Bosnia and Herzegovina general election - October 12, 2014

[politicus]

It's getting close and we need a place to put the results and talk about them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_general_election,_2014

They elect:

1) The three members of the confederate Presidency (1 Serb, 1 Bosniak, 1 Croat)
2) A confederate House of Representatives  (14 from Srpska and 28 from the Fed)
3) Presidents of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska
4) House of Representatives for the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and National Assembly for Republika  Srpska.


  

[politicus]

I will try a short party description:

Srpska is the easiest because they only have four parties (of any significance), while the Fed has nine. It's mostly a matter of how crazy their version of nationalism is.

Parties in Republika Srpska

SNSD - Alliance of Independent Social Democrats under President Milorad Dodik are Serb nationalists and Social Democrats. Dodiks political gimmick is separatism and a breakaway from Bosnia, which he threatens all the time - so far without acting on it.  They have 8 seats out of 14 in the House.

Alliance for Changes:

SDS - Serb Democratic Party is a populist, Islamophobic and ultranationalist party started by former leader, child psychiatrist and war criminal Radovan Karadzic. Its non-separatist, unless Srpska can be united directly with the Motherland. They have 4 seats.

PDP - Party of Democratic Progress is Christian Democratic and a normal centre-right party with ties to Western mainstream parties such as CDU and the Tories. Has one seat and is the least nationalist option.

DNS - Democratic National Alliance or Democratic People's Alliance is a Nationalist Conservative party with a more right wing economic policy than SDS and a slightly less extreme version of Serbian nationalism (but more extreme than SNSD). Has one seat.

Others:

Domovina (Homeland) is an alliance of seven non-Serbian parties incl. SDA and DF, but not SDP.

The Bosnian Social Democrats (SDP) and Muslim SDA currently have a few seats in the National Assembly, as Srpska has a Muslim minority and some Serbs vote for the Bosnian Social Democrats (mostly elderly ex-communists).

[politicus]

Parties in the Federation:

Multiethnic parties

#Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SDP HiP is the successor to the old Communist party and a multiethnic, secular Social Democratic party in favour of a united Bosnia. Has 8 seats in the House. It is countrywide and also has a few seats in the Srpska National Assembly.

Democratic Front - DF is a Socialist/Social Democratic, multiethnic and secular party started in 2012 by the Croat member of the Presidency  Željko Komšić as a breakaway from SDP in protest against that they accepted the right wingers in HDZ joining the government. Komšić is an outsider in Bosnian Croatic politics and was elected mainly on Bosniak votes, so he is seen as an illegitimate representative for the Croats by many Croats (and Serbs). No seats in the House.

#People's Party for Work and Betterment - NSRzB is a small Social Liberal, secular and multiethnic (but mainly Croat) party with 1 seat in the House.

Democratic People's Union - DNZ is a strange mix of economic Libertarianism, euro-scepticism, homophobia and local patriotism  founded in 1993 by oligarch and war criminal Fikret Abdić, who led the small Velika Kladuša enclave in NW Bosnia during the war and collaborated with the Serbs. It is Bosniak-Croatian bi-ethnic and committed to regional autonomy for Velika Kladuša. Abdić was in jail 2002-12 for war crimes and is no longer leader of the party. It has 1 seat in the House.


Bosniak parties

Party of Democratic Action - SDA is a moderate Islamist and Bosniak Nationalist centre-right party led by current Bosnian President Bakir Izetbegović, son of war time leader Alija Izetbegović, but deeply divided between supporters of recently diseased former President Sulejman Tihic and the Izetbegović loyalists - both factions awaiting a leadership contest in 2015. Has 7 seats in the House.

Union for a Better Future of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SBB BiH is a right wing populist/ conservative Bosniak party founded in 2009 by media mogul Fahrudin Radončić, the owner of Bosnia's largest daily Dnevni Avaz, as a Bosnian version of Forza Italia. It has 4 seats in the House.

Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina - PBiH was founded by former Prime Minister Haris Silajdžić  in 1997 as a splinter group from SDA and is a secular fairly centrist Conservative Bosniak party. Is in favour of a united Bosnia and wants to dismantle Srpska, but has a better relationship to the Croats than SDA. Haris Silajdžić was President of the Federation 2006-10. It has 2 seats in the House.


Croatian parties

The Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina - HDZ BiH is a Christian Democratic (some say ultraconservative..) and Croatian Nationalist party with ties to its mother party HDZ in Croatia (most Bosnian Croats are Croatian citizens and can vote in Croatian elections). Its goal is a separate Croat entity within Bosnia and it is the strongest Croatian party and has 3 seats in the House.

The Croatian Democratic Union 1990 - HDZ 1990 (the year HDZ BiH was founded, so = "original version") was until recently a more SoCon and HDZ loyal version of HDZ BiH founded as a splinter group in 2006 by former President Božo Ljubić, who earlier this year left them and rejoined HDZ BiH. Seems to be disintegrating with several other senior figures leaving them this year after a moderate takeover of the party in July 2013 when Martin Raguz became chairman and a decision to run on HNZ lists. They oppose an independent Croat entity in Bosnia. Has 1 seat in the House.

#Croatian Party of Rights of Bosnia and Herzegovina - HNZ is a Croatian Nationalist and Conservative party descended from the Croats that were opposed to a Greater Croatia (as HDZ) and wanted a Bosnian-Croatian alliance during the war. Now shares a group with HDZ 1990. Is mainly the anti-HDZ option, but with the same kind of conservative policies apart from not wanting a separate Croat entity. Has 1 seat in the House.

EDIT: The current government in the Federation consists of the three parties marked with an # with the SDP supplying the Prime Minister.

Vjekoslav Bevanda from HDZ is Chairman of the Council of Ministers (= confederate "Prime Minister") leading a government of SDP, HDZ and SNDS, but the confederate government is weak in Bosnia.

[politicus]

US Institute of Peace discussion of the crisis in Bosnia (basically their political structure guarantees nothing happens - gridlock forever - and the economy is in shambles with incompetence and corruption making it worse) and the violent protests against the situation in February-April ("the Bosnian Spring").

"Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the deepest political crisis since the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the war in 1995. Years of political deadlock, dire economic conditions including an unemployment rate hovering above 44 percent, and growing impatience by citizens with their political leaders, fueled violent protests across the country and led a number of government officials to resign. The constitutional structure designed in Dayton succeeded in ending the war but its critics argue that it has prevented the country from developing beyond wartime divisions."

http://www.usip.org/events/general-election-2014-and-the-protests-in-bosnia-change-possible

[politicus]

Former Grand Mufti Mustafa Ceric is running as an independent for the Bosniak seat in the Presidency and is apparently a strong outsider.

[politicus]

Guardian background article with a good snap overview of the current crisis and political situation.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/08/bosnia-herzegovina-elections-the-worlds-most-complicated-system-of-government

"The outgoing government and parliament have been dubbed the worst ever. 106 laws were adopted by parliament in the past four years, down from the 180 between 2006-2010. As a comparison, over the same period the Montenegrin government adopted about 350 laws, Serbia 500 and Croatia about 750."

They also quote this report from the Bosnian Center of Civil Initiatives on just how inefficient the Bosnian government is:

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/bosnian-top-govt-marked-worst-so-far

[politicus]

http://balkanist.net/bosnia-herzegovina-election-guide-personalities-parties-prospects/2/

Komsic's Democratic Front party could unite the ethnicities in an anti-corruption movement. Though I can't see any progress in Republika Sprska, where reform is most needed, until Dodik is out of office.

Dodik would be replaced with SDS, which is "from the ashes to the fire".

Well, to be fair their leader is less megalomaniac than Dodik, but so are virtually everyone in this universe. Still, I wouldn't exactly call it an improvement.

