Botswana general election - October 24, 2014

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Botswana elects the 57 directly elected members of their 63 seat National Assembly on October 24 using FPTP. The new parliament then elect a President. Botswana is a well established democracy, but it is a very consevative and traditional society and tribal loyalty among the majority Tswana population + diamond wealth spend on improving living conditions has meant, that one party has been able to win all elections since (before) independence in 1966 (the election was in 1965). Making it a de facto one party state. The leadership of the country’s ruling BDP party has shown more authoritarian tendencies in the last 5 years leading to a party split in 2010. The defectors was at first highly succesful in uniting the opposition and the labour movement, but BDP has since lured a lot of the most prominent defectors back and will likely win the election - the question is how comfortably.

On the situation: http://www.osisa.org/hrdb/blog/scary-strength-botswanas-ruling-party (a bit old, but good)

About the election: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_general_election,_2014


Parties in parliament:

Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is a Conservative party, which has ruled Botswana from independence in 1966 onwards, the party is however deeply split in factions.
The minority Barata-Phathi faction is more liberal - half of its members left in 2010 to form a new party, but many of the defectors have since come back. The dominant conservative and traditionalist faction (The A Team) is led by cabinet ministers Jacob Nkate and Mompati Merafhe. It was formerly led by President Ian Khama, but he has officially disassociated himself from 'The A Team'. BDP got 45 seats in 2009.

Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) is a new party formed in 2010 by former Barata-Phathi members, who split from BDP and is led by Gomolemo Motswaledi. They want to fight what they consider "authoritarian tendencies" and remove the "undemocratic" BDP government of Botswana in order to restore "a united, non-racial, non-sexist and democratic Botswana." Many of its senior members have returned to BDP since 2012 and it is uncertain how strong the movement is now.

Botswana National Front (BNF) is Social Democratic and an old opposition party dating back to 1965. It used to incorporate many conservative tribal leaders, but is a more homogenous left wing party these days. It has 6 seats in the Assembly.

Botswana Congress Party (BCP) is another Social Democratic party, which split from BNF over a leadership dispute in 1998. In 2010 it merged with the small leftist Botswana Alliance Movement, which had a single seat. The new BCP now has 5 seats in the Assembly.

There is also one independent MP. The four indirectly elected MP’s (chosen by the parliament) and the President and Attorney General - who are also MP’s - are (officially) not members of any party, but are all BDP-connected.


Others:

Two other small parties are running, none of them got any seats last time.

Botswana People’s Party (BPP) is a progressive ANC inspired party founded in 1960 (the oldest party in the country), it soon split into factions - one of them was BNF, which replaced it as the anti-BDP in the 70s. BPP has been dying a very slow death for decades, but refuse to throw in the towel and continues to run - this time their candidates will be running for the UCD alliance. They got 1,4% in 2009.

MELS Movement of Botswana (MELS-MB) is a Marxist-Leninist Communist party led by lawyer Themba Joina. MELS stands for Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin! (so the Snowstalker option...). They got less than 0,1% last time. Joina is running in the BCP list this time.


Alliance:

This time BMD, BNF and BPP are running on a common list - Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), but BCP has refused to join it, so the opposition’s tradition for vote splitting continues.

[Nhoj]

Yes MELS is one of the best named parties.

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Yes MELS is one of the best named parties.

The MELS acronym is a widely known thing throughout the former Eastern Bloc, and there are actually people who have Mels as a first name here and there.

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Presidential candidates:

Seretse Khama Ian Khama (BDP) is 61, a Sandhurst educated army officer and former Commander in Chief of the Botswana Defence Force, he was Vice President 1998-2008 and has been President since 2008. Born to rule as the first born son of Botswana's founding father Sir Seretse Khama, who was President 1966-80 (and his English wife) and also inherited the title as King of the Bamangwato tribe. Is a qualified pilot and likes to ride quad bikes and do other Putin style action things. Like Putin, Khama does not like to be criticized and has taken a tough approach against the country's independent media and given increased powers to the security police.



Dumelang Saleshando (BCP), career politician, who has been the MP for Gaborone Central in the capital since 2004. BA in economics and political science and son of one of the party's founders, Gilson Saleshando. Accused of selling out to BDP by UDC.



