?

Those numbers are not out yet.

"final results of the Census shall be published successively after completed data processing that is, in the period from 1 July 2014 to 1 July 2016."

They were expected to be released in July, but I think they (along with religion and other sensible data) were deliberately held back to after the election. They would be a confirmation of the ethnic cleansing (especially in Srpska) and with a 600.000 population drop the ethnic balance might also have changed.

Also, the census may not be that accurate. There was a campaign for people to register as "other" to break the ethnic quota system. In 1991 5% registered as Yugoslav, and it is also intereresting how those people and their descendants would identify now - possibly also as "other".

[YL]

It is now official that all 10 cantons in the Federation will be ruled by one of the two big ethnic parties. The seven Bosniak majority cantons by SDA and the three Croat majority by HDZ.
....

Have they come up with a proper name for "Canton 10" yet?

[politicus]

It is now official that all 10 cantons in the Federation will be ruled by one of the two big ethnic parties. The seven Bosniak majority cantons by SDA and the three Croat majority by HDZ.
....

Have they come up with a proper name for "Canton 10" yet?

No, and I doubt it is high on anybodies agenda to do so. Let sleeping dogs lie etc.

[politicus]

SDP Vice President and Bosnian Communication Minister Damir Hadzic and party General Secretary and Prime Minister of the Federation Nermin Niksic have resigned from all positions in the party. Since its chairman Zlatko Lagumdzija, who has been in charge of SDP since 1997, stepped down as leader right after the electoral defeat, this leaves SDP virtually leaderless.

An extraordinary party congress to choose a new leadership will be called next week, but there are no obvious replacements for the old guard since most talents have left for DF.

In the 2010 general elections SDP won more than 265.000 votes for the state parliament and a similar number for the Federation parliament making it the clear winner among the Bosniaks.

Having been in opposition for years and fiercely criticizing the ruling ethnic parties SDP represented a hope of change from the old ethnic-based parties.

But everything went wrong. SDP failed to form a government for 16 months and when it finally did form a coalition of six parties, it didn't take long for that coalition to fall apart.

They expelled the largest Bosniak party SDA from the government and brought in a new partner - populist SBB - and also hatched political deals with the largest Serbian party SNSD, before later forcing out SBB.

The SDP's most popular figure Zeljko Komsic, who twice won a seat on Bosnia's state Presidency, quit the party in frustration and formed DF last year.

At the general elections last Sunday SDP won only around 80,000 votes for the state parliament and ended up as the fifth largest party in the Federation. Many voters clearly deserted to Komsic's new founded DF, which won around 130,000 votes. So its up hill for any new leadership.

[GMantis]

It is now official that all 10 cantons in the Federation will be ruled by one of the two big ethnic parties. The seven Bosniak majority cantons by SDA and the three Croat majority by HDZ.
....

I thought there were four Croat majority cantons, though one of them (Herzegovina-Neretva) has only a slim majority. That's what the latest estimates seem to show, anyway.

By the way: What does the latest Census - published last year - say to rumors, that the Bosniaks would have an overal majority now?

Those numbers are not out yet.

"final results of the Census shall be published successively after completed data processing that is, in the period from 1 July 2014 to 1 July 2016."

They were expected to be released in July, but I think they (along with religion and other sensible data) were deliberately held back to after the election. They would be a confirmation of the ethnic cleansing (especially in Srpska) and with a 600.000 population drop the ethnic balance might also have changed.

Also, the census may not be that accurate. There was a campaign for people to register as "other" to break the ethnic quota system. In 1991 5% registered as Yugoslav, and it is also intereresting how those people and their descendants would identify now - possibly also as "other".

If the above mentioned estimates are correct, not many have done so, except in Velika Kladuša where they are probably still bitter at being treated like traitors.

[politicus]

It is now official that all 10 cantons in the Federation will be ruled by one of the two big ethnic parties. The seven six Bosniak majority cantons by SDA and the three four Croat majority by HDZ.

I thought there were four Croat majority cantons, though one of them (Herzegovina-Neretva) has only a slim majority. That's what the latest estimates seem to show, anyway.

Yes 2,7,8 and 10 all with HDZ as the biggest party. My bad.