[politicus]

Why is this one country?

That probably wasn't an actual question , but basically because the world community wont let the Serbs leave, since it would reward them even more than they have already been rewarded for the atrocities they committed in the 90s and set a highly problematic precedent.

[politicus]

On that note, will the Croats' representative again be elected by the Bosniaks for them?

The election law is unchanged. Both the Bosniak and the Croat member of the Presidency will be elected by the voters that choose to use their vote on them, and since the Bosniaks is the biggest group they can be decisive in electing the Croat member - if many of them choose to vote for a Croat and concentrate behind one candidate to stop HDZ.

SDP may primarily attract Bosniak voters in the Federation, but it is a party with both Croat, Serb, Jewish and Roma members and a long term goal of a united multiethnic secular Bosnia.

[politicus]

Take a quick look at the unemployment rates in the RS, the rampant chauvinism that disgusts even the supposed reactionaries in Serbia proper, and the fact that Radovan Karadzic's successor party is still in power and openly boasts about the ethnic cleansing of RS.

Furthermore they are the ones blocking any transfer of powers to the Federal government. The secular Croats are willing to give more responsibility to the higher entity.

SDS is in opposition.

[politicus]

Take a quick look at the unemployment rates in the RS, the rampant chauvinism that disgusts even the supposed reactionaries in Serbia proper, and the fact that Radovan Karadzic's successor party is still in power and openly boasts about the ethnic cleansing of RS.

Furthermore they are the ones blocking any transfer of powers to the Federal government. The secular Croats are willing to give more responsibility to the higher entity.

SDS is in opposition.

My mistake, I thought the old SDS had merged with other parties to form the SNSD. Turns out they still exist. Are they as openly secessionist as Dodik though. In the article I posted above the SDS was called pro-Bosnian by the SNSD. Is there any substantial evidence behind this accusation or is it just part of endless insults tossed between the entities.

SDS is against establishing a Srpska mini-state (with Dodik in even more total control than he is today), so they oppose his secessionist project.

In the OP I phrased it: "Its non-separatist, unless Srpska can be united directly with the Motherland", and that's my impression of their position.

[politicus]

An observer group from the International Democracy Institute has the following evaluation in an Election Watch report published two days ago (slightly edited and with my comments in italics):

Races to watch

Races for the Bosnian state Presidency, as well as for Srpska Presidency and Parliament continue to be close.

Presidency:

Bosniak member:

An unprecedented 10 candidates are competing in the race for the Bosniak member of the BiH presidency. The Big Four are: Fahrudin Radončić (SBB), Emir Suljagic (DF), Bakir Izetbegovic (SDA) and Bakir Hadziomerovic (SDP) - who according to local media leads in polls - with slim margins between them. Despite Hadziomerovics lead a slight advantage is usually given to Izetbegovic as the incumbent. He has drawn flack for not responding to any invitations to participate in candidate debates, but in focusing their criticism on Izetbegovic the other candidates have struggled to differentiate their respective plans and positions. The presidency election is pure FPTP with no run-off.

Emir Suljagic would be the best of the bunch (unless you are very conservative), DF is the only real hope of change and accomodation of some of the demands from the protests. SDA/SDP is the (inefficient and corrupt) establishment and SBB Berlusconi style populism.

Croat member:

The outcome for the race for the Croat member is also uncertain, with Dragan Covic (HDZ BiH) and Martin Raguz (HDZ 1990) as the two top candidates. While HDZ BiH’s campaign has focused largely on the so-called “Croat question,” (etablishing a separate Croatian entity in BiH) Covic has used several opportunities to steer messaging to the importance of EU integration and economic development. Raguz has similarly presented a strong European vision for Bosnia.

Its interesting that the new moderate HDZ 1990 is competitive. Martin Raguz is a lot better than Covic.

