3rd wave of YouGov/CBS/NYT Senate polls out tomorrow

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ak is the junkiest. Sullivan has peaked liked Ernst and Gardner. Up by no more than 3.

[eric82oslo]

Braley isn't really up by 1%, but rather by 0.4%, which seems more accurate.

[Lief 🗽]

Basically in line with the other polls we've been getting, other than Kansas (where YouGov's numbers have been very pro-Republican all cycle).

[KCDem]

Since YouGov uses the same group of respondents in every poll, it's worth keeping track of the margin changes to determine any possible "momentum":

MARGIN CHANGES:

AK: 48-42 Sullivan (R) no change
AL: 61-13 Sessions (R) Sessions +6 *13% chose other
AR: 45-41 Cotton (R) no change
CO: 48-45 Udall (D) no change
DE: 51-35 Coons (D) Coons +3
GA: 47-43 Perdue (R) Nunn +2
HI: 71-17 Schatz (D) Schatz +19
IA: 44-43 Braley (D) Ernst +1
ID: 64-27 Risch (R) Risch +3
IL: 51-39 Durbin (D) no change
KS: 40-40 Orman/Roberts (R) previously polled 47-35 Roberts/Taylor
KY: 47-41 McConnell (R) McConnell +1
LA: 36-32 Laundrieu (D) Laundrieu +7
MA: 54-31 Markey (D) Markey +2
ME: 57-33 Collins (R) Bellows +8
MI: 46-41 Peters (D) Peters +5
MN: 49-42 Franken (D) McFadden +1
MS: 46-35 Cochran (R) Childers +4
MT: 55-34 Daines (R) Daines +3
NE: 58-31 Sasse (R) Sasse +1
NH: 48-41 Shaheen (D) Shaheen +1
NJ: 51-37 Booker (D) Bell +1
NM: 53-35 Udall (D) no change
NY: 57-31 Cuomo (D) Cuomo +2
OH: 53-36 Kasich (R) Kasich +4
OK*: 65-24 Lankford (R) Lankford +8
OK: 67-25 Inhofe (R) Inhofe +10
OR: 52-39 Merkley (D) Merkley +1
RI: 64-22 Reed (D) Reed +22
SC: 44-27 Graham (R) Graham +4
SC*: 54-31 Scott (R) Scott +2
SD: 42-27-12 Rounds (R) Rounds +1
TN: 53-32 Alexander (R) Alexander +6
TX: 55-35 Cornyn (R) Alameel +1
VA: 51-39 Warner (D) no change
WV: 56-33 Capito (R) no change
WY: 75-17 Enzi (R) Enzi +13

[Skill and Chance]

Since YouGov uses the same group of respondents in every poll, it's worth keeping track of the margin changes to determine any possible "momentum":

MARGIN CHANGES:

AK: 48-42 Sullivan (R) no change
AL: 61-13 Sessions (R) Sessions +6 *13% chose other
AR: 45-41 Cotton (R) no change
CO: 48-45 Udall (D) no change
DE: 51-35 Coons (D) Coons +3
GA: 47-43 Perdue (R) Nunn +2
HI: 71-17 Schatz (D) Schatz +19
IA: 44-43 Braley (D) Ernst +1
ID: 64-27 Risch (R) Risch +3
IL: 51-39 Durbin (D) no change
KS: 40-40 Orman/Roberts (R) previously polled 47-35 Roberts/Taylor
KY: 47-41 McConnell (R) McConnell +1
LA: 36-32 Laundrieu (D) Laundrieu +7
MA: 54-31 Markey (D) Markey +2
ME: 57-33 Collins (R) Bellows +8
MI: 46-41 Peters (D) Peters +5
MN: 49-42 Franken (D) McFadden +1
MS: 46-35 Cochran (R) Childers +4
MT: 55-34 Daines (R) Daines +3
NE: 58-31 Sasse (R) Sasse +1
NH: 48-41 Shaheen (D) Shaheen +1
NJ: 51-37 Booker (D) Bell +1
NM: 53-35 Udall (D) no change
NY: 57-31 Cuomo (D) Cuomo +2
OH: 53-36 Kasich (R) Kasich +4
OK*: 65-24 Lankford (R) Lankford +8
OK: 67-25 Inhofe (R) Inhofe +10
OR: 52-39 Merkley (D) Merkley +1
RI: 64-22 Reed (D) Reed +22
SC: 44-27 Graham (R) Graham +4
SC*: 54-31 Scott (R) Scott +2
SD: 42-27-12 Rounds (R) Rounds +1
TN: 53-32 Alexander (R) Alexander +6
TX: 55-35 Cornyn (R) Alameel +1
VA: 51-39 Warner (D) no change
WV: 56-33 Capito (R) no change
WY: 75-17 Enzi (R) Enzi +13

