How do you solve a problem like Syria?
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  How do you solve a problem like Syria?
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Author Topic: How do you solve a problem like Syria?  (Read 1346 times)
Indy Texas
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« on: October 04, 2014, 08:19:52 PM »

Through a complex and unusual set of circumstances, you find yourself the head of the Syrian government and have managed to secure military control over the entire country. The civil war is over. As head of a transitional governing council, you are the de facto leader of Syria and have absolute authority over any public decisions. Under terms agreed to by all parties at the end of the conflict, no elections can be held for at least five years. You cannot resign, as that would create a succession crisis and potentially cause the civil war to resume. What do you do to maintain order and best ensure long term stability for the country?

Caveats:
(1) ISIS still exists, but only exercises control over areas of Iraq. However, non-militarized political groups affiliated with ISIS do exist in Syria. 
(2) The anti-Assad factions' demands are largely moot for obvious reasons, but they are not loyal to you either and will not necessarily be amenable to your actions.
(3) Bashar and Asma Assad have fled the country and are living in exile in Paris. The other Assad family members are in exile abroad as well and none have any intention of ever returning to Syria. However, many of their allies are still in the country and seek to get or maintain political influence.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2014, 10:12:49 PM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.
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Deus Naturae
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2014, 10:14:17 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2014, 10:17:52 PM by Deus Naturae »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.
That certainly won't improve your prospects of not being invaded.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2014, 10:34:45 PM »

That seems like an impossible task.  I think you would want to try for a mix of going around hat-in-hand to the rest of the world, legal and financial reforms, and creating a Swiss bank account for yourself.

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2014, 12:18:19 AM »

Nationalize all private and foreign assets and gradually devolve them to worker control wherever possible, guarantee equal legal rights for all religious/ethnic groups, establish a massive development project for poorer/more rural areas of the country, end discriminatory policies against women and homosexuals, form wide-scale propaganda campaign promoting equality and acceptance. It would either be a smashing success or go down in flames.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2014, 12:50:59 AM »

Nationalize all private and foreign assets and gradually devolve them to worker control wherever possible, guarantee equal legal rights for all religious/ethnic groups, establish a massive development project for poorer/more rural areas of the country, end discriminatory policies against women and homosexuals, form wide-scale propaganda campaign promoting equality and acceptance. It would either be a smashing success or go down in flames.

The Arab/Islamic world had its brief flirtation with Marxism-Leninism in the form of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2014, 01:07:01 AM »

Nationalize all private and foreign assets and gradually devolve them to worker control wherever possible, guarantee equal legal rights for all religious/ethnic groups, establish a massive development project for poorer/more rural areas of the country, end discriminatory policies against women and homosexuals, form wide-scale propaganda campaign promoting equality and acceptance. It would either be a smashing success or go down in flames.

The Arab/Islamic world had its brief flirtation with Marxism-Leninism in the form of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen

Syria, in fairness, has actual natural resources besides sand.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2014, 05:07:05 AM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

This is your brain on libertarianism.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2014, 06:12:21 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 01:47:13 PM by BaconBacon96 »

Entice the former rebels to enter into a power sharing government. Give them key positions and ensure there is an even divide of the government posts between Shias, Sunnis, Kurds etc.

Combine the remaining armed groups to form a new army. Ask for foreign assistance, to combat and defeat the remaining ISIS threat in cooperation with the Iraqi government.

Negotiate with the international community programs pertaining to securing aid and assisting the many millions of refugees return, if they choose to do so.

Begin a massive reconstruction effort for the country, with the help of international experts to oversee the rebuilding of the national infrastructure. Establish wide reaching programs to re establish social services, including schools and hospitals.
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TNF
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2014, 11:31:20 AM »

Nationalize all private and foreign assets and gradually devolve them to worker control wherever possible, guarantee equal legal rights for all religious/ethnic groups, establish a massive development project for poorer/more rural areas of the country, end discriminatory policies against women and homosexuals, form wide-scale propaganda campaign promoting equality and acceptance. It would either be a smashing success or go down in flames.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2014, 01:30:25 PM »

I'd pillage the nation of its natural resources, play bad boy to the west, and then drive my BMWs into the back of a French military plane and flee to a luxurious western European exile. Duh.