Serbian member:

Local media report a very close races between Zeljka Cvijanovic (SNSD) and Mladen Ivanic (PDP) (also backed by SDS as part of the opposition Alliance for Changes) for the Serb member of the Bosnian Presidency.

Ivanic is a moderate and getting him in the Presidency would be a huge improvement. He is a prominent economist and was Bosnia’s Foreign Minister from 2003 to 2007, so also well qualified.

So, despite the generally dismal state of Bosnian politics, this time there will actually be candidates to cheer for in all three Presidency elections.

Srpska parliament:

The opposition parties in the Alliance for Changes (SDS led) have shown readiness to unite against the ruling SNSD, though they have struggled to translate strong public dissatisfaction over government performance into robust support for the coalition by not presenting a unified platform. For the first time in the past decade SNSD does not have predominant support among of voters, which could put SNSD-leader Milorad Dodik at risk of losing to Ognjen Tadic (SDS) for Srpska President, with projections varying from week to week. And while campaign refrains have returned again to defending Srpska, opposition parties – particularly SDS, which was recognized by the Sarajevo-based Alumni Center for Interdisciplinary Studies (ACIPS) as offering more concrete measures in its campaign than other parties – have campaigned on economic development.

As unnatural as it feels to root for SDS, I  hope the Alliance for Changes wins. Dodik is terrible and some of the non-SDS types in AfC are rather good by the look of it + SDS unlike Dodik at least has a rational view of the economy. Obviously hoping for a good election for the minority coalition in Dorovina and that the usually very low turnout among non-Serbs will pick up, now that they have a real chance of influencing things. Dorovina holding the balance of power would be really interesting!

[politicus]

Stjepan Mikic, head of Central Electoral Commission says that based on 76.5 per cent of the counted ballots Bakir Izetbegovic from SDA, is leading the race for the  Bosniak seat of the Presidency ahead of Fahrudin Radoncic with a difference of more than 40,000 votes.

Dragan Covic from the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) is leading the race ahead of his opponent Martin Raguz with about 20,000 votes  difference.

For the Serb seat in the presidency, Zeljka Cvijanovic from SNSD has the lead in a tight race with Mladen Ivanic - the difference is only of few thousand votes - but only based on 52 per cent of counted ballots. Thus, the situation could easily change.

How the candidates view it themselves:
"Dragan Covic, president of the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ BiH, and a candidate of that party for the Croat seat in the country's Presidency has declared victory.

The Party of Democratic Progress, PDP, announced victory of their candidate Mladen Ivanic for the Serb seat in the Presidency."

[politicus]

SDA, SDS, and HDZ all won.

Super.

SNSD if you are talking about Presidency, SDS doesn't run in that one.

But Ivanic was leading with 53.5 per cent against Zeljka Cvijanovic with 41.3 per cent in the last poll, so its disappointing if he doesnt make it.

Raguz also had a small lead over Covic in that poll.

Ivanic still has a chance, though.

[politicus]

The Central Electoral Commission: No further information tonight.

Press conference on Monday at 2pm when they will announce the preliminary results about all the 518 posts that were up for grabs in these elections.

Balkan Insight:
"What we know so far is that the Bakir Izetbegovic and Dragan Covic appear to have won the Bosniak and Croat seat in the presidency while the race for the Serb seat is still too close to call. On Monday we will also see how various parties did in the Federation and RS assembly and president as well as the cantonal assemblies".

Martin Raguz from HDZ1990: "When 100 per cent of votes are counted, I will be the winner of the Croat seat in the Presidency, not Dragan Covic."

Hope he is right...

[politicus]

Both of the HDZs are two sides of the same disgusting Ustashe-sympathising coin. Had the West not intervened and convinced Tudman to drop plans of a Greater Croatia, you would have seen similar to Srbrenica in the likes of Siroki Brijeg and Mostar (if the East had fell).

HDZ 1990 remains a successor party of the people responsible for that.

