KS: Gravis: Republicans easily win

[Miles]

Article.

Paul (R)- 48%
Clinton (D)- 38%

Bush (R)- 49%
Clinton (D)- 38%

[Tender Branson]

Even with that Dem-favorable "likely 2014 voter screen" the 2016 Republicans are far ahead of Hillary.

That tells you in how much of a dump Browncrook and Roberts are really ...

[eric82oslo]

Now I understand why all Gravis polls are so terribly skewed. It's due to their insane samples of the population. These 3 questions reveal that:


1. What is your political party affiliation?

54% Republican
25% Democrat
21% Independent


2. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

85% Post Graduate, Some College or Bachelor's Degree
15% High School Graduate or Some High School


3. How old are you?

67% Over 50
33% 18-49


I mean, come oooooooon. How can they even justify releasing polls with such horrible sampling? PPP would never, I repeat never do that, which their boss has stated publicly many, many times. Surely 85% of Kansans - that famously rural state, the very heartland of US agricultural production (although climate change/severe drought has taken a toll on over that the last five years or so, as a result production is down up to 90% in some parts of Colorado and Kansas from where it was just 5-6 years ago, according to a BBC documentary I saw tonight about the increase in worldwide food prices) - have studied at universities or college! The real figure is probably between 30% and 40%, although I wouldn't be surprised if it was below 30% either. It is Kansas after all. Not New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York or New Hampshire.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now I understand why all Gravis polls are so terribly skewed. It's due to their insane samples of the population. These 3 questions reveal that:


1. What is your political party affiliation?

54% Republican
25% Democrat
21% Independent


2. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

85% Post Graduate, Some College or Bachelor's Degree
15% High School Graduate or Some High School


3. How old are you?

67% Over 50
33% 18-49

Yep, terrible skewing going on, although the biggest skew is in the age category, not the education category.

These are the 2012 exit poll results. There wasn't an exit poll here in 2010, so we'll just have to make do:

Political Party Affiliation:

Republican: 48%
Democrat: 27%
Independent/Other: 24%

Okay, so Gravis made the electorate more conservative, perhaps by a bit more than they should have even in a midterm, but not a HUGE concern (8 point R/D net margin difference from 2012). Moving on:

Did You Attend College:

Yes: 75%
No: 25%

So, yes, most Kansans do attend college, but does a 20 point net margin difference from 2012 really sound plausible? Nice try, Gravis.

This statistic may have been what you were thinking about:

Did You Graduate From College:

No: 54%
Yes: 46%


On age, though, bring out the skewing:


Your Age:

50+: 49%
18-49: 50%

So, we go from a one point margin in favor of the young, to a 34 point margin in favor of the old? Do you really expect me to believe you, Gravis? Welcome to the trash can.

------------

Also, Brownback's Approval in 2012 was 55/35. Bet he'd love to have that back right about now.

[eric82oslo]

Thanks for those stats Wulfric. I'm impressed that 75% of Kansas adults have attended college and that a majority even graduated from there. Maybe my less than 40% would be those who have attended universities alone. In any case, it's deeply impressive that the (vast) majority in such a mostly rural and relatively poor state. I guess the education numbers are above similar states like Oklahoma and Nebraska. It's probably closer to the corresponding Colorado numbers, would be my wild guess at least. At the same time I do realize that most professions do require some college education these days. Yet still, a whole lot do not. And for the baby boomer generation and the generation preceeding that, higher education wasn't yet as readily available and common as it is today. Although higher education became much more rapidly common in the US compared to almost every single European country or any other country in the world for that matter. And Kansas obviously benefits from not being a (Deep) South state as well. Its relatively homogenous population (although with a very rapidly growing Hispanic population these days) also probably contibutes to its very high overall education levels I imagine.