Or I'd just sell the country back to France and let them figure it out.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2014, 01:45:13 PM »

I am choosing to read Snowstalker's and CELTICEMPIRE's posts here as self-aware self-parody of the "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" mindsets all-too-inherent to many ideologues, rather than serious suggestions.

Doing so is a good strategy for preserving one's basic faith in humanity.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2014, 02:00:00 PM »

Assuming I only care about stability, and not getting sent to the Hague for crimes against humanity...

Seize power and become an old school strongman. Build a coalition of Christians, non-Sunni Muslims including Alawites and Kurds. Supplement the coalition with moderate Muslims and army officers interested in power and patronage. Cozy up with whichever of the USA, Russia and China wants to help keep me in power. Accept their money and weapons. Massively persecute Islamists, aggressively attack ISIS and generally be a complete dick to whoever opposes my regime.

I figure if I do the above and throw a ton of oil money at the average Sunni Muslim, I ought to get 20-50 years of relative stability until the patronage network grows so large that the state collapses...

Some personal things on my to do list

1) Steal a significant sum of money from the treasury and keep it in foreign bank accounts
2) Keep a plane running in the presidential palace including everything I need for a comfortable exile
3) Make friends with some random small country so I'll have somewhere to go when my regime collapses
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TNF
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2014, 02:28:05 PM »

I am choosing to read Snowstalker's and CELTICEMPIRE's posts here as self-aware self-parody of the "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" mindsets all-too-inherent to many ideologues, rather than serious suggestions.

Doing so is a good strategy for preserving one's basic faith in humanity.

>implying that you aren't an ideologue

Can we please stop pretending its possible for someone to approach issues from a 'non-ideological' standpoint, or pretending that being 'non-ideological' is possible?
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bedstuy
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2014, 02:29:48 PM »

I am choosing to read Snowstalker's and CELTICEMPIRE's posts here as self-aware self-parody of the "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" mindsets all-too-inherent to many ideologues, rather than serious suggestions.

Doing so is a good strategy for preserving one's basic faith in humanity.

>implying that you aren't an ideologue

Can we please stop pretending its possible for someone to approach issues from a 'non-ideological' standpoint, or pretending that being 'non-ideological' is possible?

Yeah, to be fair, the guy who recommended a gold standard probably doesn't even know what a gold standard is.  If you're a marxist, you ought to think that is the best system for any country in some sense.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2014, 04:03:20 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 11:08:37 PM by traininthedistance »

I am choosing to read Snowstalker's and CELTICEMPIRE's posts here as self-aware self-parody of the "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" mindsets all-too-inherent to many ideologues, rather than serious suggestions.

Doing so is a good strategy for preserving one's basic faith in humanity.

>implying that you aren't an ideologue

Can we please stop pretending its possible for someone to approach issues from a 'non-ideological' standpoint, or pretending that being 'non-ideological' is possible?

Fine, then, it is part and parcel of my ideology to acknowledge the contingency and complexity of actual life, and be wary of "pat" solutions that don't at least give lip service to the details of the solution at hand*.  If that sort of care and nuance is inherently ideological, then okay, I will wear that label with pride.  

But, really, it's not actually necessarily ideological in the specific way that you're implying, and if it is than you're really just insulting yourself.  I choose to believe that, if you tried, you could come up with a solution for Syria [or insert other country/region/issue here] that both acknowledged (and demonstrated an understanding of) the unique sorts of challenges it faces, and tried to incorporate a Marxist [or insert preferred approach here] approach into a contextual, on-topic answer.  

The problem is that those folks didn't even try.  They just parroted talking points that could be cut and pasted into any situation, anywhere.  Do you seriously not see the problem with that?