HDZ 1990 was taken over by moderates under Raguz last year and the hardliners have since left for HDZ BiH, even before that they were allied with the non-separatist HNZ and generally less hardcore. I have covered all that earlier in the thread.

(No offence, but why not read the thread from the start? I think I gave a lot of good info and your picture of Bosnian politics seems to be dated, first with not distinguishing between SNSD and SDS, the two main opponents in Srpska politics, and now with focusing on how HDZ 1990 used to be instead of the current situation)

[politicus]

No final result at 2PM local time as announced, since they are still counting, but the Bosnian Central Electoral Commission announced at the press conference, that according to preliminary results the Bosniak member of the tripartite presidency will be Bakir Izetbegovic from SDA, while the Croat member will be Dragan Covic from HDZ.

After 92% of the ballots were counted, Izetbegovic had 226,860 votes, beating his main rival Fahrudin Radoncic by around 40,000 votes, while Dragan Covic beat Martin Raguz of HDZ1990 by more than 30,000 votes.

But the race for the Serb seat in Bosnia's presidency is still too close to call (even if both candidates have done so! ). With 90% of the ballots counted the two main candidates remain very close.

Christian Democrat Mladen Ivanic running for the Alliance for Changes is leading with 279,822 votes, while Srpska Premier and "Iron Lady" Zeljka Cvijanovic from SNSD has 278,845 votes.

In the race for Srpska presidet the Central Election Commission said that after 85% of the votes were counted incumbent Milorad Dodik was leading Ognjen Tadic from SDS by just 2%.

The Central Electoral Commission is still calculating the votes for the parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but according to preliminary counts the leading parties were: SDA, DF, SBB, HDZBiH, SNSD and SDS in that order. So big loss for SDP apparently...

The parties that will do best in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s parliament were SDA, DF and SBB, while SDP will finish fifth - DF seems really to have cut into their base and will become the leading centre-left party.

In the Republika Srpska general elections the leading party was Dodik’s SNSD.

However, preliminary results showed that opposition parties set to take seats parliament will have more deputies than the SNSD and could oust Dodik’s government if they form a coalition. So maybe Domovina and SDS will have to cooperate (kind of like Sinn Fein and DUP working together in Northern Ireland, just with an even more bloody background).

[politicus]

Turnout was only 54.1%, so 2% lower than in 2010. Bosnians really don't trust their politicians (not that I blame them..).

[politicus]

Looking at the preliminary results for the parliaments its:

Bosnia - federation seats

SDA 27.8
DF 15.1
SBB 14.3
HDZ BIH + allies 12.2
SDP 9.7
HDZ 1990 4.2

Bosnia - Srpska seats

SNSD 39.6%
SDS 33.5%
PDP-NDP 7.9%   
DNS 6.1%
SDA 3.3%
Socialist Party 3.1%

Federation parliament

SDA 27.9
SBB 14.7
DF   12.7
HDZ BIH + allies 11.9
SDP 10.5
HDZ 1990 4.0

So better for SDP than first reported, but still bad.

Srpska parliament

SNSD 33.4
SDS + allies (Serb radicals, pensioners) 27.3
DNS 9.6
PDP 7.8
Socialist Party 5.1
NDP 5.0
DOMOVINA 3.5

Disappointing Domovina result.

Its interesting - though perhaps not surprising - that Martin Raguz himself has done good in the Presidency election, but his party has flopped in the parliamentary elections, where all the desertions wrecking havoc with the party organization must have hurt their capacity to mobilize voters and agitate locally.

[politicus]

Oh!, Ivanic leads! At MidNight his female opponent had 20.000 votes more, hadn't she?

Yes, it's a cliff hanger

[politicus]

With 90,2% counted in the Presidency race it is:

IVANIĆ 48.31% and CVIJANOVIĆ 48.14%!

Both the other races are settled. No chance for Raguz and the Berlusconi clone now.

