Namibia general election - November 28, 2014
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  Namibia general election - November 28, 2014
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Author Topic: Namibia general election - November 28, 2014  (Read 4410 times)
politicus
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« on: October 06, 2014, 11:24:54 AM »
« edited: November 29, 2014, 06:01:02 PM by politicus »

Namibia will be electing both president and parliament on November 28. SWAPO will win both, the question is how big.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namibian_general_election,_2014

Presidential election

Incumbent Hifikepunye Pohamba (SWAPO) is term limited, his successor will in all likelyhood be Prime Minister and SWAPO Vice President Hage Geingob, the oppositions best bid is Hidipo Hamutenya from the Social Democratic RDP, formed by SWAPO defectors in 2007.

Seven other candidates (see Wikipedia).

National Assembly election

90 seats are elected by using the closed party list form of PR. 6 appointed by the President. No threshold and nine parties got in last time, three of them with less than one percent of the vote and four others between 1,0% and 3,5%. Namibia will be using electronic voting machines, as the first country in Africa, and a result will be published 24 hours after the polls close.

Main parties:

South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) is the old Marxist liberation movement from the fight against apartheid South Africa and dominated by Ovambos from northern Namibia. It has ruled Namibia since independence in 1990 and is today a mix of  Social Democracy and pro-business policies, like the other old Commie liberation movements. It got 74.3% and 54 seats last time.

Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) is a Social Democratic party established by SWAPO defectors in 2007 and the only opposition party with any real strength. It got 11.2% last time and 8 seats, but is expected to perform better this time.

Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA) is a Conservative coalition founded in 1977 by moderate Africans and anti-apartheid Whites (mostly Germans). It was the dominant opposition party before the rise of RDP and supported by most of the country's white minority (which gives them an image problem among the African majority). Also includes organizations for Namas, Basters, San and Tswana as well as traditionalist Ovambos. Got halved last time and went down to 3.1% and 2 seats.


Ethnic parties

National Unity Democratic Organization (NUDO) got 3.0% and  2 seats last time. Ethnic party that represents the interests of the Herero people and was part of DTA until 2003, when paramount chief Kuaima Isaac Riruako (died earlier this year) withdrew them and went solo.

United Democratic Front (UDF) is de facto mostly an ethnic party representing Damaras, but the alliance includes organizations for minor ethnic groups such as Caprivians and San (Bushmen) and some small leftist sects. It got 2.4% and 2 seats in 2009.

Namibia Democratic Movement for Change (NDC) is a Damara party led by the former head of the Damara bantustan.

National Democratic party of Namibia (NDP) is a small Ovambo party with roots in the old Ovamboland Independence Party from the 70s.

United People's Movement (UPM) is a new party, that represents the Baster mixed race community in Rehoboth and is vehemently anti-SWAPO.

Democratic Party of Namibia (DPA) represents the interest of Namas and according to themselves also other small ethnic minorities.

Republican Party (RP) small economically liberal party representing the interests of the White minority, has tried to attract non-Whites by criticized the government for sucking up to China and SWAPO dominated unions for accepting abuse of workers from Chinese employers.

Monitor Action Group (MAG) represents conservative Afrikaners and is against affirmative action, land reform and anything else that reduces white privilege.


True leftists

All People's Party (APP) 1.3% (1) is a left wing party with focus on eliminating poverty, legalizing slums and improving human rights. Established in 2008 by defectors from CoD after a power struggle. Campaigns for gay rights and empowerment of ethnic minorities.   

Congress of Democrats (CoD) 0.7% (1) is a Democratic Socialist party founded in 1999. Did well with 7,2% in the 2004 election, but has lost support after APP split off and is losing members to RDP.

South West Africa National Union (SWANU) was founded in 1959 as a Herero liberation movement and is a Socialist and African Nationalist party demanding massive land restribution from white farmers to the poor. Got 0.6% and 1 seat last time.

Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF) is the local version of Malemas South African outfit, just virulently anti-gay. Its anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist fighting against foreign exploitation of Namibia's natural resources and wanting land and natural resources to be owned by the indigenous peoples.