*I might extend that further, actually, to say that I don't believe perfect consistency to be even possible, and I furthermore think that the effort to twist reality to create the appearance of perfect consistency is something that has caused great harm over the years.  That is an ideological thing to say, and I acknowledge as such, and you would be right to label it as such.  It is also superfluous to my task of proving that Snowstalker and CELTIC are being tiresome knuckleheads with their "solutions" here.  One does not need to commit to capital-P Pragmatism to point out when the proverbial Magic 8-Ball is broken.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2014, 06:16:07 PM »

Nationalize all private and foreign assets and gradually devolve them to worker control wherever possible, guarantee equal legal rights for all religious/ethnic groups, establish a massive development project for poorer/more rural areas of the country, end discriminatory policies against women and homosexuals, form wide-scale propaganda campaign promoting equality and acceptance. It would either be a smashing success or go down in flames.

The Arab/Islamic world had its brief flirtation with Marxism-Leninism in the form of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen

Syria, in fairness, has actual natural resources besides sand.

I would imagine you'd still wind up needlessly provoking the Islamists, both in and out of the country. The only successful implementations of communism in countries with Muslim majorities were the Central Asian Soviet republics and Albania under Enver Hoxha - and both cases involved brutal suppression of any religious expression.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2014, 09:36:27 PM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.

Before the US invades me it will probably take at least a month of media demonization of my regime so the people are on board.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2014, 09:48:15 PM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.

Before the US invades me it will probably take at least a month of media demonization of my regime so the people are on board.

Do you know what a gold standard is in regards to currency? 
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Maistre
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2014, 08:40:31 AM »

Bomb it.

Oh wait, I'm the leader of Syria?

Err....bomb it?
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2014, 10:05:37 AM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.

Before the US invades me it will probably take at least a month of media demonization of my regime so the people are on board.

Do you know what a gold standard is in regards to currency? 

Yes it means that money is actually backed up by something.
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Colbert
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2014, 10:58:56 AM »

-bringing weapons to baath party


-oh, by the way, in Irak too. To the baath party.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2014, 11:09:28 AM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.

Before the US invades me it will probably take at least a month of media demonization of my regime so the people are on board.

Do you know what a gold standard is in regards to currency? 

Yes it means that money is actually backed up by something.

I don't think you do.  Explain why I would hold Syrian currency is there's a fixed exchange into gold.  Wouldn't this policy just result in Syria having no gold reserves, with no attendant benefits?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2014, 12:37:32 PM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.

Before the US invades me it will probably take at least a month of media demonization of my regime so the people are on board.

Do you know what a gold standard is in regards to currency? 

Yes it means that money is actually backed up by something.

I don't think you do.  Explain why I would hold Syrian currency is there's a fixed exchange into gold.  Wouldn't this policy just result in Syria having no gold reserves, with no attendant benefits?

So...tell me if this is what you're envisioning: Syrian government comes out with a ratio for gold to Syrian dinar.  Syrians instantly run to the banks and trade in their dinars for gold, leading to the government lowering the gold to dinar rate, leading to rampant inflation, leading to more people turning in dinars for gold, leading to the rate lowering again, leading to more inflation, producing a situation where people are racing to get rid of their dinars before the government runs out of gold and their money is valueless.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2014, 01:01:49 PM »

Privatize as much as I can get away with and establish a Gold Standard.

lol

Are you serious?  A country like Syria could have a gold standard for about 2 minutes max.

Before the US invades me it will probably take at least a month of media demonization of my regime so the people are on board.

Do you know what a gold standard is in regards to currency? 

Yes it means that money is actually backed up by something.

I don't think you do.  Explain why I would hold Syrian currency is there's a fixed exchange into gold.  Wouldn't this policy just result in Syria having no gold reserves, with no attendant benefits?

So...tell me if this is what you're envisioning: Syrian government comes out with a ratio for gold to Syrian dinar.  Syrians instantly run to the banks and trade in their dinars for gold, leading to the government lowering the gold to dinar rate, leading to rampant inflation, leading to more people turning in dinars for gold, leading to the rate lowering again, leading to more inflation, producing a situation where people are racing to get rid of their dinars before the government runs out of gold and their money is valueless.

That's basically the idea.  My hunch is also that there would be huge arbitrage opportunities because there is no global gold standard system.  I don't think it's at all possible for any nation to maintain a gold standard by themselves, much less a war-torn, chaotic Middle Eastern country.  You wouldn't be able to maintain a fixed-exchange rate to Gold at any particular rate and it's just a recipe for a run on the bank so to speak.
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