David Perdue: "Yeah, I spent most of my career" outsourcing

[The Other Castro]

Seems like Perdue might become the Braley of Georgia

Called it.

(Shamelessly self-quoting)

[Adam Griffin]

Here's the Nunn campaign's first ad about the outsourcing debacle.


Personally (maybe because I come from a mill town), but I found this older ad to be even more effective. Reminiscent of the Bain Capital 2012 ads.

[Lief 🗽]

The Hill: Dems have new hope in Georgia as both sides admit the race has tightened

Wonderful news!

[Brittain33]

This is the craziest Senate election year since 2002 or earlier. Crazy in terms of volatility and unexpected twists, not bizarre candidates.

[Adam Griffin]

And the deluge of ads begins.

[eric82oslo]

And the deluge of ads begins.

Amazing ad. Perhaps the single best one I've seen all year long. This is even better than Burke's very effective economic ads in Wisconsin. The only ads I've seen that can compare itself in quality and effectiveness to this are the anti-Tillis education ads that have been literally inundating North Carolina. If this doesn't move numbers, then nothing will. I must be honest and say that I didn't have much faith in Nunn a few months ago, she seemed incredibly lame and boring - especially compared to fierceful, on-her-toes Grimes. All that has changed tremendously during the past few weeks though. And her opponent really is a gift that just keeps on giving.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/10/david_perdues_money_grab.html

Question for BK and AG: Do you guys think the steady stream of blunders and bad press has given Nunn a legitimate chance of winning (particularly if it keeps up through election day) or is this pretty much guaranteed to go to a run-off no matter what?

[JRP1994]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/10/david_perdues_money_grab.html

Question for BK and AG: Do you guys think the steady stream of blunders and bad press has given Nunn a legitimate chance of winning (particularly if it keeps up through election day) or is this pretty much guaranteed to go to a run-off no matter what?

I think she has a legitimate chance of winning, but that it's a narrow path and that time is running out. Had Perdue made this gaffe in July or August, Nunn would have had much more time to capitalize. She can't afford to play it conservatively at this point - she needs to fight like hell over the last couple weeks.

[Adam Griffin]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/10/david_perdues_money_grab.html

Question for BK and AG: Do you guys think the steady stream of blunders and bad press has given Nunn a legitimate chance of winning (particularly if it keeps up through election day) or is this pretty much guaranteed to go to a run-off no matter what?

BK's more optimistic about Nunn than I; perhaps I'm more optimistic about Carter than he is. I'm sure both of us agree that she has a strong chance of winning a plurality. If she does, then the run-off will be much more of a nail-biter than the 2008 one (simply because you won't have as much variance in the electorate/mid-term voters are more reliable). I actually think her odds of winning a run-off are higher at this point than her odds of breaking 50%+1.

I think she has a legitimate chance of winning, but that it's a narrow path and that time is running out. Had Perdue made this gaffe in July or August, Nunn would have had much more time to capitalize. She can't afford to play it conservatively at this point - she needs to fight like hell over the last couple weeks.

I don't know: a part of me thinks this is the perfect time for him to make the gaffe. It'd have already been papered over had it happened a couple of months ago, and people would have forgotten to a degree. Now if it had came out in the spring, that might be a different story. You either need a story like this to break very early on so you can completely control a narrative (a la Obama with Romney), or it needs to be an October surprise that can influence voters before they have too much time to reconsider.

[Badger]

Adam, one what basis do you say Nunn has a better chance of winning the runoff than outright, given the historical drop in runoff turnout among young and minority voters.

[IceSpear]

If Deal's blatant corruption doesn't sway voters, I don't really see why this comment from Perdue would. Georgia is incredibly polarized and most of the voters are just not persuadable no matter what it seems.

On the plus side, this hyperpolarization will work in the Democrats' favor once the Fake Americans take over.

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, one what basis do you say Nunn has a better chance of winning the runoff than outright, given the historical drop in runoff turnout among young and minority voters.

We only have one recent result to compare, and that was in a landmark-turnout election in a presidential year in which an unstable black vote jumped by a larger amount (when compared to the previous presidential) by more than at any other point in Georgia's history. It was an untested and unstable showing then, but the 2010 and 2012 elections have both shown that this bloc of voters is now more established. I'm very skeptical that the drop-off would look anything like what it did in 2008.

Obviously a run-off election favors the Republican when compared to the general, but I'm referring to an example where Nunn wins a plurality and may have some wiggle room in the run-off, rather than one where she simply holds Perdue below 50 but isn't the plurality winner. Really, though, I'm just saying that it's impossible for Nunn to hit 50% in the general. As such, she has a better chance (if negligible) to win a run-off than sealing a majority of the vote in November given the state's dynamics, especially if she can eek out a 2-point plurality on Election Night.

I think the variance between this general and a potential run-off would look more like 1992 (where both candidates actually increased their percentage of the vote) than 2008 (where there was a 16-point swing between the general and run-off). In 1992, Fowler led by 1.6 points and ultimately lost by 1.3 points in the runoff. There is much, much more awareness of the implications of this race and a run-off among black voters in Georgia this cycle, and white voters are (if we believe the polling) leaning 3-5 points more Democratic than they were for Martin in 2008. The public and the media wasn't expecting such certainty of a run-off in the Martin-Chambliss race. A lot more people this time are anticipating that they'll have to vote three times for these elections (general, runoff for Gov, runoff for Sen).

[Chance92]

The Republicans are batting a thousand this year, aren't they? A few more duds and gaffes and we might just have an interesting year on our hands.

[Adam Griffin]

More smug commentary from Perdue, reminiscent of the "we've got a high school graduate in this race" line of thought:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you watch the video, you'll laugh at how he pulled a Bush and tried to open a locked door (Perdue, too, must' have thought he was back in Red China!) to get away from another question.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There really is potential here for Democrats. We only need to put money, energy, and creativity in this campaign.

[eric82oslo]

I think the variance between this general and a potential run-off would look more like 1992 (where both candidates actually increased their percentage of the vote) than 2008 (where there was a 16-point swing between the general and run-off).

I'm sure there was only a 12 point swing from +3% to +15%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008#Results_2

[Adam Griffin]

I think the variance between this general and a potential run-off would look more like 1992 (where both candidates actually increased their percentage of the vote) than 2008 (where there was a 16-point swing between the general and run-off).

I'm sure there was only a 12 point swing from +3% to +15%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2008#Results_2

Was trying to recall from memory; didn't look for the exact number.