Duma Boko (UDC), human rights lawyer, LL.M. from Harvard and former lecturer in constitutional law at University of Botswana. BNF President since 2010.



http://allafrica.com/stories/201409240547.html

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Interview with an exiled journalist, who was one of the countrys most respected before his flight, about the situation and Ian Khama's unique position in the country. Says that a loss of power - and thereby immunity - for Khama could lead to civil war, since the army is split.

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-09-30-botswana-in-crisis-perspective-from-a-journalist-in-exile/#.VDK2lxbzPlcSrpska

Polls showing a decline in trust in the government and rising trust in the opposition.

http://www.sundaystandard.info/article.php?NewsID=21121&GroupID=1&utm_content=buffer57039&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Last weekend President Ian Khama was shouted out by protestors during an election rally at a Bushman eviction camp over government attempts to starve the Bushmen off their land in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve.

The Bushmen demanded that their right to hunt to feed their families be recognized. Ian Khama sits on the board of the big US NGO Conservation International, and has attempted to force the Bushmen out of the reserve in the name of conservation, while simultaneously allowing fracking exploration and diamond mining to go ahead on their land. Not a single conservation organization stood up for the Bushmen's human rights when they were illegally evicted in the name of 'conservation' and they have all turned a blind eye to the diamond mining and fracking exploration. Sigh..

Khama of course refused to address the government's refusal to allow the Bushmen to hunt inside the reserve or the requirement for Bushmen to apply for super restrictive permits to even enter the reserve or the recent opening of a diamond mine on Bushman land..

The BDP government ignored a historic High Court ruling from 2006 which upheld the Bushmen's right to live and hunt inside the Central Kalahari Reserve, when it issued a total ban on hunting earlier this year (not for rich white trophy hunters of course..).

The Bushmen call the eviction camps "places of death". When forced to live a sedentary lifestyle, the old semi-nomadic hunter-gatherers succumb to alcoholism or AIDS, often caused by sexual abuse from police or neighbouring Tswanas.

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According to Montreal-based political scientist and specialist in Botswana politics Professor Amy Poteete the 2014 general elections on Friday are expected to be more competitive and volatile than any previous election Botswana has seen.

In her blog she says the formation of the BMD in 2010 and the fall-out in BDP over disputed primary elections (the 2013 BDP primaries were the most acrimonious in its history) will trigger high magnitude vote swings in some constituencies that were uncompetitive in 2009.
Never before have such a high number of candidates chosen to leave BDP to contest as independents or join the opposition. There are about 230 independent candidates - most of them disgruntled former BDP members, who alleged irregularities after losing in the primaries. This will have a significant impact on the BDP performance.

The 2014 Afrobarometer survey also indicates that this will be a highly competitive election. Afrobarometer reports that an increasing number of Batswana see the opposition as a viable alternative. Respondents in the survey also say that corruption is a big concern.


Corruption

Botswana media reports are filed with stories of corruption perpetrated by high-ranking public servants and this has shocked voters in a country that used to have a lower corruption level than fx Southern Europe. There have been extensive reports that the Director of Intelligence and Security Isaac Kgosi is corrupt. Despite the damning evidence against Kgosi, President Ian Khama has refused to fire him. Khama is not exactly seen as strong on fighting corruption (to put it mildly..), and this could also impact BDPs performance. Furthermore Khama has reportedly used army personnel and other government employees to build himself a luxurious holiday home in Mosu.

Despite all this Khama denies there is any corruption in Botswana. The President recently told a BDP rally that there is “zero corruption in Botswana”. He alleged that the corruption cases reported in the media were “the fertile imagination” of the opposition and their allies in the private media.


Broken promises

This will also be the first election after the global recession, so the ruling party's delivery will be put to test. Because of recession, the government has not been able to deliver on a number of promised projects. For instance it abandoned the gigantic Palapye Glass Project and the Francistown Stadium that was supposed to be ready for the 2010 soccer World Cup hosted by South Africa is still behind schedule.


BDP campaign

Despite all the stakes against it the BDP has been fighting with enormous resources at its disposal. The stakes are high and the build-up to the general elections has been unprecedented with millions of Pula splashed on the campaign by the three political parties.

