Bosnia and Herzegovina general election - October 12, 2014

[GMantis]

Parties in the Federation:

Multiethnic parties

#Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SDP HiP is the successor to the old Communist party and a multiethnic, secular Social Democratic party in favour of a united Bosnia. Has 8 seats in the House. It is countrywide and also has a few seats in the Srpska National Assembly.

Democratic Front - DF is a Socialist/Social Democratic, multiethnic and secular party started in 2012 by the Croat member of the Presidency  Željko Komšić as a breakaway from SDP in protest against that they accepted the right wingers in HDZ joining the government. Komšić is an outsider in Bosnian Croatic politics and was elected mainly on Bosniak votes, so he is seen as an illegitimate representative for the Croats by many Croats (and Serbs). No seats in the House.

#People's Party for Work and Betterment - NSRzB is a small Social Liberal, secular and multiethnic (but mainly Croat) party with 1 seat in the House.

Democratic People's Union - DNZ is a strange mix of economic Libertarianism, euro-scepticism, homophobia and local patriotism  founded in 1993 by oligarch and war criminal Fikret Abdić, who led the small Velika Kladuša enclave in NW Bosnia during the war and collaborated with the Serbs. It is Bosniak-Croatian bi-ethnic and committed to regional autonomy for Velika Kladuša. Abdić was in jail 2002-12 for war crimes and is no longer leader of the party. It has 1 seat in the House.

Of course multi-ethnic is a bit of a misnomer. The SDP, for example receives nearly all of its votes from Bosniaks. On that note, will the Croats' representative again be elected by the Bosniaks for them?

http://balkanist.net/bosnia-herzegovina-election-guide-personalities-parties-prospects/2/

Komsic's Democratic Front party could unite the ethnicities in an anti-corruption movement. Though I can't see any progress in Republika Sprska, where reform is most needed, until Dodik is out of office.

Why would reforms be more needed in Republika Srpska? Unlike the Federation, it isn't divided into cantons to further complicate governing and their citizens seem to be more satisfied than those of the Federation, considering their low participation in the demonstrations at the beginning of the year.

[GMantis]

SDP may primarily attract Bosniak voters in the Federation, but it is a party with both Croat, Serb, Jewish and Roma members and a long term goal of a united multiethnic secular Bosnia.

While these declared aims are very noble, a party that receives most of its voters from only one ethnicity is not likely to be very interested in addressing the issues that matter to other ethnicities. And having representatives from other ethnicities won't help if they're considered traitors by their co-ethnics (like the above mentioned Komšić). And depending on how "united" is interpreted, it's not something that would be popular among the Serbs or the Croats.

[GMantis]

It is now official that all 10 cantons in the Federation will be ruled by one of the two big ethnic parties. The seven Bosniak majority cantons by SDA and the three Croat majority by HDZ.
....

I thought there were four Croat majority cantons, though one of them (Herzegovina-Neretva) has only a slim majority. That's what the latest estimates seem to show, anyway.

By the way: What does the latest Census - published last year - say to rumors, that the Bosniaks would have an overal majority now?

Those numbers are not out yet.

"final results of the Census shall be published successively after completed data processing that is, in the period from 1 July 2014 to 1 July 2016."

They were expected to be released in July, but I think they (along with religion and other sensible data) were deliberately held back to after the election. They would be a confirmation of the ethnic cleansing (especially in Srpska) and with a 600.000 population drop the ethnic balance might also have changed.

Also, the census may not be that accurate. There was a campaign for people to register as "other" to break the ethnic quota system. In 1991 5% registered as Yugoslav, and it is also intereresting how those people and their descendants would identify now - possibly also as "other".

If the above mentioned estimates are correct, not many have done so, except in Velika Kladuša where they are probably still bitter at being treated like traitors.