CT-PPP: Malloy +8

[Maxwell]

I think my heart just sank

Nah, like Quinn (though obviously to a lesser extent), Malloy is a scrappy survivor. He was supposed to lose by 2-3% in 2010; instead he emerged victorious by 7000 votes.

It was only those last polls that showed Foley up. Most of the campaign had Malloy way ahead.

[Maxwell]

I wanna see if this is confirmed or if this is a massive outlier.

[Maxwell]

I trust this poll. If I recall correctly, RCP had mcmahon winning in 2012 for some days and this race had obviously never been competitive, that means the polls had a rep bias.

Nah, Foley actually improved late in the game in 2010, when he ran. McMahon had the same thing happen to her in 2010 as did 2012, so I don't buy that argument. These are purely different situations.

PPP is a great pollster, but even they make mistakes.

[Maxwell]

Where are Visconti voters likely to go?

They are Foley-heavy, Foley trails by 6 rather than 8 if Visconti is removed.

[Maxwell]

Where are Visconti voters likely to go?

They are Foley-heavy, Foley trails by 6 rather than 8 if Visconti is removed.

RCP entered the Visconti-removed numbers, but it's strange to see Foley only gaining 2 if Visconti's 9 are taken out.

A third of them go undecided.