Does this end up being only an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012 level win for Warner?  VA is becoming very, very inelastic it seems (which is actually good for Dems long term).  Obviously he is in no danger of losing, but that would probably quell the talk of a Warner presidential run and boost Kaine's chances for VP.

[Miles]

Basically in line with the other polls we've been getting, other than Kansas (where YouGov's numbers have been very pro-Republican all cycle).

Yeah, the biggest difference with YouGov is that most others show Hagan in better shape than Braley or Udall.

[IceSpear]

Not quite as bad as before, but still >YouGov. At least this time they won't completely nuke the polling aggregation sites.

[SPQR]

Sessions 61%? LOL

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sessions 61%? LOL

Basically, 39% would be willing to at least consider another candidate if Sessions wasn't unopposed.

[Maxwell]

This is a bunch of white nonsense.

[RI]

If anyone's interested, here are some maps based on issue questions YouGov did this time around:

Which party do you want to control Congress?

Do you support Affirmative Action?

Should Illegal Immigrants be allowed to stay or forced to leave?

Obamacare: Expand/Retain vs. Repeal Some/All

Gay Marriage?

Abortion: Never/Rarely Legal vs. Always/Before Viability

Gun Control: Complete Ban/More Strict vs. Less Strict/No Regulation

Is Global Warming Serious?

[IceSpear]

The global warming one looks like a Hillary vs. Palin electoral map.

[Zanas]

The abortion one is truly horrendous for anyone sane.

Also, how do the colours go on the gun control one ? I can never tell with your bizarre views on this particular subject...

[RI]

Also, how do the colours go on the gun control one ? I can never tell with your bizarre views on this particular subject...

Red is more gun control, blue is less.

[Skill and Chance]

Gun control results seem well left of reality and abortion seems well right of reality.

[Panda Express]

The abortion one is truly horrendous for anyone sane.

Well, that's because "never" and "rarely" are lumped together. Most people will say abortion should be rare

[RI]

The abortion one is truly horrendous for anyone sane.

Well, that's because "never" and "rarely" are lumped together. Most people will say abortion should be rare

YouGov defines "rarely" in the question as "only legal for rape, incest, and maternal health."

[Skill and Chance]

Also, why are ND/KS more into gay marriage than NC or IN?  That is bizarre.

[Beet]

The YouGov survey was a little social issue heavy, IMO. They could have asked about the minimum wage, or foreign policy.

[eric82oslo]

Also, why are ND/KS more into gay marriage than NC or IN?  That is bizarre.

North Dakota is religiously and ethnically similar to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lots of Scandinavians originally settled there with their moderate (even liberal) religious views. North Carolina on the other hand, is still remaining one of the most deeply religious of any US state, and its recent battleground status and influx of new citizens haven't in fact changed that basic fact (at least not yet, maybe it will have in 10 years from now). I don't know enough about Kansas and Indiana to comment on those I think.

[IceSpear]

Of course it's still >YouGov, so these maps should be taken with a barrel of salt.

[RI]

The YouGov survey was a little social issue heavy, IMO. They could have asked about the minimum wage, or foreign policy.

They did; I just didn't make the maps because the results didn't seem as interesting.

Do you support airstrikes against ISIS?

Do you favor raising the minimum wage to $10.10?

[pikachu]

Why's Utah pro-illegal immigrant?

[RI]

Why's Utah pro-illegal immigrant?

For some reason Mormons are like that. There are several other polls with similar results out of Utah.