Communist Party (often mentioned by its old name Workers Revolutionary Party -WRP), is a classical Marxist-Leninist outfit with miniscule support (sailors are their best constituency).


Others:

Christian Democratic Voice Party (CDV or CDP with no consistency) is SoCon, but also demands a radical solution to the land issue with fast redistribution and ditching the willling buyer-willing seller concept.

 
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2014, 02:29:05 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2014, 06:47:35 PM by politicus »

Presidential candidates:

Hage Geingob (73) is Prime Minister and SWAPO Vice President. Unlike most SWAPO leaders, he is not from Ovamboland, but a Damara. He joined SWAPO in Botswana in 1963 during the independence struggle and worked as an organizer. Lived in America 1964-75 & 2003-04 and has an MA in international relations from a US university. Vast international experience as SWAPO representative to the US and UN and Director of the United Nations Institute for Namibia, which educated the later civil service of Namibia 1975-89 and Executive Secretary of the Global Coalition for Africa IGO 2003-2004. Namibia's first Prime Minister following its independence in 1990 and in charge until 2002, when he got sacked after a dispute with President Sam Nujoma and lost his seat in the Politburo. Out in the cold 2003-07, but made a comeback as Vice President of SWAPO in 2007 and was Minister of Trade and Industry 2008-2012 before being chosen as Prime Minister in 2012.

 

Hidipo L. Hamutenya (75) SWAPO minister 1990-2004, but lost a bid for the party's presidential nomination in 2004 and left SWAPO three years later to found RDP.
Lived in the North America 1965-76 and got a BA in Political Science and History from Lincoln University, a PD in Development Studies from Syracuse and a Master in Economics from McGill.
SWAPO's Representative to the Americas 1965-72 and Secretary for Education 1974-76, when he joined the Politburo. A founding member of the United Nations Institute for Namibia (UNIN) in Lusaka, where he was Geingob's Deputy 1976-81. Member of SWAPO's negotiating team for the UN Plan for Namibian Independence and Secretary of Information and Publicity 1981-91. Minister for Information and Broadcasting 1990-1993 and Trade and Industry 1993-2002, when he was promoted to Minister of Foreign Affairs. Got fired by Sam Nujoma in 2004 for "inciting division within the party". Left SWAPO and the National Assembly in 2007 to form RDP together with another former minister, Jesaya Nyamu. Got a meagre 10,9% in the 2009 Presidential election, but was elected to the National Assembly.




So two old geezers with tons of experience, who know each other well and both crossed the almighty Sam Nujoma's will in the past and was thrown out in the cold, but one of them clawed his way back and the other left. Hardly the most inspiring  choice for young Namibians.

The best bid for a leader from a new generation is McHenry Venaani (37), an eloquent professional politician and organizer, who in 2013 became the new party president of DTA after beating veteran Katuutire Kaura (73). Venaani is a city boy from Windhoek and was elected to parliament in 2002 as the youngest ever, but lost his seat in DTAs dissastrous 2009 election. Party GS 2003-2005 (when he unsuccesfully tried to oust Kaura and had to spend three years in the cold) and again 2008-2013.

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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2014, 03:00:12 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2014, 06:02:02 PM by politicus »

Some additional facts and figures about the elections:

- According to the Electoral Commission of Namibia sixteen registered parties are participating in the elections (but seventeen mentioned on their website..):

All People's Party (APP)
Christian Democratic Voice Party (CDV)
Congress of Democrats (CoD)
Communist Party
Democratic Party of Namibia (DPN)
Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA)
Monitor Action Group (MAG)
Namibia Democratic Movement for Change (NDC) (seems to be non-registrered)
National Democratic Party of Namibia (NDP)
Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF)
National Unity Democratic Organization (NUDO)
Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP)
Republican Party (RP)
SWANU
SWAPO
United Democratic Front (UDF)
United People's Movement (UPM)

- In the National Assembly elections, voters vote solely for a political party and not an individual candidate.

- Namibia's diplomatic missions abroad as well as seagoing personnel will vote on November 14.

