CT-PPP: Malloy +8

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/519171341023711233

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Stay tuned...

[Free Bird]

I think my heart just sank

[Lief 🗽]

I think my heart just sank

Nah, like Quinn (though obviously to a lesser extent), Malloy is a scrappy survivor. He was supposed to lose by 2-3% in 2010; instead he emerged victorious by 7000 votes.

[Maxwell]

I think my heart just sank

Nah, like Quinn (though obviously to a lesser extent), Malloy is a scrappy survivor. He was supposed to lose by 2-3% in 2010; instead he emerged victorious by 7000 votes.

It was only those last polls that showed Foley up. Most of the campaign had Malloy way ahead.

[IceSpear]

Considering the other polls on this race, a tie would probably be great news for Malloy. PPP also said Ernst was "definitely ahead" which seemed to imply a pretty decent lead, but then only showed her up 2.

[Free Bird]

Considering the other polls on this race, a tie would probably be great news for Malloy. PPP also said Ernst was "definitely ahead" which seemed to imply a pretty decent lead, but then only showed her up 2.

Good point. PPP does have a tendency to sensationalize, but I'll need to look at the crosstabs regardless. Maybe it will be a reverse 2010.

[Miles]

Malloy is up 8.

43/35; the Independent, Visconti, is at 9%.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Massive Outlier. Goes to the trash until another reliable pollster confirms it.

[backtored]

Not surprising. I suspect the same thing will happen in Hawaii and is happening in Kansas and Illinois. Nutmeg State voters are realizing that Foley is, after all, a Republican.

It's too bad, though. People in Connecticut don't like where the state is going and want a new governor. I'd prefer somebody more conservative, but Foley isn't a bad choice at all compared to the incumbent.

Watch Connecticut and Illinois lose more and more capital to Texas and North Carolina.

[backtored]

Massive Outlier. Goes to the trash until another reliable pollster confirms it.

I doubt it. PPP is really good in October. And we all thought the Trib poll showing Quinn up ten was crazy until more polls showed him leading. Same thing with Ernst and Gardner. These are warning shots.  Maybe it isn't eight points, but I bet Malloy really is leading.

Why, Connecticut, why?

[backtored]

Massive Outlier. Goes to the trash until another reliable pollster confirms it.

I doubt it. PPP is really good in October. And we all thought the Trib poll showing Quinn up ten was crazy until more polls showed him leading. Same thing with Ernst and Gardner in the Quinnipiac poll. These are warning shots.  Maybe it isn't eight points, but I bet Malloy really is leading.

Why, Connecticut, why?

[Miles]

Massive Outlier. Goes to the trash until another reliable pollster confirms it.

Eh, maybe not.

This reminds me of another poll PPP did at about this time in 2010. Most others had McMahon getting to within single-digits; PPP came out with Blumenthal up 12.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Nutmeg State voters are realizing that Foley is, after all, a Republican.

Nutmeggers are good at electing Republicans to the statehouse.

Republicans won 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006. Even the independent elected in 1990 was essentially a Republican.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Massive Outlier. Goes to the trash until another reliable pollster confirms it.

I doubt it. PPP is really good in October. And we all thought the Trib poll showing Quinn up ten was crazy until more polls showed him leading. Same thing with Ernst and Gardner. These are warning shots.  Maybe it isn't eight points, but I bet Malloy really is leading.

Why, Connecticut, why?

The trib poll was a joke - it showed Quinn up 11. If we average the polls taken after it, the result is actually a Rauner lead of 0.3%

Here's all the IL-Gov Polls: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_gubernatorial_election,_2014#General_election

Malloy may be leading, but he's definitely not leading by 8.

[IceSpear]

Too bad nobody besides YouCrap is gonna bother polling Connecticut to confirm or deny this.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Too bad nobody besides YouCrap is gonna bother polling Connecticut to confirm or deny this.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another Quinnipiac poll here. Maybe Rasmussen. I don't think SUSA/Suffolk/Ipsos etc. will, but no way to know for sure.

[Free Bird]

Too bad nobody besides YouCrap is gonna bother polling Connecticut to confirm or deny this.

[Gass3268]

Dan the Man!

[KCDem]

Massive Outlier. Goes to the trash until another reliable pollster confirms it.

How can this be an outlier when no one else has polled Connecticut recently?

[Free Bird]

Plus 14 Democrats? Of course, there are more Democrats in CT, but you could have balanced it a bit more since Dems are less likely to vote this year, even with it being an LV poll. I'm going to wait for another poll with similar results to become worried. We should also be noting that Danny boy isn't near 50% and this is fresh off of Foley's atrocious debate performance

[free my dawg]

Told y'all they'd come home.

[Maxwell]

I wanna see if this is confirmed or if this is a massive outlier.

[windjammer]

I trust this poll. If I recall correctly, RCP had mcmahon winning in 2012 for some days and this race had obviously never been competitive, that means the polls had a rep bias.

[homelycooking]

I do wonder if the last name "Foley" might be partially to blame. It really is extraordinary how many times that last name has come up in stories of scandal or depravity, especially right now in Connecticut. Consider:

Tom Foley, Speaker of the House sued to overturn term limit legislation, defeated for reelection,
Mark Foley, pedophile, resigned from Congress in disgrace,
Brian and Lisa Wilson-Foley, illegally hired, and lied about hiring, John Rowland as a campaign advisor,
Mark Foley, ran a porno/exploitation/slasher film business while employed as principal of a middle school in Granby, CT. He was found out last week in a front page article in the Hartford Courant.

None of these people are related to Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley, but voters may be making subliminal associations.

[Maxwell]

I trust this poll. If I recall correctly, RCP had mcmahon winning in 2012 for some days and this race had obviously never been competitive, that means the polls had a rep bias.

Nah, Foley actually improved late in the game in 2010, when he ran. McMahon had the same thing happen to her in 2010 as did 2012, so I don't buy that argument. These are purely different situations.

PPP is a great pollster, but even they make mistakes.