São Tomé and Príncipe - General Election - October 12, 2014

[Mogrovejo]

PCD is a centre-right party created in 1991 by MLSTP dissidents, independents and young professionals to contest the first democratic election. It then ruled Sao Tome 1991-1994. In 2002 and 2006 it was part of an alliance with MDFM-PL, but withdrew in 2008 and won 7 seats on its own last time. The party is led by 79 year old (sic!) Leonel Mário d'Alva, who was Prime Minister in the transitional 1974-75 government prior to independence and Foreign Minister 1975-78.

The country's political elite is small and interwoven. Miguel Trovoada was Foreign Minister and Fradique de Menezes Prime Minister during the Socialist era.

Just a side note: Leonel Mário d'Alva is the PCD chairman but that's a ceremonial position. Their candidate to PM is António Dias, the current Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries - actually a very popular guy, at least among farmers and fishermen. Mostly due to a sizeable cooperation program with Tawian for those areas (and, to be fair, his ability to pass through the money with minimal corruption for STP standards, which encouraged Taiwan to send more money). He's an outsider to STP political aristocracy (as you wrote it's a very closed and interwoven group, basically a handful of families), grew up in a roça, so it'll be interesting to see what he does. Then again, I wouldn't call him the PCD leader either, even if that's what he technically is - I doubt he'll have much control over their parliamentary group post-elections. The PCD oligarchy put him up front due to his popularity that, I suspect, contrasts with that of the party.

Some additional nitpicking: the STP politics is remarkably non-ideological (somehow expected for such a tiny country with an underdeveloped economy). I understand the left-right divide, as basically it's the MLSTP vs parties founded by cliques/personalities that departed from the MLSTP/PSD official line, but in the end they're all catch-all parties and the average santomense doesn't think of them from an ideological standpoint. Relationships of family, friendship and patronage are far more important factors (and some good old fashioned caciquism/vote buying); what parties try to sell above everything is their ability to capture foreign funds (aid or investment) and that they'll be less corrupt than the other guys making use of it.

Also, Gabriel Costa isn't from MLSTP/PSD, he has his own party (UDD). He was appointed directly by PdC as someone who could get the support of all parties supporting the troika government.

Where did you get the sea level and coastal erosion info? I've never heard of relocated villages, or that stuff being an issue, and I doubt the next government will spend much time on it. Anyway, São Tomé coastal villages wouldn't be that difficult to relocate. And basically the entire population will leave near the coast, nowadays the interior is mostly jungle and abandoned roças (the old cocoa farms from colonial times, some of them still operate, either as small biological cocoa production units or as tourist spots). But it's a big steep mountain covered by tropical jungle.

There was actually a poll published by a newspaper: MLSTP - 22 mandates; ADI - 14; PCD -14; MDFM - 5. There's no way of telling if they actually polled anyone, of course. I doubt it. But it'll be something along those lines: either the not-MLSTP/PSD vote is concentrated on Trovoada and in that case the ADI might even get an absolute majority or, as in the poll scenario, it gets dispersed and the MLSTP will probably win a plurality.

[Mogrovejo]

Where did you get the sea level and coastal erosion info? I've never heard of relocated villages, or that stuff being an issue, and I doubt the next government will spend much time on it. Anyway, São Tomé coastal villages wouldn't be that difficult to relocate. And basically the entire population will leave (live) near the coast, nowadays the interior is mostly jungle and abandoned roças (the old cocoa farms from colonial times, some of them still operate, either as small biological cocoa production units or as tourist spots). But it's a big steep mountain covered by tropical jungle.

UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)

http://www.uneca.org/media-centre/stories/addressing-climate-change-comoros-and-sao-tome-and-principe#.VDZMwxbzPlc

But there are several links to stuff about STP being vulnerable to climate change.

Well I don't doubt STP is vulnerable to climate change (not that they can do anything about climate change per se), but as brick houses are such a rarity in STP and wood is so cheap, it won't be much of a problem even if there's some drastic progression in coastal erosion.

As I told you, I think those "relocated villages" is just some bureaucrat or environmentalist hyping up some wooden buildings being hit by a vivid sea tempest and people building new ones somewhere else. I've never heard of it and can't find references in portuguese/forro; it just wasn't as dramatic as it sounds.

There was actually a poll published by a newspaper: MLSTP - 22 mandates; ADI - 14; PCD -14; MDFM - 5. There's no way of telling if they actually polled anyone, of course. I doubt it. But it'll be something along those lines: either the non-MLSTP/PSD vote is concentrated on Trovoada and in that case the ADI might even get an absolute majority or, as in the poll scenario, it gets dispersed and the MLSTP will probably win a plurality.