A new form of nationwide political campaign strategy has taken the political landscape of Botswana by storm. BDP has 57 branded vehicles for all the 57 constituencies. The party treasurer, motor magnate Satar Dada has provided these campaign vehicles and the intention has been to penetrate the whole thinly populated country and sustain visibility to reaffirm that BDP is the only party that can move Botswana forward. In august they changed their election tagline from 'The party you can still trust' to 'Moving Botswana forward' to illustrate their new dynamic image.

There is no political party funding law in Botswana, and the sources of the money used by the parties in their election campaigns are shrouded in secrecy.

In June BDP also confirmed that it had hired a consulting company to help it win the general elections. The party does not want to disclose the name of the company, but it is believed to be Israeli owned Timor Consulting. Timor Consulting has a track record of managing election campaigns in Israel, South America and Europe.

Although BDP dismisses claims of rigging as baseless, there are widespread fears among NGOs, journalists, the opposition and union leaders that the BDP will do anything to win the polls.


UDC campaign

On the other side UDC has also upped its election campaign. As mentioned earlier in thread UDC is a coalition of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) formed to bring together all 'progressive forces' under one banner. Seeking to create a platform for all those who want to get rid of the current government. It is contesting 52 out of the 57 constituencies and seeks to make opposition vote-splitting a thing of the past.

Under the leadership of the flamboyant Harvard-trained human rights lawyer Duma Boko UDC is going for a regime change. The theme of its manifesto is 'Embrace Change - Real Change.'
In the manifesto it says regime change is about real change in the structure of the economy. UDC will amend the Constitution and strengthen Botswana's democracy. They argue that all Batswana should benefit from the resources of their country, and promises to intensify efforts to bring about beneficiation in the mining sector.
UDC claims the corrupt political situation is a direct result of elite capture and sees its own role as that of reclaiming the country for the people.

UDC has used pretty big money as well. They hosted a giant launch party for their presidential candidate Boko and have bought seven branded buses as part of elections campaign. They have disclosed neither their benefactors nor the costs of this fleet.


BCP campaign

The third contender is BCP under the leadership of long time parliamentarian Dumelang Saleshando. BCP will be contesting in 54 constituencies and its manifesto is called 'BCP- Ready to Lead- Leading Botswana Out of the Crossroads. Claiming: "We have a proven track record of stability and sound organization and present in this manifesto clear alternative policies for Botswana, anchored on social democratic principles”.
The ten-point manifesto focuses on the economy, energy and water resources, labour relations, education, land and housing, health, governance, gender equality, youth development, international relations and trade.

BCP also recently unveiled its presidential tour bus, which has visited more than 80 villages before the elections. Saleshando has also used a chopper during the final week of campaigns. Just like the UDC and the BDP, they are secretive about their sponsors – but probably mostly union money.


Media

As usual BDP monopolizes news coverage in the state media. The political rallies addressed by President Khama and his government ministers dominate the headlines in the Daily News, Radio Botswana and Botswana Television. The opposition is hardly featured in the state media.

On the other hand the private media continue to give coverage to all the parties despite their limited resources, but they are not easily accessible in remote areas. So the rural population is at the mercy of propaganda churned out by the state owned media.

Despite the obvious bias against the opposition, Radio Botswana has hosted radio debates for parliamentary candidates. All the candidates have embraced this rather unusual gesture.
The private radio station, GabzFm has done the same. Despite the fact that BDP took part in the planning of these debates, they later boycotted them citing the fact that their nemesis Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions (BOFEPUSU), was one of the sponsors. The BOFEPUSU is on record saying its more than 90,000 members should support UDC. Other GabzFm sponsors are the US Embassy and the British High Commission.