- There will be 1,386 fixed polling stations and 2, 586 mobile polling stations throughout the thinly populated country.

- The population in 2014 is about 2,305,632, Females slightly outnumbers males, with 1,185,092 women, representing 51.45% of the total, compared to 1,118,223 or 48.54% men.

- More than 1.1 million voters are expected to cast their ballots in the polls.
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politicus
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2014, 05:39:07 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2014, 01:06:06 PM by politicus »

DTA is going populist and promises free urban land to ordinary people and free medical school.

http://www.namibian.com.na/indexx.php?id=19809&page_type=story_detail

“Government has been concentrating on providing land for farming purposes, while the majority of Namibians in urban areas cannot afford to buy land. Mind you, most of these people are not farmers and will not know what to do with agricultural land. What they need is land on which they can build their houses”

To boost their liberal pro-business credentials they also promise to "provide mentorship programmes for young entrepreneurs alongside collateral guarantees so that they can acquire loans."

Getting a loan to start for is extremely difficult for young black entrepreneurs as they lack the means to put up collateral.

All in all some sensible liberal suggestions on how to change the extremely skewed black/white wealth distribution and boost a new black middle class of small business/professional home owners in one of the most unequal societies in the world.
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politicus
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2014, 04:57:59 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2014, 05:05:14 AM by politicus »

Interview with RDP's leader on party prospects (incl. whether the election is going to be free and fair), policy differences to SWAPO, also questioned about regionalism/tribalism, leaders family influnce + internal strife.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411100904.html
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2014, 12:24:29 PM »

Public broadcaster NBC has cancelled the two live debates between the presidential candidates-

NBC director general Albertus Aochamub has refused to provide reasons, but opposition party NEFF leader Kalimbo Iipumbu says:

"This is a platform that SWAPO is hiding from. They know Geingob will not be able to stand the questions."

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politicus
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2014, 06:07:05 AM »

An Afrobarometer poll shows that 80% of Namibians vote based on loyalty and not performance, so SWAPO wins despite widespread dissatisfaction.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411190267.html

The BIG mentioned is a Basic Income Grant to all citizens proposed by RDP to combat poverty, SWAPO says the country can not afford it.
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politicus
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2014, 05:20:38 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2014, 07:13:21 AM by politicus »

RDP fear that the elections wont be free and fair and wants UN observers to monitor the election, which are already monitored by SADC.

Information Secretary Jeremiah Nambinga:

"It's not that I don't trust the SADC observers, but we will prefer international observers (sic)"

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411200640.html

Given the "brotherhood" between ANC, SWAPO, Frelimo, MPLA and parties descended from the liberation movements, this may not be unreasonable, but Namibia isn't important enough for the UN to do it.
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politicus
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2014, 07:24:40 PM »

RDP, the Communists (RWP) and an NGO are going to court in order to postpone the election to February to get a poll without EVMs, as they fear using EVMs with no paper trail will allow SWAPO to rig the election.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411251067.html

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politicus
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2014, 01:53:03 PM »

Big problems with the EVMs. Late starts, long ques and voters being turned away at the and of the day, despite promises that everybody would be allowed to vote. CoD chairman claims fraud and want the elections annulled, no chance of that of course.
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politicus
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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2014, 05:35:56 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2014, 05:44:46 PM by politicus »

Results here: http://elections.na/mapserver2014/ers/ElectionHome.aspx

NDC is missing from their map, so it seems to be the non-registrered party among the 17 on the election commissions party list.
(they have always claimed 16 parties are registered and then kept listing 17!)

Communist Party of Namibia shown using their old RWP acronym.
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politicus
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2014, 12:32:19 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2014, 03:41:49 PM by politicus »

The SWAPO margin seems a bit too high to be credible. With 28,4% counted they are at 86% for president and 75,8% for parliament. So the EVMs where probably rigged.