This only makes sense if they use FPTP, but Wikipedia says they use PR (and the National Assembly article seems to be written by someone knowledgable). [/quote]


Ah I get it now. No, it's PR with 7 electoral districts. What I meant there, and sorry for the misunderstanding, is that the MLSTP voting base is generally seen as solid but inelastic with the rest of the voters being persuadable by any of the other parties. The MLSTP tends to elect 20ish NA members; the other parties divide the remaining ones. If ADI runs the table with that non-MLSTP segment of the voting population, then they'll top MLSTP in total votes. Basically the MLSTP has a high floor and low ceiling; the ADI and the PCD lower floors and higher ceilings. Of course, this is the CW; things can always change.

Thx for all the info - I have made some changes to the OP. Costa being MLSTP is a Wiki info from the short article on him. I can see here that he is running for UDD (União para a Democracia e Desenvolvimento, so Union for Democracy and Development) - as you said - and that they only have a single seat in the National Assembly. Since they didn't get any seats in 2010 it must be Costa defecting from someone else, so probably the Wiki info of him being MLSTP is just dated and he did ran for MLSTP in 2010.

1. Do you know when he left MLSTP? It must have been after the last election.

2. Do you have any info on why MDFM and PCD ditched Trovada?

Gabriel Costa was never a MLSTP member (at least during the multiparty era), that info is incorrect. He was an ADI member and left with some other guys to found UDD in 2005 over disagreements with the Trovoadas, mostly Patrice. He was the Justice Minister in the 90s, then Ambassador to Portugal and before being nominated PM he was the president of the Bar association.

I don't think the UDD has any seats in the NA, that article doesn't state that.

1. Why do you say he must have left MLSTP after the last election? He's been with the UDD since 2005.

2. Trovoada had a minority government, not a formal coalition with the MDFM and the PCD. The MLSTP presented a motion of no confidence - sustained on arguments about corruption, violation of budgetary law, the process of recognizing Kosovo (suggesting it was done in exchange for bribes) and general mismanagement of the government apparatus- and the government was voted out. Amidst a constitutional controversy on whether he should call snap elections or not, Pinto da Costa just invited the 3 opposition parties to form a coalition government and nominated Gabriel Costa as a well-respected person they could all get behind. Of course, the motion of no confidence passed because the opposition parties already had that deal in place with Pinto da Costa. Trovoada threw an hissy fit and went into a golden exile - he only returned to São Tomé a few days ago, he's been living in Portugal and travelling around.

[Mogrovejo]

Okay, I just assumed Costa had to be an MP to become Prime Minister.

Ah, hence the confusion. Pretty much like in Portugal (the same people wrote both constitutions) no MP requirement - it's whoever the PR invites informed by

It was the sentence "Adelino Lucas, igualmente secretário de Estado Adjunto do Primeiro-ministro para a Comunicação Social, líder do secretariado do partido com apenas um deputado na Assembleia Nacional"

Google translate "translated" it as "with one member (deputee) in the National Assembly. It sounded legit. Sorry!

The translation is absolutely fine, but that Adelino Lucas person is a MDFM member (
"Adelino Lucas, secretário-geral do partido liberal liderado pelo ex-Chefe de Estado Fradique de Menezes" means "Adelino Lucas, general secretary of the Liberal Party lead by the ex-PoR Fradique de Menezes")- and MDFM indeed has a singe seat in the NA. The part specifically about the UDD comes in the last 3 paragraphs (the article is about MDFM, ADI and UDD registering their candidates lists on the courts).

Any background info on Jose Cassandra on Príncipe?

Yeah, apparently this year they'll have two electoral districts in Príncipe with D'Hondt method (as it's always been the case in the rest of the country). For some odd reason, Príncipe had a winner takes all electoral law until now.

Cassandra leads the localist party in Principe, the UMPP - elections are usually contested between the UMPP and the MLSTP since the former was created. This year the ADI is running their own candidate for the regional government. Apparently there's another local party running, the MAP (Movement Love Príncipe).

Some articles in the press suggest the race will be closer:
http://www.telanon.info/politica/2014/08/29/17252/eleicao-regional-luta-renhida-pelo-poder-na-ilha-do-principe/
http://jornaldigital.com/noticias.php?noticia=43222

Príncipe is a micro-island, there are like 2500 votes there. One could argue that president of the regional government shouldn't even be a full-time job; but they have five of those (the president, the vp and 3 regional secretaries).  On Cassandra specifically I have no info even though I've met him once. He's a friendly guy and is/was a lawyer who graduated in Portugal.

[Mogrovejo]

To clarify: for the national election, to elect national assembly members, Príncipe is a single electoral district, as it always was. As I said it's 7 districts, they're one of them.

For the regional election (the one Cassandra is running on), to elect the regional assembly members, there will be two districts - electing the 7 members of the regional assembly that will then nominate the regional government (the 5 members executive body).  I only mentioned this in the context of Cassandra.

As per this article, the 2010 regional elections result in Príncipe was IMMP - 2042 votes, MLSTP - 1039 votes; so I was low-balling the size of their electorate but not by much, it's 3000ish voters.