"Death of the left"

Political observers claim that the lavish spending by all the political parties is a signal of the death of the left in Botswana's political landscape. Political analyst Lawrence Ookeditse:

"With the case of Botswana, I see what appears to be a decline of the left actually. In this election, more than any other, our political parties are converging towards the centre. The BDP and BCP are no doubt centre-right parties. The BNF, which has been the bastion of the left, has been hugely diluted by its UDC coalition. The UDC Manifesto is a document that is to the centre-right. The extreme leftists within the BNF are actually among those who have revolted against its joining the Umbrella. The leftists within, such as Dr Elmon Tafa, have also not had much of an influence, given the electoral promises from the UDC are a leaf from neo-liberal economics. Further, Themba Joina of the Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin (MELS) party has also since joined the BCP and his scientific Marxism will no doubt be diluted. Save for isolated acts of defiance and solidarity with trade unions, the left is not any brighter in this country than it ever has been. Perhaps the material conditions of the people in Botswana make it difficult for a revolutionary political party that is leftist. Salvation of the left in Botswana would have been in a growing population of unemployed young people - but that battalion of young people is largely concerned about becoming middle class and petty bourgeoisie.”

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Quality analysis with background about the more sinister sides of BDP rule by Amy Poteete.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201410211490.html

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Poll open 6:30 AM CAT tomorrow morning (= UTC GMT+2 - identicial to current CET) and conclude at 7:00 PM.

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A bit about the economy:

Botswana's GDP grew by 5.4% in 2013 and has experienced consistently high growth since independence – but it is facing an impending crisis.

Botswana's economy depends entirely on diamonds and they could start running out as soon as 2027. At which point GDP could plummet by 45%, according to expert estimates. This would be an economic catastrophe. So diversification is a must.

BDP’s current plan to preempt this is to exploit the country's plentiful but poor quality coal deposits. But getting the coal to market requires the construction of a multi-billion $ railroad, which would likely make the coal too expensive to be competitive – even if Botswana could find someone to fund this massive infrastructure project.

Tourism is a (partial) alternative, but BDP seems to prefer resource extraction to nature.

With a declining democracy  Botswana could go from being one of the richest and most stable societies in Africa to a failed state if something isn't done to reverse the course and think a little out of the box.

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Botswana Gazette's breakdown of the race in the key battlegrounds:

Gaborone:
http://www.gazettebw.com/?p=9265

Province:
http://www.gazettebw.com/?p=9287

Link to Indepedent Electoral Commission (official, despite the name...)
http://www.iec.gov.bw/

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Result:

BDP    320,665    46.6%    37 (–8)
UDC   206,969    30.1%    17 (+11)
BCP   140,304    20.4%     3  (–1)
Ind.    20,178      2.9%      0  (-2)

Apart from media power and the general climate of intimidation, vote splitting in the opposition seems to have been decisive (as usual...). There are a lot of constituencies where UDC/BCP have a majority between them, but BDP won anyway. BDP has lost support in urban areas (UDC got 4 of 5 Gaborone constituencies), but remain dominant in the countryside.

Notably BDP Chairman Daniel Kwelagobe and six former cabinet members are among those not reelected.

Ian Khama to be sworn in as President on October 28, so business as usual.

Observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), declared that the election had been "peaceful, free and fair, transparent and credible, thus reflecting the will of the people of Botswana." Which is likely true, except for the fair bit.

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BCP is down to three seats (despite getting 20%) and their chairman Dumelang Saleshando lost to UDC’s Phenyo Butale in Gaborone Central. So they paid a high price for going solo and it cost the opposition the election. The two oppopsition parties got 50,5% and twelve BDP seats would have been won by a united opposition making it a win 32-25 to the opposition instead of a 20-37 defeat.

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33 new MPs - 18 BDP, 13 UDC and 2 BCP, so more than half the parliament is new. 2 ministers and 4 deputy ministers not reelected.

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Constituency results:

http://www.dailynews.gov.bw/news-details.php?nid=15425

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Minister of Education Mokgweetsi Masisi is elected Vice President, thus finishing President Ian Khama's attempt to create a dynasty by appointing his younger brother Tshekedi as VP and heir apparent. A High Court ruling that the election could not be conducted by show of hands, but had to be by secret ballot made it too risky for Khama to attempt appointing his bro, since a backbencher revolt was more or less guaranteed.

http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Ian-Khama-nixes-brother-as-VP-20141112

Background:

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-11-14-khama-anoints-a-second-choice-successor-in-botswana/#.VGctZMlARSc