(they got 75.28% in 2009 so I suppose its possible, but with widespread dissatisfaction the opposition should have gained a bit, even if loyalty to SWAPO remains very high)

RDP is heading for a disaster, while DTA is picking up a bit from their horrible 2009 result.
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politicus
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2014, 02:06:19 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2014, 02:08:32 PM by politicus »

Hamutenya is getting trashed. He is at 4%, even behind Venaani from DTA, who is at 5%. Geingob at 87%, this gotta be rigged. Stupid of SWAPO, they would have won comfortably anyway.
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politicus
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2014, 05:08:01 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2014, 06:12:17 PM by politicus »

With 50,5% counted SWAPO is at 77%, DTA at 6,1% and RDP at 3,8% (they got 11.31 last time!). Geingob got 87% in the pres election. The numbers now include votes from all provinces and most of the south has been counted (75-80%). It will likely be close to the final result.

SWPO has gained in the (thinly populated) south and center, lost a bit in the lower north, but increased in most of the far north.

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politicus
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2014, 12:10:22 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2014, 12:21:19 PM by politicus »

Final result:

Turnout 71,8%

Parliament:

SAPO 80,0%
DTA 4,8%
RDP 3,5%
APP 2,3%
UDF 2,1%
NUDO 2,0%
Communists 1,5%
All others below 1%

No seat allocation yet.

President:

Hage Geingob (SWAPO) 86,7%
McHenry Venaani (DTA) 5,0%
Hidipo Hamutenya (RDP) 3,4%
Asser Mbai (NUDO) 1,9%
Henry Mudge (RP) 1,0%
Others 2,1%

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politicus
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2014, 03:32:53 PM »

Elections declared "free and fair" by SADC, no surprise there as they are very friendly in their election assessments. The fair part is at least debatable with massive SWAPO use of government resources and media, but it at least seems technical troubles did not happen disproportionally in opposition strongholds. We will never know if the EMVs were tampered with, that is the problem with no paper trail.

RDP will try to form an alliance with some other small parties to take over the role as "official opposition" from DTA given how badly the opposition did this seems almost ridiculous. McHenry Veraani basically says "let them if they want" in his comments and wont try to co-opt other parties into the DTA.
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politicus
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« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2014, 01:34:05 PM »

It seems that the opposition has accepted the result. The Congress of Democrats is the only party to denounce the election and has called for the polls to be nullified. The Communists will enter parliament for the first times, so they are beating the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters as the voice of the far left, which is kinda nice given the extreme homophobia of the NEEF
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politicus
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« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2014, 06:42:35 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 10:38:42 PM by politicus »

Political journo Johnathan Beukes from "The Namibian" sums up the election:

“It’s not going to be much different. SWAPO rule by committee. Geingob is very headstrong, he will surround himself with technocrats…He has a track record in good public management. It will probably be a bit more efficient [than former President Pohamba’s administration], but it will be very open to business because he’s an unrepentant capitalist. Geingob will make doing business in Nam a lot easier, especially for outsiders, and that’s basically it. I don’t think he will change much, I don’t think Namibia will change much. We’ll continue to have problems with education – our education system is basically in the toilet. Our health system hasn’t been functioning properly for at least 10 years. And then there’s large-scale corruption committed by senior leadership of SWAPO, and nothing ever gets done about any of these cases.”

With 2/3 majority SWAPO can also continue to chage the constitution whnever they want. They rammed 42 constitutional changes through parliament earlier this year, must be some kind of record.
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politicus
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2014, 06:49:25 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 07:23:34 PM by politicus »

Seat allocation:

SWAPO: 77

DTA: 5 (McHenry Venaani. Jennifer Van den Heever. Vipuakuje Muharukua. Elma Dienda, Nicolaas Albertus Smit)

RDP: 3 (Hidipo Hamutenya, Steve Bezuidenhout, Mike Kavekotora)

UDF: 2 (Aphius Auxab, Dudu Murorua)

APP: 2 (Ignatius Shixwameni, Madala Nauyoma)

NUDO: 2 (Asser Mbai, Muendju Janika)

WRP: 2  (Willem Beukes, Benson Kaapala)

RP: 1  (Henk Mudge)

SWANU: 1 (Usutuaije Maamberua)

UPM: 1 (Jan Johannes van Wyk)

Total: 96
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