With 85,5% counted Srpska President is also still close:

DODIK 47.1% vs. TADIĆ OGNJEN 45.2%

Link to the Central Election Commission: http://izbori.ba/Rezultati/2014/OpciIzbori2014/P/files/index.html

[politicus]

For President of Rep.Srb. 11% or 60.000 votes are uncounted. But Dodik is with nearly 10.000 ahead, so it seems to be decided.

It's 11,23% of the polling stations that are uncounted, we can't be sure that equals 11% of the votes.

[politicus]

Vote count is incredibly slow, but an update on the two close races:

With 91,6% of polling stations counted the Serbian member of the Presidency race is:
   
IVANIĆ, MLADEN
285.105   48.40%
   
CVIJANOVIĆ, ŽELJKA
283.166   48.07%

So only a 2.000 vote difference.

Srpska President - 93% of polling stations counted:
   
DODIK, MILORAD - SNSD-DNS-SP
286.279   46.68%
   
TADIĆ OGNJEN - SDS
276.345   45.06%

Dodik ahead by 10.000 votes. The difference is fairly stable, so Dodik will likely pull through (I find it unlikely that he will give up power when its this close, his people will "find" the necessary votes somehow..)

Really hope Ivanic makes it, because getting him in the Presidency would be just about the only unequivocally positive thing to come out of this disappointing election.

I suppose DF becoming the biggest centre-left party in the Federation is slightly encouraging and Martin Raguz getting 38,5% for the Croat Presidency seat shows that there is a substantial minority of moderate Croats, but SDA/HDZ victories after the whole "Bosnian Spring" is a genuine downer.

Ivanic winning or at least getting close and SNSD "only" getting around 1/3 of the votes for Srpska National Assembly are positives, but after the Bosnian Spring it is ironic that it is on the Serbian side there seems to be the most hope for change.

(and apart from Ivanic it is unclear whether change, if it happens, will be to the better..)

[politicus]

The vote count for the last polling stations is hardly moving at the moment - very small increases in today's update.

Meanwhile government talks are already under way in the Federation entity, where SDA, DF and HDZ BiH will be the main parties in a future coalition (representing 52,4% in the latest vote count), but smaller parties might join them.

SBB has already said they will stay in opposition and after their defeat it seems certain SDP will stay out as well given the bitter feud which led to SDAs exit from the SDP led coalition and bad blood between SDP and their fellow leftists in DF.

The situation in Srpska is still too unclear for any government talks, but the opposition might be able to take over (which will be interesting given that Dodik is likely to hang on as a powerful President).

[politicus]

Regarding Srpska:

Based on 87% of the votes SNSD won 33 per cent. Its main rival SDS, won around 27 per cent.

The right wingers DNS, came third with 9.4 per cent and is now in a position to help either of the two other parties form a government.

Its president Marko Pavic made a pre-election deal to support SNSD, as long as a member of his party was made Republika Srpska Prime Minister. This was the price for DNS supporting SNSD candidates for the posts of President of Republika Srpska and the Serbian seat on the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Some media reports in the Republika Srpska suggests that if the DNS does not get what it wants from the SNSD, it may ask the same of the SDS bloc instead.

The SNSD has held power in the entity since 2006, when it ended the previous rule by SDS. The SDS has been trying to regain power there ever since.

The SNSD can count on the backing of the Socialist Party (SP), which won around 5% of the votes.

On the SDS’s side are Ivanic PDP, which won around 8% and the People's Democratic Movement, NDP, which won around 5%.

Domovina came next with 4 per cent - but the coalition will not support either of the two leading Serbian parties because it represents Bosniaks who are post-war returnees.

So 47,5% on the SNSD side and 40% on the SDS side and 4% neutral, but the joker if SNSD is really willing to give DNS the Prime Ministe seat if Zelka C. doesnt beat Ivanic for the Presidency seat. She has her own supporters within SNSD and they might rebel, if Dodik tries to enforce the deal.