[politicus]

The vote count is progressing incredible slowly, no info about why it is so hard to count the results from the remaining 5-11,5% of polling stations (depending on election type), probably lots of challenges regarding the validity of ballots. The Central Electoral Commission has said the final results will be confirmed by the end of the month. They are by law required to publish the official results no later than 30 days after the elections, so November 11 should be the latest date possible.

[politicus]

SNSD now call on SDA and HDZ to start talks on forming a government, since they have a clear majority between them.

Meanwhile DF is still pondering whether to try to get into government, whereas SDS leader Mladen Bosic has said that his party wants to get into the Council of Ministers (the Bosnian central government - or as close to a central government as Bosnia has..).

The Council of Ministers must by law comprise three ministers from each of the three main ethnic groups, making nine + a tenth minister from the category of "others", meaning ethnically undeclared or minorities. According to the agreed rotation principle the Prime Minister will be a Bosniak this time around. So SDA will likely get to choose between the two big Serbian parties.

SDA spokesman Adil Osmanovic has said that both the cantonal assemblies in the Federation and the Federation entity government have to be formed before they will talk Council of Minister distribution, since it would be best for the parties that form majorities in the entities to replicate the same pattern at the state level as “the experience of the last four years in the Federation is that when we have different political parties at different levels, the authorities can't function” (he thinks the process could be completed by February).

According to this principle it will likely be SNSD that gets into the council since SNSD chairman Igor Radojicic says they and their partners in DNS and the Socialist Party have enough seats in the National Assembly to form the entity government,

With Dodik winning the Presidential election SNSD are hanging on to power in Srpska, but it looks shaky. They can't afford many deserters.

[politicus]

Bosnia's Central Electoral Commission has at long last published the final results, confirming the victory of the main ethnic-based parties.

The new members of Bosnia's tripartite Presidency are Mladen Ivanic, Bakir Izetbegovic and Dragan Covic.
Ivanic won 318,196 votes, about 8,000 more than former Srpska Premier Zeljka Cvijanovic from SNDS. Izetbegovic won the Bosniak seat with 247,235 votes, more than 45,000 votes ahead of his main opponent Fahrudin Radoncic. Dragan Covic is the new Croatian member of the Presidency winning 128,053 votes, more than 30,000 votes ahead of Martin Raguz.

Around 45,000 invalid ballots were cast for the Presidency members in Bosnia's Federation entity, which may indidcate widespread discontent with the political class.

Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina – 42 seats, 28 of which are elected in the Federation and 14 in Republika Srpska.

Federation:

SDA 9
DF 5
SBB 4
HDZ 4
SDP 3
HDZ 1990 1
Bosnian Patriotic Party (BPS) 1
Party of Democratic Activity (A-SDA) 1

Republika Srpska:

SNSD 6
SDS 5
PDP/NDP 1
DNS 1
SDA 1

Milorad Dodik was reelected as President of Republika Srpska with 302,573 votes, which was around 7,000 votes more than his main rival Ognjen Tadic from SDS.

Republika Srpska

National Assembly (83)

SNSD 29
SDS 24
DNS 8
PDP 7
Domovina 5
NDP 5
Socialist Party (SP) 5

SNSD, DNS and SP have a narrow 42 seat majority and will likely form the new entity government in Republika Srpska according to Dodik.

With regards to the state-level government Dodik has said, that SNSD is already talking to HDZ and will finish those talks this week.

Federation parliament (99)
SDA 29
SBB 16
DF 14
HDZ 13
SDP 11
HDZ1990 4
BPS 4
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) 3
A-SDA 2  
Our Party 1
NS 1
Labour Party (LS) 1

[politicus]

SDA has agreed on Professor of Architecture Denis Zvizdic (50) from Bakir Izetbegovic wing as the next President of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina (=Prime Minister). He beat Adil Osmanović (51)  (the former Deputy President in Srpska).
Zvizdic is ex Prime Minister of the Sarajevo Canton and Speaker of the Sarajevo Cantonal Assembly. Dunno much about him, but got 10.000+ personal votes in the election.

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/bosnia-party-choses-state-prime-minister